XPost: sac.politics, alt.politics, alt.fun   
   From: soetoro@excite.com   
      
   COVID-19 is crushing red states.   
      
   Trump and many of his Republican colleagues have allowed a virulent anti-   
   vaccine/anti-masking/anti-social distancing campaign to spread among their   
   voters, reinforced by Fox News. The campaign gained strength just in time   
   for the emergence of a new and more contagious COVID variant: the Delta   
   variant. Polling has shown that the anti-vaccine message is especially   
   popular among Republicans. Kaiser Family Foundation data indicate that   
   Republicans are the group most likely to say they will “definitely not” get   
   a vaccine:   
      
   Graph showing 23% of Republicans are "definitely not" planning to get a   
   COVID-19 vaccine   
      
   A total of 17 of the 18 states that voted for Trump in the 2020 election   
   have the lowest vaccination rates. Georgia also has very low vaccination   
   rates (as of this writing), but it went for Biden by a very small margin.   
      
   But in recent weeks some Republican leaders have been changing their tune.   
   Right-wing stalwarts like Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA), the House Republican   
   whip, just got vaccinated publicly. This move is in contrast to former   
   President Trump and First Lady Melania who got vaccinated before leaving   
   the White House without making a public appearance out of it and without   
   urging their supporters to do the same. The very conservative governor of   
   Alabama held a press conference to admonish her constituents to get   
   vaccinated. Appearing every bit the irritated grandmother talking to   
   teenagers she said:   
      
       “It’s the unvaccinated folks that are letting us down. I’ve done all I   
   know how to do. I can encourage you to do something but I can’t make you   
   take care of yourself.”   
      
   And Fox News has taken some small steps towards sanity with several high-   
   profile anchors disputing disinformation from the web and urging viewers to   
   get vaccines.   
      
   Slowly but surely, in recent weeks, the number of vaccinations has been   
   increasing. So why the change of heart among conservative leaders? Reality   
   is probably the biggest reason. Grandmothers dying, hospitals overrun, and   
   young people getting sick have a way of combatting the nonsense on the web.   
   Eventually conservative leaders will not want to bear responsibility for   
   the pain of so many. Now that the COVID casualties are piling up in deep   
   red states rather than liberal cities on the coasts they are finding their   
   pandemic humanity. And so politics may well be driving the Republican   
   about-face as elected officials recognize that people are dying and many of   
   those are potential Republican voters in 2022 and beyond.   
      
   Health statisticians use a metric called “excess deaths.” According to the   
   CDC, “Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the   
   observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of   
   deaths in the same time periods.” In other words, people die every day but   
   during the pandemic many more people died than would ordinarily during the   
   same period.   
      
   Below is a table using CDC data showing the estimated excess deaths that   
   have occurred since February 2020 by state, as a percentage of the   
   population. So, for instance, Mississippi has lost approximately 0.35% of   
   its population in excess of what was expected. The table is arranged in   
   order of the magnitude of the loss. Of the top fifteen states that have   
   suffered excess deaths, New York, Washington, D.C., New Jersey and New   
   Mexico are Democratic strongholds. Three states, Arizona, Michigan and   
   Pennsylvania are swing states that went for Biden in 2020 and the remaining   
   eight states are Republican strongholds.   
   State 	Deaths over expected as percent of population   
   Mississippi 	0.35%   
   District of Columbia 	0.35%   
   Arizona 	0.31%   
   Alabama 	0.31%   
   New York 	0.30%   
   Louisiana 	0.30%   
   New Jersey 	0.29%   
   Arkansas 	0.28%   
   South Carolina 	0.28%   
   South Dakota 	0.27%   
   Tennessee 	0.26%   
   New Mexico 	0.26%   
   Michigan 	0.25%   
   Pennsylvania 	0.25%   
   Texas 	0.24%   
   Sources: CDC, Census   
      
   Note: New York numbers combine New York City with the rest of New York   
   State.   
      
   It’s not too far out to assume that in some places the Republican   
   quiescence in the face of anti-vax nonsense may be killing their own   
   voters. As we know from this long pandemic, it hits the elderly the   
   hardest. People 65 and older are most likely to die. And as we know from   
   many surveys, Trump’s support is highest in the oldest age cohort, those   
   over 65 years old. In Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania there will be   
   tough contests at the statewide and congressional levels and 2024 is likely   
   to be as close as was 2020. Given these numbers, killing off your most   
   reliable voters is perhaps not the best strategy.   
      
   These data do not, in themselves, show that COVID is killing Republican   
   voters or disproportionately affect Republican families. For example, we   
   know that because of healthcare disparities, Black Americans are more   
   likely to die from COVID than white Americans. In Republican states,   
   increases in COVID infections, hospitalizations, and deaths could be   
   affecting Black residents, who overwhelmingly vote Democratic, even in   
   Republican stronghold states. However, the sudden change in rhetoric from   
   conservative, Republican politicians, and even among Republican leaders who   
   were previously vaccine-skeptical or vaccine-silent, suggests that   
   something else is happening. It suggests that Republican politicians are   
   recognizing where the current COVID wave is hitting hardest, and they   
   aren’t Democratic cities and counties.   
      
   Trump himself has often been immune to rational political calculations—just   
   look at his insistence on endorsing the weaker candidate, Susan Wright, who   
   recently lost the Republican special election in Texas’ 6th congressional   
   district. The winner dubbed himself a “Reagan Republican,” not a Trump   
   Republican. And in a final irony, Congressman-elect Jake Ellzey will   
   replace Rep. Ron Wright who died of COVID.   
      
   Historically, rational political calculus has been a bipartisan quality,   
   but not in the Trumpified GOP. If Trump wants to preserve the lives of his   
   best voters, he would turn his rallies into mass vaccination sites. There   
   is still time, but it is running out for thousands of Americans.   
      
   --- SoupGate-DOS v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)