From: kymhorsell@gmail.com   
      
   I've (finally!) finished uploading the correlation heat maps to my web pages.     
      
   I noticed a few people (or maybe robots) tried to get in early and maybe   
   missed out getting anything. Bad luck. :)   
      
   But as an illustration of what they might be used for, sit back and   
   listen to a little tale not in any of today's headlines.   
      
   I went out early for my skywatch today. Maybe 7pm. Turned out to be an   
   "active" day. No doubt the AUS govt will say what I saw was a load of   
   Chinese satellites. They like to characterise unknown things in the   
   sky as being of Chinese origin. Apparently.   
      
   Anyway proceedings kicked off pretty quick. The sun was barely down   
   over the next-door flats (recent development) when a light high in   
   west appeared and disappeared a few times over a min. Not an airplane   
   nav light.  Something else. At least one of the flashes was pretty   
   darn bright and seemed to have a (teeny) donut shape. I.e. a bright   
   circle -- maybe 1/3 or 1/4 the size of the full moon (down low in the   
   NW for me; Jupiter just above it) -- but with a black center. Hard to   
   imaging a satellite's solar panels make that kind of reflection. But   
   {shrug} maybe. ;)   
      
   Then a couple moving lights appeared. At least one in the W moving   
   toward the SE, and at least one in the E moving N (i.e. if it was a   
   sat then it's orbiting in the wrong direction).   
      
   Over the next min there were several other lights in different parts   
   of the sky.  At least one seemed to hover overhead before heading off   
   N. More seen to the E or NE going in the wrong direction. Then a   
   bright on high in the NE going to the N.   
      
   About this point a heard the rumbling of a familiar aircraft in the   
   distance.  The local (I assume) military maintains a bunch of light   
   aircraft and a couple jets to got out to shoo off "Chinese satellites"   
   and "drones".  It had the familiar dulcet tones of one of those I've   
   heard before.  I told the lights to watch out because the cops were   
   coming.  The one or 2 in the sky at the time didn't seem fussed. They   
   just kept right on doing what they were doing.   
      
   Sure enough, within 10-20 sec Big Flashy appeared with an array of   
   lights flashing -- not many of them seemingly for nav purposes.  A   
   big red light seemed to be flashing on the top. Some other white   
   ones. It seemed to head toward one of the lights now going N in the N   
   sky.  But like most times I've seen this (numbering now in the dozens   
   of times over the past couple years) the plane doesn't normally head   
   directly for its target. It kinds sidles up to one side of it -- if it   
   can.   
      
   Big Flashy hauled ass and managed to get fairly close to one of the   
   lights in the sky, off of the N. Then it turned off left to end up   
   going over to the West.   
      
   But it seems "no-one" was impressed by this performance. As Flashy went   
   off maybe half a dozen other lights appeared in different parts of the   
   sky, moving in different directions. There was also a "pulsar" over in   
   the NE that flashed bright yellow and dimmed and flashed and dimmed   
   over several cycles before disappearing. Apparently not moving. Other   
   dim lights were going off in various directions. One or 2 seemed to be   
   close to Big Flashy. None got in front of it, but some appeared over   
   or under it within a few degrees.   
      
   Flashy went off to the west. The activity seemed to die down.  Then I   
   noticed another flashy very small and very slow off to the NE.  After   
   a min or so I noticed a luminous contrail. It seemed to be another of   
   the aircraft we've just started to see here. Some kind of high-alt jet   
   with curved swept-back wings. You generally seem to see this before   
   sunset going E to W mostly to the N of where I am but also a couple   
   times to the S.  Sometimes they curve off to the NW but generally they   
   go W.   
      
   This guy just tooled along right to left maybe 30 deg above the N   
   horiz, leaving its contrail behind. And disappeared off to the W   
   somewhere.   
      
   I was thinking -- if that thing turned up just after a bunch of little   
   lights then you have to assume it had to be pre-planned. Even though   
   these big jets go over every now and then, to have one turn up within   
   1 min of some "event" means they knew it was gunna happen, where and   
   when. Interesting.   
      
   I rounded out the rest of the hr watching. A few more dim slow-moving   
   lights -- too slow to likely be sats if they are moving toward the   
   N. Polar sats cant be "geostationary" or anything like that. You   
   notice that some "Chinese satellites" are way too fast (their angular   
   speed would have them circle the whole earth in 30 min -- 3x too fast   
   for even the lowest LEO sat) while some are way too slow or the hover   
   before moving off.   
      
   So it was all very interesting.   
      
   But now the analysis part. We can use the maps the programs spat out   
   to get some kind of picture of what is going on. This started at (I   
   figured) about 7 gmt. So we can look at an appropriate map and figure   
   out where they heck they might have flown in from.   
      
   The maps the AI's produced in the past couple of days link different   
   parts of the ocean with UFO activity as observed in the US. Using   
   day-by-day data for ocean surface temperatures (actually, the IR   
   radiation coming up from each part of the ocean during nighttime on   
   some day) and day by day sighting data from NUFORC we can see how well   
   the SST predict UFO sightings day-by-day for the ~10 y the 2 data-sets   
   overlap. If that section of the ocean does not predict UFO sightings   
   at all we ignore it.  If there is a significant predictive power then   
   the s/w messes around to maximize the R2 statistic (the so-called   
   "explanation power" of a regression model). It then finds the maximum   
   R2 for all models that apply to each 1x1 deg part of the ocean, then   
   plots that on a density plot where colors represents the R2 vales at   
   each point.   
      
   We can see a typical one here:   
   .   
      
   This shows the R2 map for those UFO's reported to the NUFORC that were   
   seen at 0700 gmt. Hence why we're looking at it now. :) This might   
   represent the way UFO's are flying around the world at 7 gmt on the   
   average day of the week.   
      
   So a 7gmt, when the activity I'm talking about, above, started up the   
   "sunrise line" was moving past the UK, and the "sunset line" was   
   coming into the E coast of AUS.   
      
   The avg UFO sighting in the NUFORC database around this time of day   
   seems to highly correlate with the ocean surface somewhere off Java. We   
   can see the red blob on the map at lon ~100E, lat 10S.   
      
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)