XPost: sci.skeptic, alt.atheism, alt.alien.research   
   XPost: alt.alien.visitors   
   From: jtem01@gmail.com   
      
   Best evidence FOR the existence of UFOs?   
      
   The very best evidence?   
      
   Hmm...   
      
   I would say that it has to be the math.   
      
   The odds.   
      
   The galaxy -- never mind the universe, THE GALAXY -- is just so huge   
   that there has to be other life. And, the galaxy is just so old that   
   there had to be civilizations that did once exist but are extinct now.   
   And in both cases, the distances are so vast that all of them could   
   have sent a probe our way and it's still traveling here...   
      
   If our galaxy is 100,000 light years across, and many estimates say   
   it's much bigger than that, then 99% of it lies more than a   
   thousand light years away.   
      
   And 75% would lie at least 25,000 light years away...   
      
   A probe from a civilization could realistically reach us a good   
   100k to a million years AFTER the senders have gone extinct...   
      
   So what I'm saying is that the pool of potential "probe senders"   
   is huge, encompassing civilizations that are already extinct and   
   not just one in existence right now....   
      
   The odds say SOMEBODY has sent tech our way!   
      
   My usual argument is that even if it happens ONCE every million   
   years, there's been like... what? Maybe 65 or 66 since the   
   dinosaurs were wiped out.   
      
   There's been like 500 since the Cambrian Explosion.   
      
   There's been more than 2,000 since The Great Oxidation Event.   
      
          ...and that's if only one civilization ANYWHERE sends a   
   probe as infrequently as once every 1 million years.   
      
   Even at 1 every 10 million years there's been 50 since the   
   Cambrian Explosion...   
      
   LIFE HAS BEEN DETECTABLE ON EARTH FOR BILLIONS OF YEARS!   
      
   Billions.   
      
   We already have the ability to detect biosignatures out beyond   
   100 light years, and space is a VERY low priority for us!   
      
   And we've only been in the hunt for exoplanets for... what? Less   
   than 40 years!   
      
   Imagine if a civilization were just as old as ours, just as   
   advanced but prioritized space exploration and the search for   
   life?   
      
      
   Anyway, the odds say that SOMEBODY has sent tech our way.   
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
   --   
   https://jtem.tumblr.com/tagged/The%20Book%20of%20JTEM/page/5   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
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