EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   
      
   - We look at yet another model of UFO interplanetary flight, this time   
     using detailed day by day planetary positions from an ephemeris s/w.   
   - All flights are assumed to start on a single planet -- either Jup,   
     Sat, Ura, Nep, or Plu -- and all travel to Earth is in a straight   
     line at constant speed.  We don't bother to handle any intersection   
     of the flight and another planet or the Sun.   
   - Assuming flights start equally on any day of the epoch we gather the   
     distribution of end dates and compare that against UFO sightings   
     over time.   
   - It turns out the "most likely" parameters have UFO's mostly starting   
     from Neptune and transit speeds being a constant .25 AU/d -- approx   
     450 km/sec.   
   - A previous exercise -- using lagged regressions with some ambiguity   
     related to when a transit might start in relation to the minimum   
     distance between the origin and Earth -- estimated a speed around   
     850 km/sec.   
   - Whatever. It doesn't seem that observations of UFO's are consistent   
     with them being interstellar visitors unless they're tooling around   
     the solar system in their dad's old bug.   
      
      
   We have looked in a prev post at a simple model that attempted to   
   estimate characteristics of UFO interplanetary flight (if any :).   
      
   By matching planetary positions with a lag against UFO sightings we   
   saw it seemed possible to guesstimate the origin of at least some   
   chunk of objects as well as the transit time between there and here   
   (i.e. approx 2x the lag).   
      
   In this current study we will wind up the elastic bands one more turn.   
   But using an ephemeris s/w that can estimate planetary positions day   
   by day over the past 100 y we can determine which transit   
   characteristics best match the observed UFO activity and how well   
   that match might be.   
      
   We shall leave open whether the objects in question and piloted,   
   remote-controlled, autonomous, that some may be non-intelligent   
   lifeforms of some kind, garbage blowing around our neighbourhood, or   
   other possibilities.   
      
   We just want an idea of where a good chunk of them most likely   
   originate and how quick they seem to make the trip from there to here.   
      
   So we had to write a little program that generates all the   
   possibilities and then matches them up against UFO observations and   
   determines which set of parameters most closely matches what is   
   actually seen.   
      
   At this stage our navigation model will be as simple as possible.   
   While we might suspect and at some future time test various overall   
   characteristics of different kinds of potential "drives" --   
   e.g. manipulation of gravitation, E2 motors using zero-point energy,   
   reacting against planetary and solar magnetic fields with rotating   
   super-magnets, space warping (one of the favorites some places I hear   
   :), or whatever -- we'll keep it simple.  All transits will be assumed   
   to be straight lines at constant speed.   
      
   We'll try a limited number of "bins" for the interplanetary speed   
   "all" UFO's are presumed to be transiting at from .25 AU/d through 5   
   AU/day.   
      
   And we'll presume the UFO's *could* start from their point of origin   
   at any time but if they can't finish the transit in a reasonable time   
   because their origin and Earth separate too far during the trip then   
   they never reach Earth.   
      
   All objects that finish the transit are assumed to be amenable at   
   least in principle to observation. But we shall estimate some   
   parameters to fit the observations as well as possible and therefore   
   allow for some objects being missed. Who knows? Maybe some of them are   
   cloaked or sommin. :)   
      
   We we run the little program and produce an R2 ("explanation power")   
   of how close the supposed distribution of arrival days matches the   
   observed UFO's of all types (as per the NUFORC database -- my fave at   
   present) we get the following table:   
      
   Origin	Speed		R2   
   nep	.25		0.83590922   
   nep	.5		0.80851578   
   nep	.75		0.77732549   
   sat	2		0.74966230   
   sat	2.5		0.73125946   
   plu	.25		0.61194268   
   plu	.5		0.59764643   
   sat	.25		0.58667688   
   sat	3		0.54431452   
   sat	1.5		0.44392068   
   nep	1		0.42600787   
   ura	.25		0.40653193   
   ura	.75		0.38090584   
   ura	.5		0.35551253   
   nep	4		0.23051973   
   nep	3.5		0.22511261   
   ura	1.5		0.18121918   
   plu	3		0.17378126   
   plu	.75		0.17217214   
   plu	3.5		0.12992141   
   plu	1		0.12672803   
   sat	.5		0.11921899   
   [Others with R2<.1].   
      
   It seems no combination sees an origin of Jupiter (or environs) match   
   at better than an R2 of 10%.   
      
   OTOH Saturn that is well-known to match the rise and fall of UFO   
   sightings fairly well, with an avg speed of 2 AU/d matches around 75%   
   of UFO sightings. Which seems incredibly high given we suspect 90% of   
   UFO sightings are mundane stuff like Starlink and weather balloons.   
      
   Pluto with a speed of .25 AU/d also matches fairly well at R2=61%.   
      
   But the best match and mostly likely set of parameters given this   
   simple model is Neptune with a UFO interplanetary speed of .25 AU/d.   
      
   While it's unlikely (given other data) all or even 83% of UFO's come   
   from Neptune, it is surprising that an interplanetary speed of "only"   
   .25 AU/d -- 432 km/sec -- is the "best" model (of those tried).   
      
   We recall the previous simple method just relying on lagged   
   regressions estimated travel speed was roughly 850 km/sec.   
      
   --   
   Upcoming events:   
   9 Jul 2021		NOAA billion Dollar Disasters Q2   
      
   Australian Defence not looking at UFOs despite landmark report to US Congress   
   ABC News, 26 Jun 2021 05:02Z   
   Australia's Department of Defence says it has no protocols to record   
   or analyse UFO sightings, despite a report urging the US government to   
   give more attention to military sightings.   
   [For some reason the UK and AUS are not taking UFO's seriously and, if   
   anything, seem to be repressing reports harder than the US ever   
   did. There seems to be a pattern for how transparent national UFO   
   programs are and it has something to do with market capitalization and   
   our old pals the oil biz. If there confirmed high-tech gizmos whizzing   
   around the Earth that don't use gasoline that maybe could undermine   
   the status quo].   
      
   [The Big Report: "A tictac ate my homework"!]   
   US report on Pentagon-documented UFOs leaves sightings unexplained   
   The Jerusalem Post Blogs, 25 Jun 2021 21:03Z   
   It is not the first official US government report on the subject. For   
   example, the US Air Force carried out a previous UFO ...   
   [The released document is very thin on detail or analysis.  Apparently   
   the culmination of 70y of military investigation, about 1/2 of the 9   
   pages is begging for more time to gather data and devise techniques to   
   analyze it. I liked the part about "observations seem to cluster   
   around US military sites...  but that may be because for this report   
   we ignored all data except sightings by US military personnel over the   
   last 15y". The report says there appears to be a mix of phenomena   
   related to UFO's, it is not sure whether any advanced technology is   
   involved, but also concludes the objects "may be" a threat to aircraft   
   and national security].   
      
     Rep. Adam Schiff Releases Statement on UFO Report   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)