XPost: alt.ufo.reports   
      
   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:   
   - Using a slightly modified procedure from last time we find the best   
     match between the distance to each planet and UFO sightings data. We   
     expect the further a planet is from earth the less often it might be   
     worth making the trip.   
   - By adding in a lag of 0..6m we can roughly estimate how fast any UFO   
     trip between various planets and the earth takes.  If they are "real   
     ET's" and come from some other star we'd expect at least some UFO's   
     to zip around pretty fast.   
   - The "most likely" model shows sightings of Disk type UFO's appear to   
     ebb and flow in relation to the distance to Uranus but lagged by 2 months.   
   - An average trip between Uranus and Earth seems to clock a Disk at   
     850 km/sec. Quick by NASA standards but definitely not   
     interstellar.   
      
      
   In a previous post we looked at the connection between planetary   
   positions and UFO sighting numbers.   
      
   If UFO's have a "space capability" as scuttlebutt from former military   
   intel people suggests we might suspect that the closer some planet or   
   planets are to earth, the more often UFO's might try out that   
   capability. We might expect if we lined up the data on how far   
   different planets were from earth month by month, there might be a   
   beyond-chance correlation between the distance data and the sighting data.   
      
   And that's what we found. In fact we found that certain UFO types seem   
   to be associated with different planets. Some seem to be seen most   
   often when the earth is approx at its closest to Pluto, some are   
   correlated with the distance to Neptune and Uranus, and a couple types   
   are correlated with the distance to Mercury and Venus.   
      
   It seems the folks in question could be well-travelled.   
      
   But now the $64 question. How fast can they move over distance?  If   
   UFO's are related to interstellar ET then we'd expect at least some   
   form of UFO could be shown to zip around the solar system at near   
   light speeds. At least.   
      
   If, OTOH, no UFO can be associated with high speed interplanetary   
   trips then we need to knock off a few points from the probability   
   UFO's are connected with interstellar folks. Of course there would   
   still be the possibility interstellar craft are not often see around   
   the atm.   
      
   But how to figure out how fast UFO's can move?   
      
   The principle we'll use is pretty simple. Instead of seeing if the   
   stance to Pluto correlates with UFO sightings in the same month, we'll   
   lag the distance data and see if the distance to Pluto X months back   
   correlates with the UFO sighting numbers now.  By trying different lag   
   periods we'll get a feel if trip times with associated planets take   
   essentially no time or maybe several months.   
      
   Adding in the little mod to run various lags from 0 to 6 months we run   
   our little program from last time that compares each type of UFO   
   ("shape") against each planet in the solar system and finds which set   
   of parameters gives the highest R2, the so-called "explanation power"   
   of a simple regression.   
      
   Here are the top10 results ordered desc by R2:   
      
      
   UFO type	Planet	Long	Transf	Lag	R2   
   			(rev)		(m)   
   Disk		uranus	0.499		2	 0.31509701   
   Disk		uranus	0.601	x	1	 0.31333694   
   Disk		uranus	0.601		1	 0.30427910   
   Disk		neptune	0.165		3	 0.30330987   
   Disk		neptune	0.583		4	 0.30285802   
   Disk		neptune	0.583	x	4	 0.30257089   
   Disk		neptune	0.761	x	2	 0.30045173   
   Disk		neptune	0.513	x	5	 0.30027118   
   Disk		uranus	0.499	x	2	 0.29999309   
   Disk		pluto	0.970	x	6	 0.29173311   
      
      
   All the top results refer to "Disk" type UFOs. If seems the   
   month-to-month distance to Uranus matches around 32% of the   
   month-to-month variation in number if Disk UFO sightings as recorded   
   by NUFORC.   
      
   The Long and Transf columns say how the s/w forced the best match it   
   could. The details are not important at the moment.   
      
   The Lag column shows us how many months later the best match was   
   found.  In line 1 is shows Disk sightings are best matched against the   
   distance to uranus 2 months ago.  I.e. consistent with the idea it   
   takes around 2 months over the average distance between Uranus and   
   earth before a Disk UFO ends up as a "sighting" statistic.   
      
   Since Uranus is around 30 AU from the earth on average, that puts the   
   speed of a Disk around 850 km/sec.   
      
   Definitely not an interstellar speed.   
      
   While the estimate may be rough, it seems "0 time" transit between   
   planets is not a UFO thing. The data had every chance to throw up a "0   
   lag" as one of the top 10 models and it didn't show up. So trips   
   taking at least 1m seems to be the norm.   
      
   --   
   60 years ago today, Ham the chimp made history. But his story didn't end there   
   ABC/The Conversation, 30 JanJan at 10:00pm   
   On Jan 31, 1961, an intrepid chimpanzee called Ham was launched on a   
   rocket from Cape Canaveral in the United States, and returned to Earth alive,   
   writes Alice Gorman.   
      
   [The bad news keeps on commin!]   
   An electric race car has lapped Daytona for the first time   
   Ars Technica, 31 Jan 2021 16:42Z   
   The annual 24-hour race at Daytona International Speedway in Florida got   
   underway on Sat afternoon. And this year's race has been a pretty good   
   one so ...   
      
   [It's a generational thang!]   
   GameStop mayhem hits close to home for co-founder's son, who's active on   
   WallStreetBets   
   CNBC, 31 Jan 2021 13:41Z   
   Ben Kusin, whose dad co-founded the predecessor to GameStop in the 1980s, is   
   an avid follower of the WallStreetBets forum on Reddit.   
      
   Here's How a 635 Million-Year-Old Microfossil May Have Helped Thaw   
   'Snowball Earth'   
   ScienceAlert, 31 Jan 2021 16:43Z   
   An international team of scientists in South China accidentally discovered   
   the oldest terrestrial fossil ever found, about 3 times more ancient   
   than the oldest ...   
      
   This Ammonite Was Fossilized Outside Its Shell   
   The New York Times, 31 Jan 2021 10:42Z   
   The bizarre fossil is one of very few records of soft tissue in a creature   
   better known as a whorled shell.   
      
   [Redux!]   
   [UPDATE] NWS Issues Winter Storm Warning, 17 Inches Of Snow Expected In NYC   
   Gothamist, 31 Jan 2021 16:32Z   
   The latest forecast says over a foot of snow is likely.   
      
     How much snow did we get in 1979?   
     Jan 1979 was a record breaking month in terms of both snowfall and   
     arctic cold temperatures. From Jan 12th to the 14th, a winter storm   
     dumped an estimated 18.4 inches of snow. This was a record amount for a   
     single snowstorm.   
     -- weather.gov   
      
   A68a iceberg in Antarctica suffers another major split   
   Daily Mail, 29 Jan 2021   
   The ill-fated Atlantic iceberg A68 that broke off from Antarctica in 2017   
   has suffered another major spilt, creating a smaller berg called A68g.   
      
   Is there life on Mars? Not if we destroy it with poor space hygiene   
   The Guardian, 30 Jan 2021 22:34Z   
   Next month, 3 new spacecraft arrive at Mars. Two represent firsts for   
   their countries of origin, while the third opens a new era of Mars   
   exploration. The first is ...   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)