[continued from previous message]   
      
   So the best-predicted model using the delta of 2017 U1 turned out to   
   be "military chases". The distance between U1 and Earth as it varied   
   according to U1's approach to the sun as well as the Earth's orbit   
   around the sun at the same time robustly predicted around 1/3 of the   
   times military aircraft appeared to interact with UFOs, mostly over N   
   Am, during the period of the dataset.   
      
   Other objects were characterised as "bright (lights)", "flashes in the   
   sky", "red" lights, "green" lights, "white" lights.  While all these   
   "lights" might simply indicate 2017 U1 was carrying a halo of rocks   
   that began to interact with the Earth's atmosphere the closer it got to   
   the sun and/or Earth, that explanation can not easily apply to objects   
   described as "football-sized disks" and other "giant" objects seen   
   during the period.   
      
   So it seems there is some suggestion if not just some of those LITS   
   were associated with U1 in some way, but some "interesting" UFO types   
   like "attractors for military intervention" and "hovering overhead" as   
   well as things "as big as a football field".   
      
   We can look at the validated regression model for the "military" case.   
      
   Year/Month           dist from Earth  % ufo sightings   
   			(AU)         involving "military"   
                                                    Model prediction from dist   
   2015.12                17.8417       5.5455       5.0839   
   2015.21                17.1985       5.0984      5.14491   
   2015.29                16.4109       5.3619      5.21964   
   2015.38                15.6451       4.3195      5.29229*(model 1sd above obs)   
   2015.46                14.9275       5.5455      5.36037   
   2015.54                14.3596       5.4318      5.41424   
   2015.62                13.9255       4.7037      5.45542   
   2015.71                13.6251       6.3659      5.48391   
   2015.79                13.4055       6.8824      5.50475*(1sd below obs)   
   2015.88                13.1732       6.6373      5.52679*   
   2015.96                12.8694       6.7143      5.55561*   
   2016.04                12.4189       5.9608      5.59835   
   2016.12                11.8113        7.682      5.65598**(2sd below)   
   2016.21                11.1215       5.2522      5.72143   
   2016.29                10.3099       5.0073      5.79842   
   2016.38                9.52548       6.9727      5.87284*   
   2016.46                8.79542       5.5082       5.9421   
   2016.54                8.22403        7.544       5.9963*   
   2016.62                7.79301       7.3037      6.03719*   
   2016.71                7.49354       5.1916       6.0656   
   2016.79                7.26089       4.6232      6.08767*   
   2016.88                6.99257       7.3953      6.11313*   
   2016.96                6.63207       7.3882      6.14733*   
   2017.04                6.10715       5.7091      6.19712   
   2017.12                 5.4171       6.0239      6.26259   
   2017.21                4.67501       6.8939      6.33299   
   2017.29                3.77688       6.4054      6.41819   
   2017.38                2.90808       6.7778      6.50061   
   2017.46                2.11553       6.7971       6.5758   
   2017.54                1.57409       5.5584      6.62716*   
   2017.62                1.34085        5.008      6.64929*   
   2017.71                1.29842       8.4194      6.65332*   
   2017.79               0.499429       4.9823      6.72911*	<-- ~perihelion   
   2017.88               0.635156       7.0086      6.71624   
   2017.96                1.74073       5.1475      6.61136*   
   2018.12                4.41646       6.2402      6.35752   
   2018.21                5.21612       6.8824      6.28165   
   2018.29                 5.8236       6.2174      6.22402   
   2018.38                6.19857       4.8194      6.18845*   
   2018.46                6.37937       8.1146       6.1713**(2sd below)   
   2018.62                6.52701       4.8961      6.15729*   
   2018.71                6.76189       5.7022      6.13501   
   2018.88                8.02787       5.3333      6.01491   
   2018.96                8.98684        6.698      5.92394   
   2019.04                 10.015       5.5545       5.8264   
   2019.12                10.9171       6.0378      5.74082   
   2019.21                11.6481       5.3243      5.67147   
   2019.29                12.1796       6.5814      5.62105*   
   2019.38                12.4808       6.5846      5.59247*   
   2019.46                12.6038       5.8558       5.5808   
   2019.54                12.6403        5.894      5.57734   
   2019.62                12.7148       4.9695      5.57027   
   2019.71                12.9493        5.419      5.54803   
   2019.79                13.4321       5.2834      5.50223   
   2019.88                14.1715       4.4314      5.43208*   
   2019.96                15.0985       3.9808      5.34414*   
   2020.04                16.1012         4.73      5.24902   
   2020.12                16.9981       4.2698      5.16393   
   2020.21                17.7185       4.7559      5.09559   
   2020.29                18.2211       4.8571      5.04791   
   2020.38                18.4933       3.9545      5.02208*   
   2020.46                18.5937       6.5227      5.01256*   
   2020.54                 18.619       4.6325      5.01016   
   2020.62                18.6934       5.2146       5.0031   
   2020.71                18.9322       4.8462      4.98045   
   2020.79                19.4159       6.1064      4.93456*   
   2020.88                20.1495       4.3755      4.86496   
   2020.96                21.0663       3.7559      4.77799*   
   2021.04                 22.057       4.5165        4.684   
   2021.12                22.9281       5.4554      4.60137   
   2021.21                23.6265       4.0488      4.53511   
   2021.29                24.1198         2.31      4.48831**(2sd above)   
   2021.38                24.3818       5.0359      4.46346   
   2021.46                24.4735       4.6765      4.45476   
   2021.54                24.4933       4.5503      4.45288   
   2021.62                 24.565          4.5      4.44608   
      
   Lagging x 4 months   
   Training rmse 1.15617.   
   Validating rmse 1.35596   
   Within tolerance: model VALIDATES   
   y = -9.486735e-02*x + 6.776494e+00   
   beta in -0.0948674 +- 0.027014  (90% CI)   
   alpha in 6.77649 +- 0.374738   
   T-test: P(beta<0) = 1.000000   
   limits for alpha at 90.0% CI   
   Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = -0.574026   
   	Crit value = 0.432 2-sided at 1%; reject H0: not_connected   
   r2 = 0.31619540   
      
   So the procedure predicts the background rate of observed military   
   interactions with UFOs is around 5% of all sightings. As 2017 U1   
   approached the sun, and as it grew closer to Earth as the Earth   
   orbited the sun, the% of military interactions went up to   
   almost 7%.   
      
   The full range of results and various plots are at the URL.   
   (Backup pages at kym.sdf-eu.org and others if kym.massbus.org is down again).   
      
   --   
   There is something there -- measurable light, multiple instruments -- and   
   yet it seems to move in directions inconsistent with what we know of physics   
   or science more broadly. And that, to me, poses questions of tremendous   
   interest, as well as potential national security significance.   
   -- Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., 2022 House Intelligence Committee hearing   
      on UAPs.   
      
   [No Good Deed Goes Unpunished:]   
   Whether you work in the UFO warehouse at Area 52, are the surgeon who   
   handles the alien autopsies, or are the designer of the amazing   
   climate cleaning machine, if your work is classified, you can't blow   
   the whistle on it for the public good and expect the law to work in   
   your favor.   
   -- David W Brown, "How to Blow the Whistle if You Work With Flying   
      Saucers and Their Alien Pilots". A letter from Clearance Jobs, an   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)