XPost: alt.folklore.ghost-stories, alt.dreams.lucid, bionet.neuroscience   
   XPost: alt.paranormal.channeling   
   From: david@edenroad.demon.co.uk   
      
   On Fri, 19 Jan 2007 20:52:07 -0800, h elmer | espeance wrote:   
      
   > nor the fact that occam's razor is a belief   
      
   No it isn't.  It's a logical tool, based on the fact that the simplest   
   explanation usually _is_ the correct one in natural systems.   
      
   It's simple mathematics.   
      
   Look at it this way:   
   If you have two possible explanations, A and B.   
      
   A is a single explanation, and there is a probability p(A) that it   
   is true.   
      
   B is a series of explanations B1, B2, B3...Bn   
      
   Assuming B1..n are independent p(B) is p(B1)*p(B2)*p(B3)...*p(Bn)   
      
   Now, unless p(A) is tiny, is and p(B1..n) are huge, p(A)>p(B)   
      
   In other words, given the above, it is more likely that A is true than B.   
      
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