From: kymhorsell@gmail.com
Overnight came news of shootdown number 3 (that we know of). Another grey
cylinder over Canda, not said to be a balloon, with few details given by
military officials.
Shooting down is now apparently the policy.
Just as a reminder, the distribution of UFO sightings across the US
has historically shown a pattern that shows some fraction of the
objects are aware of US Air Force bases (in particular).
If you ask the question -- is there a simple formula that could be
interpreted as a "threat function" based on the number of AFB's around
a given point weighted by distance to the AFB's -- you get the answer "yes".
It looks like
threat_i = a*AFBs_i + b*sum_j AFBs_j/dist_i_j^r
where threat_i means a numerical value of the threat as seen by
(whatever) UFO's in state "i", AFBs_i are the number of Air Force
bases in state "i", dist_i_j is the distance (I calculate it in simple
degrees of lat, lon between the centres of each state) and sum_j means
"sum over the other states".
Some reasoning lets you assign a=0 and b=1.
The only problem is -- what is the value of "r". You can search for
"r" by looking at the predicted UFO distribution assuming higher
threat means lower UFO numbers.
And as the value of r is twiddled between 0 and 3 (say) the fit is
best (and statistically significant as well ;) around r = 1.5.
The relevant curve shows it starts to improve around 1 and fades down to
near 0 around r=2. There is also a big up/down spike around r = 0.5.
SIDEBAR: =============================
Here's what the data looks like for r ~= 1.45.
We take each state as "state i" and calculate the threat
using the forula from all other states' AFB's and distances.
Then we average the 50 lines down to around 10 lines, grouping
similar lines together and averaging, to make the results smoother
(and more compact so I can list them here).
avg threat Av #UFOs Model
0.405221 2296.5 1625.58*
1.29005 1694.18 1545.17
2.10944 1735.86 1470.7
2.78896 1522.76 1408.94
3.66271 1384.86 1329.54
5.92696 427 1123.76*
5.92696 427 1123.76*
8.74956 81 867.244*
14.689 1253 327.467*
MODEL:
y = -90.8801*x + 1662.4
beta in -90.8801 +- 98.2706
T-test: P(beta<0.000000) = 0.938392
r2 = 0.30485485
calculated Spearman corr = -0.866667
critical value = 0.783 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
As the threat increases the #UFO's seen in the relevant state
decreases. The "threat" is the avg of the threat value from
the above formula for a number of different states.
The simple linear model seems to predict expected number of UFO's seen
in the state (these are totals from the NUFORC data) fairly well.
The R2 shows about 30% of UFO sightings seem to be following a pattern
of "cognizant of threats posted by US military bases". I guess the other
70% are Chinese weather balloons. :)
=====END SIDEBAR=========================
The significance of r=1 is -- that is the kind of threat function a
UFO might perceive from a scrambled intercepting fighter jet. The time
to travel between remote state j and here is about proportional to
time, and the greater the time you would assume the less the threat.
The value r=2 is another kind of threat -- running into an area
patrol. A distance r away from the base of operations for an air
patrol (e.g. some AFB in remote state j) the time you have to wait to
see a patrol jet is inv proportional to the area between you and state j --
i.e. an inverse square. The r=0.5 spike corresponds to something
that might be able to travel between state j and here in time
proportional to sqrt(distance). School maths suggests something that
is continuously accelerating (s=1/2 at^2 -> t=sqrt(2s/a)). AKA
air to ground missile.
But the the "peak value" around 1.5 indicates UFO sightings overall are
distributed in a way that suggests "many" are worried about being intercepted
by a scrambled fighter and the many others are worried about running into a
regular air patrol. And some are worried about missiles.
The archives suggest there has "always" been a policy of UFO
harassment. It's just been quiet until now. Witnesses have reported 100s of
cases where "jets on full afterburners" chase after little lights in the sky.
Various vids seem to suggest jets sometimes "escort" grey disks and whatnot
out of an area where they presumably might bump into things.
Here is AUS the police action have been all very low key with light
aircraft called into service to patrol regions at least (AFAIK) near airports.
Sometimes you might even see a military chopper at night (sometimes with all
nav lights turned off) shaking a cloud and a few little lights fly out of it.
But even going back to the 1960s witnesses here tend to report one or more
light aircraft chase after the odd disk or egg. As I've said -- not needing
to draw attention to what authorities are doing, not to say a great deal
cheaper than maintaining a bunch of fighter jets on standby.
And, finally, "military interaction" might explain the day-of-week anomaly
seen in UFO reports. You tend to notice Mondays show the lowest number
of UFO reports with each successive day more and more with peaks on
Fri and Sat.
Why is this? Is it because people only look at the sky on weekends and
are too hung over driving to work on Monday to bother?
But it may be that AF jets don't work as much on Sundays and the UFO's
know the chance of running into a patrol on certain days of the week
is lower. And that idea is backed up by the bump in the UFO reports graph
on certain holidays when some fighter pilots might also have the day off.
I've noticed even Mohammed's birthday has the bump as other (e.g. US)
national holidays.
Anyway. Now it seems the policy is clear. Anything some countries don't
like the look of that might pose a threat to aircraft or national
security is gunna gits blasted.
U.S. shoots down unidentified cylindrical object over Canada
Phil Stewart, Idrees Ali, and Steve Scherer
WASHINGTON/OTTAWA, Feb 11 (Reuters) - A U.S. F-22 fighter jet shot
down an unidentified cylindrical object over Canada on Saturday, the
second such instance in as many days, as North America appeared on
[continued in next message]
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)
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