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|    Message 8,535 of 8,965    |
|    Kym Horsell to All    |
|    watching the watchers watch the watchers    |
|    05 Aug 23 23:52:57    |
      From: kymhorsell@gmail.com              We've prev looked at my dairy entries for mostly 2022 correlated against       weather data for each 10x10 deg region across the earth. The data       series used were all month-based. Many science organisations release       monthly gridded data for land/air/ocean temperatures, earthquakes,       cosmic rates, etc.              When correlating the sightings from the diary month-by-month against       the 1000s of available published datasets we found the "usual suspect"       areas of the world lit up like xmas -- key parts of Antarctica,       Africa, S America, and the Atlantic had weather data that showed       non-chance resemblances to the ups and downs in the sightings dataset.       We have to assume those regions, for whatever reason, somehow       "predict" the appearance of unusual objects I see over my property       from time to time.              And now we'll push a bit harder and use another dataset I gather and       process for various purposes -- daily sea surface temperatures. This       time the gridding is fine on both the time and spatial dimensions. It       comes from various organisations that process satellite data where the       sats in question have IR cameras pointed down at the earth. Some       groups use the IR info to measure the temperature of the ocean surface       or near-surface at local nighttime, when clouds and the reflection of       the sun don't interfere or blind the camera, respectively. You can       generally get a daily read on ocean temp for each 1x1 deg area of the       earth between (say) 70S and 70N.              Just for fun I made the problem a bit harder than usual for the AI       programs. Instead of giving them the data for each 1x1 deg area of       the oceans I used a dataset I created some years back to predict ocean       storms and US tornadoes. It's region-based. The model I developed back       then was intended to predict the development of e.g. hurricanes and       typhoons based on changes in SST in key regions. The idea of that       exercise was to find out which regions were the best predictors and       exactly how to process the IR data to get the best predictions into       the future.              So taking data for the 58 regions the programs discovered back then       and feeding it to new programs now, I want them to create a density       plot showing which areas of sea surface seem to warm and cool in exact       sync with the way the number of objects I've seen cross over the sky       or dance around with small aircraft -- as the case may be -- over the       past few years. And does that look like the density map we already       created with the monthly datasets I gave it before?              The programs this time had some small problems trying to translate the       name of a region to specific parts of the ocean and then plotting the       relevant correlation coefficient (I normally use the so-called       "explanation power" of time-series regressions as an indication of how       well the weather data at some location matches up against UFO data       from somewhere else; as usual the TS regr must pass 2 stat tests before       it is accepted; of those stat tests that pass for each region of the       map the best one -- the largest R2 -- is selected as the correlation       value to plot). But it managed a fairly good answer even tho it does       have an interesting couple of errors.              The plot is available here: |
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