From: kymhorsell@gmail.com   
      
   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:   
   - We recall that UFO sightings have a strong stat pattern linking them to   
     day of the week. The pattern is also seen in MADAR sightings so is   
     not simply an effect of observer behaviour. We have prev noted that   
     UFO spatial distributions suggest some obj avoid AFB and area patrols.   
     Light aircraft seem to do the patrols and "escorting"/"harassing" in   
     Australia rather than military craft as in some other countries.   
     Whether noisy civil aircraft trying to chase off LITS is more or   
     less obvious than a couple of fighter jets is arguable.   
   - In my local region clouds over the past several months have changed   
     their daily pattern to seemingly mimic UFO sightings.  Max clouds   
     seem to now roll in at times of expected highest UFO activity.   The   
   behaviour of local "patrol aircraft" has changed   
     as well. In the past patrols seemed to peak when the maximum   
     number of unusual objects in the night sky were visible. Over the   
     past few months patrols have relaxed and the clouds have taken over   
     the "move along; nothing to see here" function.   
   - Various stat tests show these relationships are significant   
     according to 2 indep stats tests.   
   - Using these factoids a movie has been made showing recent regional   
     cloud activity and the expected UFO activity vs historical activity   
     from similar days in the past 10 years according to NUFORC data.   
      
      
   As I've been promising people visiting my BB for several years now --   
   I have some preliminary computer models that predict UFO activity   
   days, weeks or months in the future based on this and that.  And one   
   of the thats is clouds.   
      
   And as mentioned in posts to these groups I've started to suspect that   
   "someone" may be manipulating at least some aspects of weather in my part of   
   the world to "modulate" the ability of either   
   ground observers to see objects in the sky at night and/or vice versa.   
      
   The work presented here is based on another piece of evidence for the   
   above in the form of IR images from weather satellites.  By cutting out   
   part of the relevant images that has to do with just weather within a   
   couple 100s km from my location it turns out observed cloud activity   
   has a stat sig weekly timetable.  It may be "normal" in some parts of   
   the world of  industry/ag to see clouds come and go based on   
   human activity. Maybe even come and go based on the work week. Mental   
   model: smoke stacks might operate on a weekly cycle and smoke and haze   
   can change local weather conditions. But in my region clouds come in   
   off the Southern Ocean mostly direct from Antarctica.  It's hard to   
   fathom how cloud parameters can vary because of human activity in the   
   Antarctic or Southern Ocean. There is no industry out there to do the   
   modifying.   
      
   But nevertheless it is happening. If you boil the relevant sequence of   
   weather sat images down to a number based on cloud temperature seen in   
   the image, we find those numbers are strongly related to the day of   
   the week. And  also showing a stat sig similarity with   
   the weekly cycle of UFO sightings. But the more interesting thing   
   seems to be -- this relationship has only started up in my region   
   AFAIK recently. By recently I mean the past few months.   
      
   The output from the relevant time-series regression using dow to   
   predict cloud temperatures seen in my region hr by hr since the start   
   of Oct (just a conveniently small dataset to present here) looks like:   
      
   Sampled`dataset:   
   Date``````````````````````````DOW````CloudTemp`````predictedCloudTemp   
   ```20231001`````````````````````1``````190.248``````183.344   
   ```20231002`````````````````````2``````147.959``````187.167**(2sd`diff)   
   ```20231002`````````````````````2``````172.738``````187.167   
   ```20231003`````````````````````3``````186.973```````190.99   
   ```20231003`````````````````````3``````195.163```````190.99   
   ```20231004`````````````````````4``````188.339``````194.813   
   ```20231008`````````````````````1``````209.815``````183.344*(1sd`diff)   
   ```20231009`````````````````````2``````218.096``````187.167*   
   ```20231012`````````````````````5``````210.565``````198.637   
   ```20231013`````````````````````6``````196.944```````202.46   
   ```20231013`````````````````````6``````211.069```````202.46   
   ```20231017`````````````````````3``````215.535```````190.99*   
   ```20231019`````````````````````5``````203.472``````198.637   
   ```20231020`````````````````````6``````187.603```````202.46   
   ```20231021`````````````````````7``````184.094``````206.283*   
      
   MODEL:   
   y = 3.82318*x + 179.521   
   beta in 3.82318 +- 0.805445  (90% CI)   
   alpha in 179.521 +- 3.80707    
   T-test: P(beta>0) = 1.000000   
   Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.349989   
   	critical value = 0.306 2-sided at 5%; reject H0:not_connected   
   r2 = 0.14205733   
      
      
   The dataset shows that for hourly images from the weather sats that we   
   extract a "CloudTemp" for the local region we can use the day-of-week   
   (Sun==1) to predict the CloudTemp code.  The model formula is only a   
   rough estimate but the 2 stats tests show it is strongly linked with   
   the actual extracted cloud temp.  We can covert the CloudTemp to an   
   actual temperature in deg C but that's not terribly relevant here. All   
   we need to note is that for some reason the temp of clouds rolling in   
   off the Southern Ocean seem to be influenced by the day of the week   
   somehow.   
      
   We have seen previously that UFO sightings seem to have a strong   
   statistical pattern linked to day of week. It is certainly true that   
   UFO observers may be influenced by the day of the work week.  But we   
   have also seen previously there is a "real" pattern in there because   
   the UFO activity observed by robot stations (MADAR) has exactly the   
   same pattern.   
      
   From the NUFORC summary data we can extract a count by day of week for   
   just Octobers between 2010-2022 as:   
      
   2       782   
   3       898   
   4       936   
   5       1004   
   6       1062   
   7       1377   
   1       968   
      
   As we've seen before a couple times sightings seem to increase from   
   Monday making Sat the busiest day of LITS and metallic spheres   
   and whatever, then sharply declining for Sun and back to Monday at   
   minimum again.   
      
   If we do the same thing for the CloudTemp numbers seen hourly for Oct   
   2023 so far we get:   
      
   DOW`````av`CloudTemp````sd`CloudTemp   
   2```````179.567`````````41.6782   
   3```````177.489`````````40.2682   
   4```````169.576`````````49.7941   
   5```````186.492`````````38.7821   
   6```````194.404`````````32.554   
   7```````200.963`````````23.5072   
   1```````186.212`````````35.1885   
      
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
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