XPost: sci.skeptic, alt.paranormal, alt.atheism
XPost: alt.conspiracy, alt.alien.research
From: f00@0f0.00f
Mitchell Holman wrote:
> jojo wrote in news:69d37242-e5dd-35dd-a285-a624d61a0af3
> @shinku.aoyagi.konjou:
>
>> JTEM wrote:
>>>
>>> If we find an inhabited world, an intelligent species then
>>> chances are they're a ignorant, primitive society.
>>>
>>> Every so called "Intelligent" species would have to experience
>>> a primitive stage.
>>>
>>> This is inescapable.
>>>
>>> No planet is going to spontaneously spawn life only for it to
>>> immediately climb out of the primordial ooze & build super
>>> computers.
>>>
>>> No. Not going to happen...
>>>
>>> Humans existed for MILLION OF YEARS before any of us left
>>> evidence for the controlled use of fire, let alone metallurgy.
>>>
>>> The genus Homo -- "Humans" -- officially begins with Homo habilis,
>>> conventionally dated back about 3 million years... though the
>>> oldest fossil of which is considerably younger.
>>>
>>> If you Google it, the usual suspects (Wikie, Google A.I.) are
>>> going to give you ridiculously old dates but the truth is that
>>> we find evidence for the spread of fire back hundreds of
>>> thousands of years, not millions...
>>>
>>> The oldest throwing spear is around 400k years old, btw. But
>>> after 300K years or so they disappear from the archaeological
>>> record... don't show up again for quite a while...
>>>
>>> The point is, if you didn't know, humans went through a lengthy
>>> primitive stage before ever achieving industrialization, and
>>> even then it took centuries to go from the Industrial Revolution
>>> to space.
>>>
>>> So a primitive stage is necessary, all "Intelligent" species
>>> must pass through a primitive stage, but nobody is required to
>>> graduate to an advanced stage.
>>>
>>> Nope.
>>>
>>> If you graphed all the so called "Intelligent" species in the
>>> universe it would look something like a pyramid -- the greatest
>>> number at the bottom, the most primitive species, tapering off
>>> to the smallest number of highly advanced species, so rare they
>>> actually form the point!
>>>
>>> Why?
>>>
>>> Because all so called "Intelligent" species would enter a
>>> primitive stage, but not all would leave it.
>>>
>>> Humanity was nearly wiped out entirely, rendered extinct, by
>>> a "Super Volcanic Eruption," less than 80k years ago. And as
>>> bad as it was, there were worse. There were bigger, more
>>> catastrophic eruptions in the earth's past.
>>>
>>> Asteroids? Like the one that ended the dinosaurs?
>>>
>>> Disease.
>>>
>>> An unfortunate Gamma Ray Burst could be a planet killer...
>>>
>>> Ever hear of "Snowball Earth?" The odds of an intelligent
>>> species surviving one of those lie somewhere between ZERO
>>> and NIL...
>>>
>>> And then out of the "Intelligent" species that made it though
>>> a primitive stage without some natural catastrophe wiping them
>>> out, there's always self destruction.
>>>
>>> Nuclear war. Biological warfare. Chemical warfare.
>>>
>>> Read any of the A.I. doomsday scenarios? Yeah, that.
>>>
>>> And do keep in mind that the whole time they're trying to
>>> survive their industrial period WITHOUT killing themselves,
>>> there's still all the natural threats they had to dea with in
>>> their primitive stage. None of them went away. So, their odds
>>> of becoming extinct have actually GROWN, not retracted...
>>>
>>> *We* here on earth are not yet at the point where we set up
>>> a self sustaining, self progressing breeding population on
>>> another world, so preserve our species in the event of a
>>> catastrophe -- natural or man made. WE, right now, are still
>>> in the "More likely to go extinct" stage than the primitives...
>>>
>>> AND THEN there's the fact that species die. The vast majority
>>> of species to ever exist on this planet are gone. They're
>>> extinct.
>>>
>>> What if an intelligent species evolved pretty close to another
>>> world with an intelligent species? Real life isn't Star Trek.
>>> Such a scenario would present a major threat to one or both!
>>>
>>> The point is that there's LOTS of ways a species may go
>>> extinct, and the older they get THE MORE LIKELY they will fall
>>> to one. Not the less likely, the more likely they won't
>>> survive.
>>>
>>> Their odds may improve over time but there would always be a
>>> non-zero chance of them getting snuffed out ever century...
>>> decade... year...
>>>
>>> Thus: The rarest species would be the oldest, the most
>>> technologically advances, while the most numerous species
>>> would be the most primitive -- the more primitive the more
>>> numerous. Yet...
>>>
>>> Yet everyone insists that if we find aliens they're going to
>>> be hyper advanced. No, they're likely smashing rocks
>>> together & wishing they could stop freezing their buns off
>>> whenever it gets cold.
>>>
>>
>> i dont believe anything special happens in the universe. if a
>> species reaches star traveling capacity, power laws take over
>> determining their distribution.
>>
>
>
> In a universe 14 billion years old
> Earth has only had intelligent life
> for smallest sliver of time, less than
> half a million years. We are latecomers.
> There are smarter species out there, but
> it is proof of our arrogance that we
> think they would bother trying to visit
> or even talk to us.
>
there is another theory that states we are WAAAYYYYYY tooo early.
it says that since majority of the stars are smaller than our
sun, usually red dwarfs, they last hundreds of billions of years.
considering that, we are like a 1-sec baby that does calculus.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)
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