XPost: soc.history.what-if, alt.history.what-if   
   From: aspqrz@tpg.com.au   
      
   On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 21:39:25 -0800, The Horny Goat    
   wrote:   
      
   >On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor    
   >wrote:   
   >   
   >>The RAF was benefitting from the Empire Air Training Scheme which   
   >>produced hundreds of pilots and aircrew every month in excess of   
   >>operational needs.   
   >   
   >Was that really true in 1940? I know the Canadian arm of that really   
   >only hit its stride in 1941 and really contributed in  42-43 but   
   >despite the presence of 1st Canadian division in England in September   
   >1940 (when it would have been the most powerful unit in England at the   
   >time of the Sealon that never was - long before 1943-44 when the Yanks   
   >were 'over-sexed, over-paid and over here") I am not aware the RCAF   
   >had much influence during the battle of Britain. And  that was the   
   >largest element of the Empire ATS.   
      
   The Scheme was supposed to train 22000 a year from the UK alone. Sure,   
   the Canadians didn't start until the end of April 1940.   
      
   The first pilots from Australia arrived at the end of October.   
      
   But Britain was already training pilots and, as you can see from the   
   figures I provided, the number of Fighter Pilots increased overall   
   every month ... by hundreds.   
      
   What's interesting is that this figure doesn't cover the actual number   
   of Pilots involved ... the overall figure (Pilots flying at least one   
   sortie) is 2937 ... a thousand more than the 1400 November figure and   
   the 487 losses.   
      
   Figures are all available online.   
      
   >>The thing is, we know all this with the benefit of postwar 20:20   
   >>hindsight ... Churchill didn't know that the RAF was increasing in   
   >>strength vis a vis the Luftwaffe *at the time* ... and Goering didn't   
   >>know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the   
   >>time* ... we only know this from the data becoming available post WW2.   
   >   
   >Interesting - what's your source on this? I've read Churchill's 6   
   >volume history and didn't see any mention of that (those books were   
   >written mostly 1948-52 if that helps)   
      
   Well, the Air Ministry, as noted below, realised that the BoB had been   
   won in 1941.   
      
   I guess Churchill didn't emphasise it partly because it didn't suit   
   the heroic narrative he was selling in those books and partly because   
   he wrote them (IIRC) without specific reference (in them) to any   
   primary or even secondary sources   
      
   >>In fact, the RAF won the BoB handily while the leaders thought it was   
   >>a close run thing, and the Luftwaffe lost the BoB decisively, even   
   >>though the leaders believed they had fought the RAF to a standstill.   
   >>Even so, the Air Ministry had realised by early 1941 that the BoB had   
   >>been won, though the magnitude of the victory wasn't fully understood   
   >>til German records could be examined after the war.   
   >   
   >In fairness Churchill spoke many times on the RAF and he definitely   
   >knew that praising them was very good for public morale.   
      
   Indeed. And selling the heroic myth of 'The Few' played as well after   
   the war.   
      
   Phil McGregor   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)