XPost: sci.skeptic, alt.atheism, alt.ufo.reports   
   XPost: alt.alien.research   
   From: jtem01@gmail.com   
      
   Now wait a minute, wait..wait..wait..   
      
   Most people, nearly all, will tell you that, yes, they do   
   believe that there are other civilizations outside of the   
   Earth. That, space is just so big, so infinite is size that   
   no matter how small we make the odds we are left with huge   
   numbers of inhabited worlds.   
      
   Think of this:  If all we do is assume that maybe there's   
   one civilization to arise, on average, for every single   
   GALACTIC CLUSTER, that still leaves us with half a trillion   
   alien civilizations.   
      
   Oh. A "Galactic Cluster" is literally what it sounds like,   
   which is to say a cluster of galaxies.   
      
   Yes galaxies appear to cluster in groups.   
      
   We're talking 100, maybe even 1,000 galaxies per cluster,   
   and if we assumed that they average even just one single   
   intelligent species per cluster, we're looking at half a   
   trillion or more alien civilizations surrounding us...   
      
   So the numbers are BIG.   
      
   This same argument or "Logic" can be applied to alien craft.   
      
   NOTE:  "Alien craft" doesn't have to be manned. We've sent   
   plenty of tech out into space yet, apart from our own moon,   
   we don't as a rule send people. Just machines.   
      
   Next...   
      
   Already we here on the planet Earth can detect "Biosignatures"   
   on other worlds more than 100 light years away.   
      
   A "Biosignature" would be anything placed in the atmosphere by   
   life. Oxygen, here on earth, comes from life. Methane, here on   
   Earth, is likewise a biproduct of life... on & on & on...   
      
   So the point is that we can identify "Biosignatures" out beyond   
   100 light years from us, already, yet we haven't even been in   
   the exoplanet game for 40 years yet!   
      
   If an alien species is exactly as technologically advanced as   
   we are, and within 100 light years, they know that we're here.   
      
   They know that there's life on this Earth.   
      
   Now imagine if they are as advanced as we are -- not any more   
   high tech then us here on Earth -- but their priorities are   
   completely different. Maybe what we invest into the military   
   is what they invest into space exploration. In which case, they   
   might've found us a decade or more ago!   
      
   The point is that we don't have to imagine Star Trek or a   
   Flash Gordon scenario here. A civilization's priorities may   
   be a larger factor in their ability to spot us then even   
   there level of technology. They might be a few decades behind   
   us, but simply spent the bucks where we wouldn't...   
      
   Yeah space is huge and they could be looking but still managed   
   to miss us, or haven't gotten around to us yet, more likely,   
   but if they exist they can spot us. They can know life is here.   
      
   That's it.   
      
   The planet has been broadcasting the fact that there's life   
   down here -- via biosignatures -- for BILLIONS of years already,   
   so time doesn't even seem to be a factor....   
      
   So, let's guesstimate here:  If we've been visible for billions   
   of years, and they could exist anywhere out beyond 100 light   
   years in any direction, what are the odds that someone sends a   
   probe to inspect this life-bearing world that they see?   
      
   Well. Even if it only happens once in a million years, there's   
   been over 60 since the dinosaurs went extinct. There's been   
   some 500 or more since the Cambrian explosion. There's been two   
   to three since the genus Homo (humans) evolved...   
      
   At once every 100 million years there's been at least five since   
   the Cambrian Explosion.   
      
   At once every billion years there's been 2 since the Great   
   Oxidation Event...   
      
   It's just one of those things where no matter how big we make   
   the numbers, there's been so much time and space is so   
   incomprehensibly large that we still have alien craft buzzing   
   the earth.   
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
   --   
   https://jtem.tumblr.com/tagged/The%20Book%20of%20JTEM/page/5   
      
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