XPost: alt.ufo.reports   
      
   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:   
   - Patterns relating weather conditions in Antarctica and frequency of   
     UFO sightings 1900-1999 suggest "something" changed around 1950.   
   - Rather than supporting the idea that the correlation between   
     Antarctic weather and UFO sightings increased suddenly around the   
     end of WWII, perhaps because escaped Nazi scientists set up a base   
     on the continent, the data suggests patterns that had been in   
     operation 1900-1950 suddenly stopped and were replaced by "quieter"   
     relationships between sightings and more remote areas of the   
     continent and nearby deep ocean.   
      
   In prev posts I've looked at how the e.g. spacial distribution of UFO   
   sightings can hint at properties of the underlying phenomena.  E.g. we   
   can determine that ufo sightings in the US seem to be influenced by   
   the placement of military bases, particularly AFB.  Different "types"   
   of UFO almost all seem to fall off in density toward larger   
   concentrations of AFB. Some objects fall off in proportion to the   
   distance from concentrations of AFB, some fall off faster, some slower.   
      
   But now let's look at the *time* distribution of sightings and see if   
   we can answer an old question -- are UFO's operated by Nazi scientists   
   who escaped Germany toward the end of WWII and set up shop at some   
   base in Antarctica?   
      
   Some simple twiddling will confirm there is some kind of affinity   
   between monthly UFO sightings and conditions in the Antarctic.  Some   
   of the relevant "explanation powers" (R2) are reasonably large.  The   
   exact chain of causation is ambiguous and can range from weather   
   conditions created in the SoPo blowing debris around the US that are   
   mistaken for strange objects in the sky, through some kind of aircraft   
   based in Antarctica travel more readily between there and the Americas   
   depending on "local" weather conditions.   
      
   To answer the Nazi UFO question we need to look at how the correlation   
   between Antarctica-related weather and UFO sightings changed over the   
   20th century. Was there some change around WWII and, if so, does it   
   suggest UFO's started to originate from Antarctica? Or does something   
   else seem to have happened?   
      
   To fill in some more background that might influence the reader's   
   thinking we need to note that rumours of an Antarctic Nazi base   
   started to circulate shortly after Germany lodged a claim for part of   
   the continent during the 30s. After invading parts of Scandinavia the   
   Nazi govt attempted to annexe part of Norway's claim to Antarctica.   
   After the war both the UK and US sent military expeditions down there   
   to check the rumors out. I'm not familiar with all the ins and outs   
   but some of what I've read indicate both expeditions tended to   
   concentrate on the Antarctic Peninsula presumably given its relative   
   proximity to S America (perhaps in particular Argentina).   
      
   So given all these various nebulous facts, what do we expect?   
   If water temperatures off the Antarctic coast seem to predict UFO   
   sightings in the US over the 20th cent, do we expect this relationship   
   increased suddenly around the end of WWII or do we expect it decreased?   
      
   I would argue if UFO's are supposed to originate at a base in   
   Antarctica set up in the 1940s and operating ever since then we should   
   *expect* the correlation between conditions in the Antarctic and UFO   
   sightings e.g. in the US should suddenly have increased around the end   
   of WWII.  Maybe they rose and fell a bit since then, but there should   
   be a much higher correlation after the "setup of the base" than beforehand.   
      
   Given the paucity of some of the data below it all has to be handled   
   very carefully we don't introduce any biases. I use a s/w package that   
   tries to "homogenise" (i.e. remove bias) from data its given using   
   various mostly simple techniques. Using the UFO sighting data from the   
   NUFORC database it took the monthly numbers from 1900-2000 and   
   "ironed" them to account for changes in US population, changes in   
   methodology, and missing data (which predominantly lives in the period   
   1900-1950 in this exercise).   
      
   Missing data in particular is a worry. There are numerous methods to   
   estimate missing data. But we can't use them here.  "Guessing" at data   
   that is otherwise missing will tend to introduce noise and make   
   correlations smaller. If there is more missing data in the 1900-50   
   period than in the 1950-2000 period then we are biasing the result --   
   we are reducing the correlations for the 1st 1/2 of the 20th cent in   
   relation to those in the 2nd half.  And this would give us a false result.   
      
   So the s/w does not estimate missing values at all. It only uses the   
   numbers we have measured. And this in itself leads to more   
   complications for statistical tests, but the s/w is supposed to be   
   able to handle that.   
      
   So the table we get is thus:   
      
   data            correlation (R2) between data and NUFORC monthly ufo sightings   
                   c20             1930-50         1950-70   
   ocean-60dep1000 0.0368426       nil             0.164162	*   
   ant160          0.0316147       0.107255        0.0693065   
   ant140          0.0276233       0.833305        0.0843708   
   lat-80          0.0271078       0.29937         0.00621208   
   arc-90          0.0267563       nil             0.00938717	*   
   ant150          0.0264957       0.097701        0.0813875   
   ant130          0.0253734       0.128925        0.042244   
   ocean-80dep0    0.0251416       nil             0.00988108	*   
   ant170          0.022851        0.16174         0.0561528   
   stormseg-90     0.0221058       0.0888908       0.00833896   
   ant-160         0.0219791       0.175104        0.0156734   
   ant-150         0.0217034       0.205564        0.0188159   
   ant-170         0.0185683       0.206246        0.0181962   
   arc-80          0.0183147       nil             0.029617	*   
   ant-10          0.017503        0.0637775       nil   
   ant100          0.0173873       0.122475        0.0186838   
   ant60           0.0169002       0.086368        0.0223843   
   ant-180         0.01664         0.233454        0.0217722   
   ant0            0.016411        0.0676842       nil   
   ant-140         0.0160485       0.232104        0.0155224   
   ant10           0.0160342       0.0879714       0.00575712   
   ocean-70dep1000 0.0157767       0.0860524       0.0153943   
   ant40           0.0155558       nil             0.0338617	*   
   ocean-60dep0    0.0152184       nil             0.0131574	*   
   lat-70          0.0145588       0.124074        0.0213232   
   ant90           0.01445         0.0931583       0.0415367   
   ant-20          0.0142866       0.0805802       0.00665689   
   ocean-60dep10   0.0140117       nil             0.00841425	*   
   ant80           0.0134908       0.0701346       0.0262705   
   ant110          0.0133603       0.122092        0.0215954   
   ant-130         0.0133318       0.215073        0.0135993   
   ant20           0.013225        0.122794        0.0113221   
   ant-80          0.0129412       0.158483        0.0092757   
   ocean-70dep1    0.012267        nil             0.0123914	*   
   ant30           0.0120639       0.0949931       0.0158063   
   ant50           0.0120521       0.0425647       0.0297215   
   ocean-70dep500  0.0119995       0.131864        0.0203876   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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