XPost: alt.politics.republicans, or.politics, sac.politics   
   XPost: talk.politics.guns   
   From: nutsrus@portland.com   
      
   Angelita Morillo, Portland nutjob.   
      
   County economist Jeff Renfro said Multnomah County will start fiscal 2027   
   with a $10.5 million hole.   
      
   Back in the day, Portland was the economic growth engine of the greater   
   metro area. Now, it lags compared with its suburbs, especially Clark   
   County, Wash.   
      
   That’s the latest word from Multnomah County economist Jeff Renfro, who   
   briefed the County Board of Commissioners on budget matters today. That   
   doughnut shape, with slumping Multnomah County as the hole in the middle,   
   is strange, Renfro said.   
      
   “Metro areas tend to go up and down together,” Renfro said. “To have one   
   county in a metro area that’s performing pretty well and then one that’s   
   really lagging is unusual.”   
      
   Federal figures show that the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro metropolitan   
   area suffered the biggest employment losses of any large metro in August.   
   Unemployment rose to 5.3% from 4.3%, according to the U.S. Department of   
   Labor. Clark County, meantime, added 2,200 nonfarm jobs in August compared   
   with the same month in 2024.   
      
   Asked by Commissioner Julia Brim-Edwards about Portland’s slump, Renfro   
   cited a lack of confidence among investors as one factor. For a second   
   year, Portland placed 80th out of 81 cities among investors and developers   
   considering real estate investments, according to an annual study by the   
   Urban Land Institute, as reported by The Oregonian this week. Only   
   Hartford, Conn., placed lower in overall real estate prospects.   
      
   “At some point, you just get below a level on that list and it’s just that   
   institutional investors aren’t interested,” Renfro said. “I’m not sure   
   there’s a substantive difference between 80 and 70 in some cases, but it   
   just means we’re below the level where institutional investors are really   
   interested.”   
      
   Because of Portland’s slump, Multnomah County will likely start the 2027   
   fiscal year, which begins July 1, 2026, with a $10.5 million deficit in   
   its general fund, Renfro said. Revenue is projected to be $789.1 million,   
   while expenses will total $799.6 million.   
      
   The general fund is the pot of money that isn’t earmarked by law for   
   specific uses, like Preschool for All, so commissioners have discretion   
   over how to spend it.   
      
   Renfro had expected the county to start 2027 without a deficit or surplus,   
   but three factors conspired to whittle revenue: lower assessed property   
   values; tax compression caused by Measures 5 and 50; and slower growth in   
   the county’s business income tax.   
      
   Inflation will drive up expenses, meantime. Renfro had expected cost of   
   living adjustments of 2.75% for county employees. Now, COLA is likely to   
   be 3.3%, in large part because President Donald Trump’s tariffs have   
   driven up prices for goods.   
      
   “The impact of tariffs is starting to show up in the data,” Renfro said.   
      
   Property taxes provide about $64% of general fund revenue in Multhomah   
   County. The business income tax provides about 26%, and car rental taxes   
   bring in 6%.   
      
   The real market value for the 20 most valuable office buildings in   
   Portland have all fallen since 2019, the year before COVID-19 struck   
   Oregon and protests over the murder of George Floyd turned into riots that   
   prompted downtown landlords to board up windows. The declines are leading   
   to lower tax collections on commercial real estate.   
      
   https://www.wweek.com/resizer/v2/FTMWX6H6FNDS7O5JY4QL557Z4E.png?auth=b083b   
   108462f6cca63675c9ec10908915a81204af50637066a14bd28949c74f0&width=1440&hei   
   ght=743   
      
   Business income tax collections are running ahead of estimates in the   
   current fiscal year “almost exclusively due to extremely large payment by   
   one company,” Renfro said.   
      
   The tax is levied on all businesses that operate in Multnomah County, not   
   just the ones based here. In a typical year, about 45,000 businesses pay   
   it, Renfro said. Usually, about half of all BIT revenue comes from just   
   300 companies.   
      
   https://www.wweek.com/news/2025/11/13/multnomah-lags-surrounding-counties-   
   in-economic-growth-causing-deficit-for-next-fiscal-year/   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)