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|    Message 8,203 of 8,965    |
|    MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com to All    |
|    jellyfish ufos (2/2) (1/2)    |
|    17 Apr 21 14:44:00    |
      There are various way to deal with data series that are "sparse". The       s/w has run through most of them and the results are broadly       consistent.              But I'll present here a typical transformation of the data. We convert       from events that happen every few days -- e.g. a list of months with a       low count of events in that month -- to a month by month estimate of       the "return time". I.e. the number of months between 1 event and the       next at this point in time.              With a month-by-month estimate of return times we can use all the       machinery of handling real numbers instead of small integers --       e.g. interpolating to get estimates of missing months.              Running these against the now 28k time series in the database gives us       a list with the top 20 items as follows:              Suspect variable Trans R2       cosmic-ERVN 0o1 0.87358840       cosmic-MCMD 1o1-y 0.85402629       gavcosmic-ERVN 0o2 0.84920654       cosmic-FSMT 3o1-y 0.84565447       cosmic-FSMT 0o1-y 0.84231633       gavcosmic-MWSN 0o1 0.83703157       cosmic-THUL 3o1 0.82952817       gavcosmic-SNTG 3o1-y 0.82803157       cosmic-INVK 3o1 0.82683286       cosmic-INVK 3o1-y 0.82575344       cosmic-NAIN 0o1-y 0.82079697       cosmic-ERVN 0o2 0.81983241       gavcosmic-ERVN 0o1 0.80868246       gavcosmic-THUL 0o1-y 0.80534677       gavcosmic-NAIN 1o1-y 0.78479206       gavcosmic-NAIN 0o1-y 0.78267140       cosmic-THUL 12o1-y 0.77392370       gav5904179 1o1 0.76797919       gavcosmic-MWSN 0o2 0.76743680       gav5904179 1o1-y 0.76681924              The first column gives the code name of the data series being       correlated against the return times for monthly jelly UFO sightings.       The 2nd column is a code for what transformations the AI found best       tuned the match to the best possible it could find. And the 3rd       column gives the "explanation power" of the series named in col 1.              "Cosmic-ERVN" is the monthly output from a cosmic ray telescope in the       mountains of Armenia. It has shown up in quite a few UFO-related       studies I've posted in the past few months. If we look in detail at       the actual model, it shows more cosmic rays are associated with a       larger return time -- i.e. greater time between sightings. It seems       the "sky jellyfish" don't like flying around when lots of cosmic       radiation is coming down from the sky.              We note from table almost all the top 20 are related to cosmic rays.       Jellyfish *really* don't like radiation. The major difference is which       station in the cosmic telescope community did the measurements. While       stations are scattered all around the world it seems the majority of       the ones in the list, above, are around the poles.              The only other items mentioned in the table is the mystery number       5904179. And that is a robot in the southern ocean that moves around,       up and down, to measure ocean water temperature, salinity and       chlorophyll content. Somehow the water temps down there in the       Southern Ocean explain about 76% of the month-to-month variation in       estimated return times for jellyfish sightings.              Given there are 10s of 1000s of data series and the above list is       only 20 of them, we have to look further to see more interesting       patterns. E.g. we can ask "are any planets implicated"?              And we get a list like this:              Planet Variable Trans R2       gavjupiter RA 3o1-y 0.41710465       gavmars rg 12o1-y 0.20605815       gavmercury RA 0o1 0.08690225       gavpluto elong 1o1 0.06147527       gavsaturn v 12o1-y 0.17084634       gavsol r 1o1 0.03720755       gavuranus r 3o1-y 0.13934915       gavvenus RA 0o1 0.05865361       gavvenus RA 0o1 0.05865361              I.e. the Right Ascension of Jupiter (with the appropriate       transformation listed -- related to removing very distant outliers,       lagging the series by 3 months, and using a log transform on the       return times) explains around 42% of the month-to-month variation in       return times. I.e. when Jupiter moves to a "good" celestial longitude       about 3 months later jelly sightings seem to react.              And we can also ask what things other than cosmic rays and planetary       positions related to jellyfish sightings:              Suspect Trans R2       gavocean-70dep1 0o1 0.74777184       gavocean-60dep10 3o1 0.67552692       gavocean50dep500 1o1 0.66729375       gavocean-60dep500 3o1 0.66368744       gavocean-60dep1000 3o1 0.65024259       ocean-60dep100 3o1 0.63115045       gavocean-70dep10 3o1 0.51762137       gavocean50dep100 3o1 0.49251600       gavocean-10dep0 0o1-y 0.47532055       gavocean-60dep1 0o1-y 0.42208783       ocean50dep1000 1o2 0.38352995       ocean-20dep500 12o1-y 0.37085697       gavn2o_mhd 0o1-y 0.34706927       gavqjapan 12o1 0.32914547       gavwindband-60 12o1-y 0.32569189       gavocean0dep10 3o1-y 0.32521161       gavocean-40dep1000 12o1-y 0.32134049       gavpresseg-10 12o1-y 0.30766505       gavpresband-60 12o1-y 0.29243382       gavqbrazil 1o1-y 0.28586552       gavqseg-50 1o1-y 0.28586552       ocean-10dep1 1o1-y 0.27751417       qseg30 3o1 0.27439373       ocean-30dep500 12o1 0.25191674       gavn2o_thd 3o1-y 0.24386299       gavn2o_kum 0o1-y 0.22749707       gavocean-10dep500 12o1 0.21927441       gavarc-70 1o1-y 0.21506766       gavn2o_cgo 0o1-y 0.21465639       gavcemband-6 12o1 0.21056614       gavphytoindexS 12o1-y 0.21054219       gavocean30dep1000 3o1-y 0.20943744       gavcemband-5 12o1 0.20939120       gavocean0dep500 12o1 0.20926377       gavocean-40dep500 12o1 0.20216449       gavworld60 0o1-y 0.19634182       gavarc-60 1o1-y 0.19407190       gavocean-20dep100 12o1-y 0.19379212       gavn2o_sum 0o1-y 0.19163500       gavn2o_psa 3o1-y 0.18781128       gavocean-70dep100 12o1-y 0.18395385       gavmars-FV 12o1-y 0.18313543       gavqaustralia 12o1 0.18152462       gavworld50 1o1-y 0.17998850       ocean-70dep500 0o1 0.17120217       qbandmag-30 1o1-y 0.16182924       gavant20 0o1-y 0.15758243       gavant30 0o1-y 0.15697096       gavn2o_nwr 1o1-y 0.15605519       gavwindseg-90 12o1-y 0.15486991       gavarc20 12o1-y 0.15388346       nh 0o1-y 0.15324586       gavaravgEquat 3o1-y 0.15039821       gavn2o_NH 1o1-y 0.14930516       gavarc50 12o1-y 0.14845662       gavwindseg-30 0o1 0.14679843       gavocean50dep10 0o2 0.14678671       gavaravgSHocean 0o1 0.14183093       lat-10 0o1-y 0.14130550       gavocean-40dep1 12o1-y 0.14032628       gavcemband-7 12o1-y 0.13092820       gavocean30dep500 3o1-y 0.13091940       ocean-70dep1000 0o1 0.13078407       gavaravgSH 0o1 0.12878416       gavworld70 12o1-y 0.12790891       gavqrussia 3o1 0.12789781       gavocean0dep100 3o2 0.12673678       mars-elong 0o1 0.12550588       gavqband30 12o1 0.12423087       gavant40 0o1-y 0.12329068       gavqindonesia 3o1 0.12170414       gavlat-60 12o1 0.12128601       gavqnatlridge 0o1-y 0.12012003       windseg-20 1o1-y 0.11982142       gavocean40dep1000 3o1-y 0.11978953       gavocean-30dep10 3o1-y 0.11845415       gavpresband10 3o1-y 0.11745526       gavindia 3o1-y 0.11694643       gavqwindantridge 12o1-y 0.11647169       gavqvenezuela 12o1-y 0.11343549       uah_globe6NH 0o1-y 0.11275515       gavpresband20 3o1-y 0.11172239       gavocean0dep1 0o1 0.11136655       gavuah_mtNHOcean 1o1-y 0.11039428       ocean0dep0 12o1-y 0.10977220       gavwindseg-130 1o1-y 0.10846157       gavqoman 1o1 0.10813321       gavsunspots 12o1 0.10807520       gavworld80 0o1-y 0.10688617       lat-20 1o1 0.10613056       gavvolcano_dates 12o2-y 0.10532982       gavant-30 12o1 0.10511143       gavarc130 12o1-y 0.10446238       gavocean10dep1 12o1-y 0.10365002       qbandmag40 12o1-y 0.10312364       gavpresseg-30 0o1 0.10241679       gavwindseg30 12o1-y 0.10233889              [continued in next message]              --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05        * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)    |
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