From: david@edenroad.demon.co.uk   
      
   On Mon, 05 Feb 2007 17:52:43 +0100, Cl.Massé wrote:   
      
   >>> No, it isn't the matter.  Science provided some "likelihoods", and if   
   >>> those likelihoods were used like you did in that thread, no advances   
   >>> would have been done.  Science doesn't provide any proof, it can only   
   >>> falsify theories. So, it can't be used to claim anything.   
   >   
   > "David Mitchell"  a écrit dans le message de   
   > news: pan.2007.02.03.21.36.08.238353@edenroad.demon.co.uk   
   >   
   >> I think you missed the point where I said that estimation of likelihood   
   >> could be used to determine in which order the various explanations for the   
   >> events should be investigated.   
   >   
   > There is no order.   
      
   Of course there is: with a finite number of experimenters and a finite   
   amount of cash (and time) with which to experiment, there must be.   
      
   > An experiment which discriminate the explanations must   
   > be done.   
      
   Doesn't that precisely contradict your previous sentence?   
      
   > An order implies a scale of values: first something serious or   
   > "rational", then something crazy.   
      
   Exactly.   
      
   > By that token, the second option is never   
   > investigated, and the first one goes from failure to failure, which is   
   > claimed to prove nothing, and leads to the sadly famous: "there is no proof   
   > (and no investigation besides.)"   
      
   It depends on how the experiments are constructed.  If there are   
   falsifiable premises in the chain, they can be eliminated quickly; which   
   is to everyone's benefit.   
      
   >> You might need to explain that more fully, I don't understand what you   
   >> mean.   
   >   
   > In the example of Kepler, he thought of a geometrical harmony, set up by   
   > God.  His mathematical description of an orbit then became more likely than   
   > the epicycles theory.   
      
   It doesn't really matter where the inspiration comes from: it's the   
   working out of the mathematics which determines the truth (with the   
   obvious "emperical reality" caveats)   
      
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