XPost: sci.skeptic, alt.atheism, alt.conspiracy   
   XPost: alt.alien.research, alt.ufo.reports   
   From: f00@0f0.00f   
      
   JTEM wrote:   
   >   
   > If we find an inhabited world, an intelligent species then   
   > chances are they're a ignorant, primitive society.   
   >   
   > Every so called "Intelligent" species would have to experience   
   > a primitive stage.   
   >   
   > This is inescapable.   
   >   
   > No planet is going to spontaneously spawn life only for it to   
   > immediately climb out of the primordial ooze & build super   
   > computers.   
   >   
   > No. Not going to happen...   
   >   
   > Humans existed for MILLION OF YEARS before any of us left   
   > evidence for the controlled use of fire, let alone metallurgy.   
   >   
   > The genus Homo -- "Humans" -- officially begins with Homo habilis,   
   > conventionally dated back about 3 million years... though the   
   > oldest fossil of which is considerably younger.   
   >   
   > If you Google it, the usual suspects (Wikie, Google A.I.) are   
   > going to give you ridiculously old dates but the truth is that   
   > we find evidence for the spread of fire back hundreds of   
   > thousands of years, not millions...   
   >   
   > The oldest throwing spear is around 400k years old, btw. But   
   > after 300K years or so they disappear from the archaeological   
   > record... don't show up again for quite a while...   
   >   
   > The point is, if you didn't know, humans went through a lengthy   
   > primitive stage before ever achieving industrialization, and   
   > even then it took centuries to go from the Industrial Revolution   
   > to space.   
   >   
   > So a primitive stage is necessary, all "Intelligent" species   
   > must pass through a primitive stage, but nobody is required to   
   > graduate to an advanced stage.   
   >   
   > Nope.   
   >   
   > If you graphed all the so called "Intelligent" species in the   
   > universe it would look something like a pyramid -- the greatest   
   > number at the bottom, the most primitive species, tapering off   
   > to the smallest number of highly advanced species, so rare they   
   > actually form the point!   
   >   
   > Why?   
   >   
   > Because all so called "Intelligent" species would enter a   
   > primitive stage, but not all would leave it.   
   >   
   > Humanity was nearly wiped out entirely, rendered extinct, by   
   > a "Super Volcanic Eruption," less than 80k years ago. And as   
   > bad as it was, there were worse. There were bigger, more   
   > catastrophic eruptions in the earth's past.   
   >   
   > Asteroids? Like the one that ended the dinosaurs?   
   >   
   > Disease.   
   >   
   > An unfortunate Gamma Ray Burst could be a planet killer...   
   >   
   > Ever hear of "Snowball Earth?" The odds of an intelligent   
   > species surviving one of those lie somewhere between ZERO   
   > and NIL...   
   >   
   > And then out of the "Intelligent" species that made it though   
   > a primitive stage without some natural catastrophe wiping them   
   > out, there's always self destruction.   
   >   
   > Nuclear war. Biological warfare. Chemical warfare.   
   >   
   > Read any of the A.I. doomsday scenarios?  Yeah, that.   
   >   
   > And do keep in mind that the whole time they're trying to   
   > survive their industrial period WITHOUT killing themselves,   
   > there's still all the natural threats they had to dea with in   
   > their primitive stage. None of them went away. So, their odds   
   > of becoming extinct have actually GROWN, not retracted...   
   >   
   > *We* here on earth are not yet at the point where we set up   
   > a self sustaining, self progressing breeding population on   
   > another world, so preserve our species in the event of a   
   > catastrophe -- natural or man made. WE, right now, are still   
   > in the "More likely to go extinct" stage than the primitives...   
   >   
   > AND THEN there's the fact that species die. The vast majority   
   > of species to ever exist on this planet are gone. They're   
   > extinct.   
   >   
   > What if an intelligent species evolved pretty close to another   
   > world with an intelligent species?  Real life isn't Star Trek.   
   > Such a scenario would present a major threat to one or both!   
   >   
   > The point is that there's LOTS of ways a species may go   
   > extinct, and the older they get THE MORE LIKELY they will fall   
   > to one. Not the less likely, the more likely they won't   
   > survive.   
   >   
   > Their odds may improve over time but there would always be a   
   > non-zero chance of them getting snuffed out ever century...   
   > decade... year...   
   >   
   > Thus:  The rarest species would be the oldest, the most   
   > technologically advances, while the most numerous species   
   > would be the most primitive -- the more primitive the more   
   > numerous. Yet...   
   >   
   > Yet everyone insists that if we find aliens they're going to   
   > be hyper advanced. No, they're likely smashing rocks   
   > together & wishing they could stop freezing their buns off   
   > whenever it gets cold.   
   >   
      
   i dont believe anything special happens in the universe. if a   
   species reaches star traveling capacity, power laws take over   
   determining their distribution.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)