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   From: atropos@mac.com   
      
   Not an anomaly: 2020's red states have higher murder rates   
      
   The murder rates in Trump-voting states from 2020 have exceeded those in   
   Biden-voting states every year since 2000, according to a new analysis by   
   ThirdWay, a center-left think tank.   
   Why it matters: Republicans have built their party on being the crime-   
   fighting candidates, even as murder rates in red states have outpaced blue   
   states by an average of 23% over the past two decades.   
      
       Four reliably-red states consistently made the top of the list —   
   Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Missouri.   
      
   Driving the news: Third Way's report analyzed homicide data for all 50   
   states from 2000 through 2020, using CDC data.   
      
       They used the 2020 presidential election results to characterize "red   
   states" from the "blue states."   
       The findings build on a previous Third Way report that only analyzed   
   murder rates from 2019-2020. This time, they write, they wanted "to see if   
   this one-year Red State murder epidemic was an anomaly."   
      
   Zoom out: In Oct. 2022 — just before the 2022 midterm elections — a record-   
   high 56% of Americans said there was more crime where they live, per   
   Gallup.   
      
       That included 73% of Republicans and a whopping 51% of Independents.   
       Both parties rushed to spend tens of millions of dollars on crime ads   
   that month.   
      
   Between the lines: The political implications don't always match the   
   reality.   
      
       "Crime has historically been a very potent political issue. It’s also   
   very anecdote driven," said Jim Kessler, Third Way's executive vice   
   president for policy.   
       Murder isn't the only crime committed or discussed, but Third Way hopes   
   to combat the "media and political narrative that crime is a Democratic   
   problem, occurring mostly in big blue cities and fueled by lax policies,"   
   they write.   
      
   What to watch: Democratic messaging on the issue in the 2024 cycle and   
   whether there are renewed divisions between Democratic Party leaders and   
   members of Congress — particularly after party infighting blamed   
   progressives’ “defund the police” slogan for down-ballot losses in 2020.   
      
       President Biden reiterated his views just last week when he told a   
   group of bipartisan mayors gathering in D.C. that handling public safety   
   shouldn't involve defunding police departments.   
      
   Methodology: Data is based on death certificates collected by state   
   registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System. To allow   
   for comparison, Third Way calculated the state’s per capita murder rate,   
   the number of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states by   
   their presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25   
   state split.   
      
      
   https://archive.ph/3Ieuf#selection-555.0-703.371   
      
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