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   alt.ufo.reports      The latest from planet crackpot      8,965 messages   

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   Message 8,187 of 8,965   
   MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com to All   
   ufos and tornadoes -- tracking flight ro   
   16 Mar 21 23:39:09   
   
   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:   
   - Similar to a prev post we chop the US48 up into latitude bands and   
     see whether storm activity seems to "interrupt" the travel of UFO's   
     from E to E or vv.   
   - We find relevant patterns. We also find windstorms don't seem to be   
     as important as hailstorms when looking for an effect on UFO   
     activity. Tornadoes also have an almost negligible impact on   
     E-W/W-E UFO travel.   
   - A possible "flight corridor" is revealed around long 85W.  To the   
     west of that UFO's seem to "mostly" travel west. To the east of the   
     corridor they seem to mostly travel east.   
   - Combined with prev data posted is seems UFO's oftentimes come from   
     the N, get into the 85W corridor -- around the Ohio Valley and   
     Mississippi -- then split up east and west to do (whatever).   
      
      
   In a previous post we saw data on tornadoes used as a kind of "passive   
   radar" to track possible flight routes of UFO's.   
      
   The idea was to locate a pattern where tornadoes in a band of latitude   
   across the US seemed to have a positive corr with UFO sightings in a   
   band on one side of the tornado band, and a negative corr in a band on   
   the other side.   
      
   We could interpret this as evidence that more tornadoes in the central   
   band seemed to cause UFO's to "pile up" on one side of the band   
   because they were inhibited from travelling through the storms, and   
   (consistently) "starved" on the other side.   
      
   In this way we could pinpoint in which direction UFO's might be flying   
   at various latitudes across the US.   
      
   It seemed from the data we looked at most UFO's seemed to be flying   
   from N to S because more tornadoes in various lat bands caused   
   sightings to increase to the N and decrease to the S of the tornado band.   
      
   We will now look at locating similar patterns using bands of   
   longitude.  And we will also check the other types of storms the NOAA   
   has been keeping track of since 1950 -- i.e. hailstorms and   
   windstorms.   
      
   As before we chop up the US48 into 5-deg wide bands (~550 km), this   
   time running N/S. For each month since 1950 we compute the number of   
   tornadoes recorded in each band as well as the number of UFO sightings   
   recorded in the same longitude bands over the same period.   
      
   Then it's a matter of running a little program that will compute   
   time-series regressions using bands A, B, C where B is a band of storm   
   data and A and C are bands of UFO data -- B against A and B against C.   
   We look for the situation where both these TS regr are stat   
   significant and the signs of the betas are opposite.   
      
   The following table represents the summary results. The fine detail is   
   far too voluminous for mortals:   
      
                longitude band   
   stormtype    A     B     C     beta_ab   beta_bc   r2_ab        r2_bc   
   hail         -100  -95   -70   -5.65239  1.1156    0.58657744   0.30086143   
   hail         -100  -95   -70   -5.65239  1.1156    0.58657744   0.30086143   
   hail         -100  -95   -70   -5.65239  1.1156    0.58657744   0.30086143   
   hail         -100  -95   -80   -5.65239  9.48006   0.58657744   0.28009550   
   hail         -100  -95   -80   -5.65239  9.48006   0.58657744   0.28009550   
   hail         -100  -95   -90   -5.65239  5.45152   0.58657744   0.24554827   
   hail         -100  -95   -90   -5.65239  5.45152   0.58657744   0.24554827   
   hail         -100  -85   -70   -4.11688  1.06516   0.48077574   0.33030840   
   hail         -100  -85   -70   -4.11688  1.06516   0.48077574   0.33030840   
   hail         -95   -80   -75   1.45559   -3.17667  0.47485289   0.44661260   
   hail         -95   -80   -75   1.45559   -3.17667  0.47485289   0.44661260   
   hail         -100  -90   -70   -5.72678  0.565266  0.46880559   0.06452935   
   hail         -100  -90   -80   -5.72678  8.13944   0.46880559   0.22691812   
   hail         -120  -80   -75   12.0204   -3.17667  0.32644105   0.44661260   
   torn         -120  -80   -70   5.83422   -0.392899 0.26302291   0.12484681   
   torn         -110  -80   -70   2.14279   -0.392899 0.25515163   0.12484681   
      
   As before, the "B" band is the band of storm data being used.  In this   
   case with multiple types of storms in play all the storm data has been   
   normalised (Z scores) so we can compare the effects of UFO activity on   
   each. The A band is the UFO activity (NUFORC sightings) to the west of   
   band B and the C band is the UFO activity to the east.  The beta's   
   show the effect of B on A and C and the r2's show the "explanation   
   power" of the relevant TS regr.   
      
   I've sorted the lines by the first R2 field so we can see the "most   
   likely" relationships at the top and the "less likely" at the   
   bottom. But, remember, all these regression passed a test that said it   
   could occur by chance alone only 10% of the time.   
      
   So the first thing to note is the B longitude bands.  They show storms   
   down the bands 95W-90W, 85W-80W, 80W-75W, and 90W-85W seem to show the   
   pattern we're looking for. When storms increase in that band UFO   
   sightings increase on one side of the band and decrease on the other.   
      
   For the lines that show a -ve beta_ab we have some evidence that UFO's   
   may be normally travelling east to west at that longitude and storms   
   curtail some of that travel -- causing sightings to pile up to the   
   east and drop off to the west.   
      
   Lines of the table that show a +ve beta_ab are the opposite.  Normal   
   UFO travel seems to be from west to east and storms in the B band cut   
   that travel down.   
      
   Another thing to note -- even tho we calculated these statistics for 3   
   types of storm only hail and tornado turned up. It seems UFO's are not   
   particularly fussed by windstorms. At least compared with the other types.   
      
   It seems hailstorms affect UFO travel patterns the most. Only 2 of   
   the lines in the table show tornadoes at some longitude affect UFO   
   sightings more than hail.   
      
   And, finally, we see there seems to be a "corridor" around longitude   
   85W.  The evidence seems to point at UFO's "mostly" travelling west to   
   the west of that corridor, and mostly travelling to the east to the   
   east of that longitude.   
      
   Combined with other evidence it seems UFO's are oftentimes coming down   
   from the N, moving over to long 85W, and then dividing up east and   
   west to do whatever it is they are up to over the US48.   
      
   Of course I didn't check any of this with a Youtube psychic so take it   
   all with a grain of salt and do your own study.   
      
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