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Russian commercial aviation is expected to suffer from lack of maintenance due
to Western sanctions within months. Within a few years, most commercial
aircraft will be completely grounded as major aircraft manufacturers Boeing
and Airbus stop supplying spare parts to Russia.
 
"They'll be able to fly pretty well for the next six months to a year, but
then parts start to break and you need replacements, and you start to have
safety issues," Jefferies bank analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said at a meeting on
the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
 
Commercial aircraft require heavy maintenance, which is usually done every six
years, and will be affected by the sanctions because the required parts will
not be available, Kahyaoglu said. "People will then no longer be able to fly
in Russia.
 
"Russia has 789 commercial aircraft. They account for about 2.7 percent of the
global fleet. The Russian airline Aeroflot has 187 aircraft with an average
age of 6.3 years, according to its website.
 
Most aircraft operated by Russian airlines are leased from foreign leasing
companies, including AerCap Holdings, the largest aircraft leasing company in
the world. The Russian authorities will keep a number of aircraft themselves.
However, the fate of the rest of the fleet worth about 10 billion dollars is
uncertain.
 
According to Kahyaoglu, there is little hope that foreign owners will be able
to retrieve their planes from Russia. "Those planes will be worthless in six
years because they can't get the parts anymore.
 
"As of March 10, according to consultancy IBA, there were 523 aircraft from
foreign lessors in Russia. Of these, 142 belong to AerCap Holdings, a Dutch
public company headquartered in Dublin, and 35 to SMBC Aviation Capital, which
is also Dublin-based and Japanese-owned. Under the sanctions of the European
Union, the aircraft leasing companies have until March 28 to cancel the
contracts in Russia.

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