EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We've seen some UFO activity in the US/N Am seems to be linked with
objects coming over the pole from outback Siberia (and more
specifically, some big islands in the Kara Sea).
- But does this mean Russia is the "origin" of UFO activity? Is the
Russian govt or a group of secret technologists based in Siberia
building these things and worrying the Hell out of weak-minded
people like me and some Pentagon brass?
- It seems not. A rather long presentation and rationale for the
present AI s/w I'm using suggests Russia itself is the destination
of yet other UFO activity that seems connected with the same laundry
list of locations and regions we've seen US activity also linked to
-- i.e. mostly the polar seas and some other mid-ocean locations
that seem to be deep deep deep.
- In this case the s/w picks up a slew of locations that all seem
related to "the usual suspects" via ocean temperature and daily
earthquake counts. It seems warmer water some places and more than
usual number of daily mag 6 jolts gets the things buzzing over
Russia in much the same way the some things get the same things
buzzing over the US or NZ for that matter. (Other data suggest
there is a "big region" S of AUS and NZ that seems to be something
like a Bermuda Triangle of the Southern Ocean except it's waaay bigger).
- I've left a slew of graphs at showing the
regions that link with UFO activity in Russia, as well as similar
plots for various other countries incl Scandinavia, Germany, India,
China, etc.
In a prev post we looked at possible "origins" of UFOs seen across N
America. Using daily NOAA sat data for the Arctic we tried to find
locations 60N-90N that seemed to have a high correlation with daily
UFO sightings data.
The sat data allowed us to estimate density of seaice and we assumed
that (perhaps) less seaice day to day might allow more UFO activity to
be seen across Canada and the US.
The data seemed to confirm these assumptions and even at gross
resolution -- we divided the region between N Canada and N
Russia/China into only an 8 x 8 grid -- we could "see" there was a
"high probability track" between the Kara Sea off Siberia and Alaska.
While there is nothing particularly new about this it's nice the data
backs some long-standing ideas of UFO's flying over the pole from N
Russia. In the "old country" (N Norway aka Lapland) it's well-known
various strange objects have had a habit of coming in over the sea
from the general direction of Siberia starting around the end of WWII.
But there is immediately a question. Does this activity have much to
do with "Russia" per se? Or are remote Russian regions simply hosting
something that's otherwise beyond the control and/or knoeledge of the
govt and/or population?
We can run some numbers to check. If N Am activity seems liked with N
Russia, where in the world is linked with Russian UFO activity?
The first problem is data on Russian UFO sightings is relaytively
diffuclt to come by. While Russian UFO groups exist and collect data
on UFO activity, not much of it makes its way to the web AFAIK.
So we are forced to fall back to the well-know US sources of UFO data.
And they are not all that well-used by people in Russia or its former
Republics.
By aggregating sources from Russia and some of the "stans" in the
NUFORC database we get a thin dataset at monthly resolution:
Year.MM Count
1970.46 1
1990.54 1
1992.54 1
2000.54 1
2005.04 1
2008.04 1
2009.54 1
2010.46 1
2011.71 1
2012.29 1
2012.46 1
2012.88 1
2012.96 2
2013.12 1
2014.71 1
2015.04 1
2015.29 1
2016.62 1
2018.54 1
2018.62 1
2020.38 1
2020.71 1
It seems impossible this will show us anything.
Ye of little faith! :)
One of the reasons I began study in this area was to explore the uses
of data science and AI to an area of "fringe science". One of the
major reasons the fringe is the fringe is that results are few and far
between and the possible explanations are so far off the beaten path
people otherwise well-qualified in science are "afraid" to poke around
in there for fear of ridicule and/or anyway not finding anything using
traditional tools.
AI s/w is not so limited. It can be given a set of algorithms to do
statistical tests and a set of heuristics and/or rules to evaluate the
results. Then it can just grind the gears for days on end until it can
separate out a possible overall explanation for some phenomena that
stands out from all the others. There is the possibility the AI can
poke into areas that ostensibly have nothing to do with the subject at
hand where a tranditional scientist would make no connection or
dismiss the link out of hand.
So the s/w I have so far does a very simple job of achieving the goal
of an AI analyzing its subject matter. Call it a model of what I'm
aiming at eventually.
Using a backgroudn database of "everything" it can get its hands on,
possibly expanding it on the fly by autmatically uploading and
"ironing" data from the web, the current s/w uses its experience from
past analyses and the heuristics I supplied to try to find the "best
explanation" of a nominated data set.
Its experience allows it to "quickly" run through the most likely
things it has in its database that might link to the dataset and then
curn very slowly through those data that pass the initial filter, to
find a set of likely candidates which it can rank and finally proclaim
a "winner" or "winners".
In this simple version the "theories" the AI is hypothesising and
testing are very simple -- that a given dataset is explained by single
data series it has in its database.
In a (much) later version we'll try to aim at having the AI pose much
more sophoisticated theories than "I think X explains dataset Y" to
detailed ideas that might take a page of English to explain.
To get back to the subject at the top, we'll let the AI s/w loose on
the Russian sighting data and see which variable in the database seems
to best explain the activity. We drop a hint to the AI we are more
interested in explanatory datasets that have some kind of "location"
attached to them. E.g. the temperayture of some region, or a
measurement taken at some specific location.
And so the s/w crunched away for a day or so skimming through (now)
100s of 1000s of possible datasets, estimating 90% of them would not
be related based on past experience, then doing a detailed study for
each one trying to assure the results were each and every as
statistically robust as it was possible to make them.
Drumroll.....
And the results for "Russia UFO sightings" turned out to be (showing
"top20" results only):
Explanatory Lag Filter R2
variable (m)
cosmic-ERV3 3 2 0.86580263
gav5904470 1 2 0.79136431
gav5904766 3 2 0.65192667
gav5904186 12 2 0.54177377
qband60 0 2 0.44211171
qiceland 0 2 0.44211171
qnepal 0 2 0.44001058
5904854 3 2 0.41752486
gav5904395 12 1 0.39109553
gavqethiopia 12 2 0.30599732
gav5904187 12 2 0.30579050
5904685 3 1 0.27100805
[continued in next message]
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)
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