[continued from previous message]   
      
   > campaign. In practice, the Trump tariffs have been more extreme and, well,   
   > crazier than anything he suggested back then.   
   >   
   > I do mean extreme. America had fairly free trade, with an average rate of   
   > 2.4 percent, when Trump took office. Trump, however, imposed huge tariffs.   
   > Imports from China temporarily faced a tariff of 145 percent! That rate has   
   > been provisionally reduced to 30 percent, but even after that climbdown,   
   > the average tariff rate was 17.4 percent  the highest level of tariffs   
   > since 1934, not much lower than the rate after the infamous Smoot-Hawley   
   > tariff of 1930.   
   >   
   > All indications are that these tariffs will do large economic damage, much   
   > larger than pre-inauguration analyses predicted. Why will the damage be so   
   > severe?   
   >   
   > For one thing, theres a big difference between imposing 10 or 25 percent   
   > tariffs on a few imports and imposing 10 percent on everything and 30   
   > percent on everything one of our major suppliers of both consumer goods and   
   > industrial imports produces. As I write this, West Coast ports are   
   > reporting a sharp drop in ships arriving from Asia; in fact, the latest   
   > report says that no container ships are departing China for America right   
   > now.   
   >   
   > The results of this collapse in trade could probably show up in a few   
   > weeks, as inventories are exhausted. Well soon see soaring prices, quite   
   > possibly empty shelves, and widespread layoffs  even bankruptcies  among   
   > businesses that depended on the flow of goods from abroad, including   
   > trucking companies, retailers, and quite a few manufacturers.   
   > US President Donald Trump delivers remarks on reciprocal tariffs as US   
   > Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick holds a chart during an event in the   
   > Rose Garden entitled "Make America Wealthy Again" at the White House in   
   > Washington, DC, on April 2, 2025. Trump geared up to unveil sweeping new   
   > "Liberation Day" tariffs in a move that threatens to ignite a devastating   
   > global trade war. Key US trading partners including the European Union and   
   > Britain said they were preparing their responses to Trump's escalation, as   
   > nervous markets fell in Europe and America. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI /   
   > AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)   
   > Liberation Day, when Trump declared worldwide tariffs, including islands   
   > inhabited only by penguins.   
   >   
   > BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/getty images   
   >   
   > Adding to this direct impact of tariffs is the huge uncertainty Trumps   
   > tariff policy has created. If youve been following the story so far, you   
   > know that on April 2  insanely dubbed Liberation Day by the president   
   > Trump imposed huge tariffs on countries and territories around the world,   
   > including islands inhabited only by penguins. Then a week later, he put   
   > those tariffs on a 90-day pause, replacing them with a new set of tariffs   
   > that were equally extreme on average but quite different in detail.   
   > According to press reports, the big change came when two Trump Cabinet   
   > members managed to corner him in his office while his trade czar was in   
   > another meeting.   
   >   
   > So who knows what tariff rates will be, say, six months or a year from now?   
   > And how are businesses supposed to plan in the face of such instability? If   
   > youre a company deciding whether to invest in, say, a factory in Mexico or   
   > a factory in the United States, you know that either investment could   
   > easily turn out to be a waste of money. A Mexican factory will be worthless   
   > if Trump keeps 25 percent tariffs in place; a higher-cost U. S. facility   
   > will be worthless if he decides to take the tariffs off.   
   >   
   > Its worth noting that Trumps tariffs violate all of our existing   
   > international trade agreements and have run into opposition in the courts.   
   > One of the main purposes of such agreements is precisely to help make   
   > future policy predictable. Now, we have a U. S. government that treats   
   > solemn compacts with other countries as worthless pieces of paper.   
   >   
   > In this environment, the rational thing for many businesses  and many   
   > consumers, too  is to sit on their hands, accumulating cash rather than   
   > making investments.   
   >   
   > The result is that were facing a substantial risk of stagflation  rising   
   > prices and shortages because tariffs have cut off imports, and rising   
   > unemployment because erratic policy is deterring spending. And all of this   
   > chaos is on Trumps head: The economy would be doing fine if he had left it   
   > alone.   
   > Demolishing Government, Waging War on the Poor   
   >   
   > Although the news media keep calling Trump a populist, it was clear before   
   > he regained power that his administration would follow a right-wing fiscal   
   > agenda: big tax cuts for the rich, savage benefit cuts for the poor and   
   > working class.   
   >   
   > Even so, the budget bill that passed the House in May has been incredibly   
   > extreme. According to the Congressional Budget Office, it cuts almost $700   
   > billion from Medicaid, which will deny health care to millions  we may be   
   > talking about 15 million or more people losing insurance by the time this   
   > budget and other Trump policies go into effect. The budget also cuts close   
   > to $300 billion from SNAP, a. k. a. food stamps, which means that many   
   > Americans will go hungry.   
   >   
   > These cuts to social programs will, the CBO estimates, reduce the   
   > purchasing power of lower-income U. S. households by around four percent;   
   > some independent estimates are even bigger. And Trumps tariffs will also   
   > weigh heavily on working families, which will be hit hard by higher prices   
   > for clothing, food, and other essentials. Its a good guess that Americans   
   > in the bottom 10 or 20 percent of income distribution, who are already   
   > struggling, could find themselves on average seven percent or more worse   
   > off, with many suffering even more than that.   
   > The dollars value has plunged, suggesting that investors are losing faith   
   > in U. S. credibility.   
   >   
   > Yet despite these savage cuts at the bottom, taxes at the top are cut so   
   > much that the CBO estimates the budget will add $3.8 trillion to the   
   > deficit.   
   >   
   > If you dont believe the CBOs dismal deficit forecast, look at the bond   
   > market: Long-term interest rates on U. S. debt have soared to levels not   
   > seen in many years, while the dollars value against foreign currencies has   
   > plunged, suggesting that investors are losing faith in U. S. credibility,   
   > maybe even solvency.   
   >   
   > Beyond the viciousness and irresponsibility of its budget, the Trump   
   > administration has been destroying the ability of the government to carry   
   > out its most basic functions.   
   >   
   > When Trump created Elon Musks so-called Department of Government   
   > Efficiency, it was obvious that DOGE couldnt possibly deliver the huge cost   
   > savings Musk was promising. Of course theres waste, fraud, and abuse in the   
   > federal government, as there is in any large organization, but the great   
   > bulk of federal spending goes either to the social safety net or the   
   > military, and there was no reason to believe the Muskenjugend  the young   
   > tech bros Musk was parachuting into agencies they didnt understand  could   
   > save significant sums without creating chaos.   
   >   
   > The skeptics were right. DOGEs receipts, listing purported savings, have   
   > itemized only a tiny fraction of the sums Musk claimed he would deliver   
   > and theyre riddled with accounting errors. If DOGE has managed to cut   
   > overall spending at all, the amount has been too small to show up in budget   
      
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