For a couple years I've been intrigued by the number of unusual   
   aircraft we see flying over my part of rural AUS in the evening.   
   Tonight was no exception. When I went out for my usual 1hr skywatch 4   
   light aircraft buzzed around for the duration. They came from various   
   "well known" directions and headed off to ditto.  Most of them carried   
   unusual arrays of lights. The average array seems to be hung off the   
   bottom of the plane from a framework that covers and area maybe up to   
   1/2 the size of the aircraft.  It typically has a few yuge lights,   
   typically yellow, that flash every few seconds.   
      
   Why any aircraft is flying around 6pm-9pm flashing big lights at the   
   ground we can only guess at.  And my guess -- maybe informed by a few   
   interactions between said light aircraft and other, non-conventional   
   aircraft, witnessed over the past few years -- they are trying to   
   scare someone off.   
      
   And now the evidence is starting to pile up that this kind of activity   
   seems to be paying dividends. While COVID here is still a thing, the   
   death rate has plummeted to 0. Hospitalizations are low and steady.   
      
   And it seems the numbers indicating that flying around at night   
   flashing yellow lights is a part of what has brought that about.   
      
   Stuck up a pole in my yard is a radio mike. It listens out for things   
   around the neighbourhood. Forget CCTV. The sound-scape tells you a lot   
   about what's going on. Back at the office the radio from the mike   
   comes in and gets analyzed, looking for simple patterns and adding   
   counts to a database when things are heard, esp if they are heard at   
   times the programs have determined are very significant.  There's been   
   a lot of data to learn from, so their models are now looking pretty   
   solid in a data sciency way.   
      
   One of the things we listen out for are the planes. You can pretty   
   much recognise each one by its engine. Apparently in an effort to be   
   low key as well as save some money -- the AUS govt is presently trying   
   to save up its nickels to buy some nuclear submarines along with all   
   the gear and personnel you need to keep them going when you're   
   starting out from nothing but 1 50yo experimental reactor in the   
   Sydney suburbs -- the planes are propeller jobs, mostly vintage prop   
   planes.  Some are single and some twin props. And you can hear them   
   easily even when they are just a dot in the sky.   
      
   In the past years this is the kind of data we're gathering about noisy   
   planes flying around at night:   
      
   2024.000 2 2024.003 1 2024.005 4 2024.008 2 2024.011 2 2024.014 3   
   2024.016 2 2024.025 3 2024.027 1 2024.033 1 2024.036 2 2024.038 3   
   2024.041 5 2024.044 2 2024.046 2 2024.049 2 2024.052 4 2024.055 2   
   2024.057 1 2024.060 3 2024.066 1 2024.068 3 2024.071 5 2024.074 2   
   2024.077 3 2024.079 1 2024.082 1 2024.085 2 2024.087 4 2024.090 2   
   2024.093 2 2024.096 2 2024.098 2 2024.101 3 2024.104 1 2024.107 4   
   2024.112 5 2024.115 1 2024.120 2 2024.123 2 2024.126 5 2024.131 1   
   2024.137 1 2024.139 3 2024.142 4 2024.148 2 2024.150 2 2024.153 3   
   2024.156 2 2024.158 1 2024.161 2 2024.164 1 2024.167 2 2024.169 3   
   2024.175 1 2024.178 1 2024.180 1 2024.183 2 2024.186 3 2024.191 2   
   2024.197 3 2024.199 1 2024.202 2 2024.208 3 2024.210 3 2024.213 2   
   2024.216 3 2024.219 3 2024.221 2 2024.224 2 2024.230 3 2024.235 3   
   2024.240 4 2024.243 1 2024.246 1 2024.251 1 2024.254 4 2024.257 2   
   2024.260 1 2024.265 3 2024.270 1 2024.276 1 2024.284 1 2024.292 2   
   2024.295 5 2024.301 4 2024.303 2 2024.306 3 2024.309 2 2024.314 2   
   2024.317 3 2024.320 2 2024.322 1 2024.328 1 2024.331 2 2024.336 2   
   2024.339 2 2024.342 3 2024.344 1 2024.347 4 2024.350 1 2024.352 2   
   2024.355 3 2024.358 2 2024.361 2 2024.363 2 2024.366 2 2024.369 2   
   2024.372 2 2024.374 3 2024.377 3 2024.380 1 2024.383 2 2024.385 1   
   2024.388 1 2024.391 2 2024.393 3 2024.396 2 2024.399 2 2024.402 1   
   2024.404 3 2024.407 2 2024.410 4 2024.413 1 2024.415 3 2024.418 1   
   2024.421 3 2024.423 1 2024.426 3 2024.429 3 2024.432 1 2024.437 3   
   2024.443 2 2024.445 3 2024.454 1 2024.456 1 2024.459 1 2024.462 1   
   2024.464 2 2024.470 1 2024.473 3 2024.475 2 2024.478 1 2024.481 3   
   2024.484 1 2024.486 2 2024.492 1 2024.495 1 2024.500 1 2024.511 1   
   2024.514 2 2024.516 1 2024.522 3 2024.530 2 2024.538 1 2024.541 1   
   2024.544 3 2024.549 1 2024.552 1 2024.555 1 2024.557 4 2024.560 4   
   2024.563 4 2024.566 4 2024.568 1 2024.571 2 2024.577 3 2024.579 1   
   2024.582 2 2024.585 1 2024.590 2 2024.593 1 2024.596 4 2024.598 1   
   2024.601 2 2024.609 1 2024.612 3 2024.615 2 2024.617 2 2024.620 5   
   2024.623 2 2024.628 1 2024.631 2 2024.634 1 2024.637 1 2024.639 1   
   2024.642 4 2024.645 1 2024.648 1 2024.653 1 2024.656 1 2024.658 1   
   2024.661 1 2024.664 3 2024.667 4 2024.669 2 2024.672 1 2024.675 4   
   2024.678 2 2024.680 5 2024.683 2 2024.686 3 2024.689 2 2024.691 3   
   2024.694 4 2024.697 4 2024.699 3 2024.702 2 2024.705 2 2024.708 2   
   2024.710 2 2024.713 4 2024.716 1 2024.719 1 2024.721 1 2024.724 2   
   2024.727 1 2024.730 1 2024.735 1 2024.738 2 2024.740 3   
      
   The data are the dates and number of noisy aircraft passing nearby at   
   night within 5m of the hr and 1/2-hr. I think they do that so you   
   don't confuse them with commercial traffic that might be in the   
   control area of an international AP. Thanks guys. ;)   
      
   And what the AI programs have been doing is lining such data up   
   against hospitalizations and deaths from COVID, these days released by   
   state and federal govts sometime Fri, Sat, Sun most weeks.   
      
   And it seems the MORE of these flights that we see, the lower the   
   hospitalization and death rates from COVID a couple weeks later.  The   
   lag is what tells you the flights are affecting the development of new   
   cases. (Added complications include the weekly data announcements that   
   cover the wk prior and sometimes quite old data that was "just   
   discovered"). If there was no lag you might just think something like   
   "as COVID declines, more people take nightly joy flights".  (Of course   
   you then have to explain why they are flashing these big arrays of   
   lights; sometimes just randomly and sometimes while they are flying   
   inside cloud).   
      
   Here is the last cab off the rank. The AI programs searched for a   
   validated model that best explains published COVID deaths over the   
   past 9m.   
      
   (10% random sample of output to save space).   
   Date               rate of flights  rate of deaths   model   
   2024.290            134.686000       2221.5      1929.56   
   2024.295            146.399000       2482.2      1903.29*   
   2024.284            262.617000      2299.43       1719.2*   
   2024.481            364.351000       2120.9      1616.05*   
   2024.601            398.700000      484.216      1587.67**   
   2024.604            407.250000      507.333      1580.99**   
   2024.205            433.485000      3748.26      1561.32**   
   2024.344            437.500000      1148.68      1558.41*   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)