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   Most Americans want fat old feeble Trump sent to the big house for 25   
   years.   Great place to have his death bed.  Prison is no place for   
   feeble weak old men.   
      
    Lock Him Up? A New Poll Has Some Bad News for Trump   
      
   A new POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll punctures some prevailing political   
   narratives about the Trump indictments.   
      
   o hear Donald Trump tell it, the fact that he keeps getting indicted by   
   prosecutors is a boon to his reelection effort. “Any time they file an   
   indictment, we go way up in the polls,” he said at a dinner shortly after   
   he was charged by the Justice Department with attempting to overturn the   
   2020 election.   
      
   This counterintuitive claim is questionable on its face — if not   
   demonstrably false upon close examination — but it is one among many   
   dubious arguments that Trump and his allies have advanced in recent   
   months as he has been confronted with four different prosecutions brought   
   by the Justice Department, the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and,   
   most recently, the Fulton County District Attorney’s Office in Georgia.   
      
   A new POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll provides some bad news for Trump: Even   
   as he remains the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination, the   
   cascading indictments are likely to take a toll on his general election   
   prospects.   
      
   The survey results suggest Americans are taking the cases seriously —   
   particularly the Justice Department’s 2020 election case — and that most   
   people are skeptical of Trump’s claim to be the victim of a legally   
   baseless witch hunt or an elaborate, multi-jurisdictional effort to   
   “weaponize” law enforcement authorities against him.   
      
   Furthermore, public sentiment in certain areas — including how quickly to   
   hold a trial and whether to incarcerate Trump if he’s convicted — is   
   moving against the former president when compared to a previous POLITICO   
   Magazine/Ipsos poll conducted in June. This latest poll was conducted   
   from Aug. 18 to Aug. 21, roughly two-and-a-half weeks after Trump’s   
   second federal indictment and several days after Trump was criminally   
   charged in Fulton County. The poll had a sample of 1,032 adults, age 18   
   or older, who were interviewed online; it has a margin of error of plus   
   or minus 3.2 percentage points for all respondents.   
      
   Here are some of the most notable findings from our latest survey.   
   1. Most Americans believe Trump should stand trial before the 2024   
   election   
      
   On Monday, Trump’s lawyers will face off against federal prosecutors   
   before U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan over when to schedule his trial   
   in the Justice Department’s 2020 election case — a high-stakes dispute   
   that could have dramatic implications for the 2024 election. Federal   
   prosecutors have proposed that the trial begin on Jan. 2, 2024, while   
   Trump’s lawyers have countered that the trial should take place in April   
   2026. If Trump gets his way, that would, perhaps not coincidentally,   
   leave him plenty of time to complete his reelection bid and, if   
   successful, shut the case down after retaking the White House.   
      
   Americans are far closer to the Justice Department’s position than to   
   Trump’s. Fifty-nine percent of respondents in the poll said that the   
   federal trial in Trump’s 2020 election subversion case should take place   
   before the 2024 Republican primaries begin early next year. A slightly   
   higher number — 61 percent of all respondents — said that the trial   
   should take place before the general election next November.   
      
   There was a predictable partisan split among Democrats and Republicans,   
   with nearly 90 percent of Democratic respondents seeking an early trial   
   date and roughly a third of Republican respondents agreeing.   
      
   It was the reaction of independents, however, that may prove most ominous   
   for Trump. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of independents said that Trump   
   should stand trial before next November — a figure that suggests   
   particular interest in and attentiveness to a case that effectively   
   alleges that Trump tried to steal the last election. By way of a rough   
   comparison, when we asked a similar question in June following Trump’s   
   indictment by the Justice Department in Florida concerning his retention   
   of classified documents, fewer than half of independent respondents (48   
   percent) said that the trial in that case should take place before next   
   November.   
   2. About half of the country believes Trump is guilty in the pending   
   prosecutions   
      
   The claims on the part of Trump and his supporters that he is the victim   
   of a “witch hunt” also seem to be having little effect on the views of   
   Americans across the entire population. About half of the country —   
   including overwhelming majorities of Democrats and roughly half of   
   independents — believe that Trump is guilty of the series of charges.   
      
   Among the four pending cases, the Manhattan District Attorney’s   
   prosecution produced slightly less robust figures, with a total of just   
   48 percent of respondents reporting that they believe Trump is guilty in   
   that case, which concerns alleged hush money payments to the adult film   
   star Stormy Daniels.   
      
   Befitting our polarized country, bare majorities said that they believe   
   Trump is guilty in the other cases — 51 percent in the pending Justice   
   Department and Fulton County prosecutions concerning the 2020 election,   
   and 52 percent in the Justice Department’s classified documents case.   
   3. A conviction in DOJ’s 2020 election case would hurt Trump in the   
   general election   
      
   Our latest poll also makes clear that it would be unhelpful for Trump’s   
   presidential bid if he is federally convicted of a criminal scheme to   
   steal the last election at the same time that he is asking the American   
   people to send him back to the White House.   
      
   A plurality of respondents (44 percent) said that a conviction in the   
   case would have no impact on their likelihood of supporting Trump, but   
   the numbers tipped decisively against Trump among those who said that the   
   result would inform their vote. Nearly one-third of respondents (32   
   percent) said that a conviction in the case would make them less likely   
   to support Trump, including about one-third of independents (34 percent).   
      
   Only 13 percent of respondents said that a conviction would make them   
   more likely to support Trump, and that figure was comprised mostly of   
   Republicans.   
   4. There is considerable room for the numbers to get worse for Trump   
      
   Despite the seeming tsunami of news coverage of Trump’s legal issues, a   
   sizable portion of the public is still learning about the alleged crimes   
   of the former president.   
      
   Most respondents said that they understand the charges in the pending   
   cases either very well or somewhat well, with the highest numbers — more   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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