XPost: comp.os.linux.advocacy, comp.os.linux.misc   
   From: nospam@needed.invalid   
      
   On Thu, 10/24/2024 6:23 PM, Lawrence D'Oliveiro wrote:   
   > On Thu, 24 Oct 2024 16:44:38 -0400, bad sector wrote:   
   >   
   >> You don't even have to be a nationalist, motherboards and gpu's (some   
   >> research, automated printed circuit production and little more) costing   
   >> $1000 up are well within domestic margins as it is.   
   >   
   > Why is Taiwan the world capital for computer hardware? Because the   
   > Government had the foresight to support private investment in hardware   
   > manufacturing back in the 1980s, which didn’t fully pay off for close to   
   > another decade. But when it did pay off, it effectively killed off most PC   
   > hardware manufacturing in the US and elsewhere.   
   >   
   > Who in the US is going to take the risk of such a long-term investment?   
   > They weren’t capable then, they’re even less capable now. You don’t   
   even   
   > believe in the idea that Government can be helpful to businesses, as   
   > opposed to being an obstacle to them.   
   >   
      
   Labor cost is an input.   
      
   Some of the materials for domestic production, would be turnkey systems.   
   For example, a solder tunnel is a turnkey system. There can be a lot of   
   automation on some parts of the process. But test and integration is   
   an issue. (Asus might have a thousand women sitting at tables, doing test.   
   we don't have a thousand women sitting at tables doing that in North America.)   
   And anyone who has been remotely near one of our factories,   
   knows what a zoo it is inside. Every factory is a zoo. Even the   
   Asus factory will be a zoo. It's the nature of the beast.   
   Foxconn has 500,000 employees.   
      
   And to give you some idea how the two countries differ, to do a certain   
   repair procedure here (down the street from us), cost $1000. That operation   
   is only suited to a prototype PCB (cost is too high for any other purpose).   
   In Taiwan, the same procedure costs $25. Why ? well one of the reasons,   
   is the Taiwan dude doing them, is doing one after another, all day. He never   
   stops.   
   Our local shop, he is paid to sit on his hands all week, and he does about   
   one a week. This means we could do better, with volume, but ultimately,   
   the pay rate of the two dudes is different. Not by much, but different.   
   The pay scale of a skilled tech worker in the foreign countries has risen   
   since we started offshoring. But it's still profitable to use them.   
   Not all the workers are skilled. The untrained ones are cheaper.   
   Some jobs need knowledgeable staff. There are still a lot of   
   humans that need *constant* supervision (why it is a zoo!).   
   Everyone has to pull on the oars in the same direction.   
   Our workers don't always do that.   
      
   If you automate everything (like Musk tried to do), the cost is high   
   for the equipment, and the profit from your little operation, has   
   to pay off that equipment. The equipment has to be programmed.   
   The maintenance staff to keep everything running, those are skilled   
   individuals. And on any given day, there can be a work stoppage   
   until some code or script is fixed up. In essence, the robots   
   are just as dumb, as some of the people they replaced. One thing   
   humans can do, is for trivial issues, they can work around the issue   
   until the root cause is resolved. Robots won't be doing it that way.   
   And no, don't say the word AI :-)   
      
   *******   
      
   What I didn't mention, is we have none of the humans discussed above.   
   We have no skilled workers. Once their jobs were offshored, they   
   became Uber drivers and UPS delivery people. They're not coming back.   
   we don't have enough professors with the right backgrounds, to   
   teach a new generation of people. There is a long period   
   of rebuilding the industry.   
      
   For example, years ago here, I could stop a guy on the street   
   and ask him if he could solder, and he probably could.   
   If I did that today, the teenager watching TikTok vids   
   on his phone would look up and say "what is solder?".   
   We're devoid of a certain kind of individual. Only some   
   places have clusters of tech workers now.   
      
   Consider a conversation I had with an HR person once, over a beer.   
   we were joking about something, and she tells me "when the resumes   
   come in, if a tech worker has been out of work for a year, I just   
   throw out their resume". She didn't read the resume, to find out   
   what skills she is throwing away. That gives you some idea, of the opinion   
   of HR to the state of the tech workers. Even if there were old farts   
   sitting around typing posts to USENEt, you would not hire them, because...   
   their resume was already thrown in the garbage :-) None of you   
   should be particularly surprised by this. Seeing the barrier yet ?   
   Seeing how difficult it is to bootstrap anything ? That's why my   
   estimate is, it would take twenty years effort to even get close   
   to rebuilding an industry. No business man is that patient. Sorry.   
      
      Paul   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)