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In the long run, aviation companies will be less able to go green as a result
of a shortage of sustainable fuels. According to a study by the Netherlands
Aerospace Center and TU Delft, there is a risk of a shortage of raw materials
from 2035. In concrete terms, this would mean that by 2050 greenhouse gas
emissions will have decreased by only 40 percent compared to the situation
where aircraft continue to use fossil kerosene.
 
According to the researchers, the limited availability of European raw
materials needed for the production of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is an
obstacle to achieving the blending targets proposed by the European
Commission. With sufficient availability of raw materials, emissions will be
two times lower, according to the researchers. "From 2035, we will see a
significant and growing gap between supply and expected demand," said Johan
Kos, project leader and lead author of the study.
 
In the conclusions, the researchers take two situations into account. In one
of them, aircraft powered by green hydrogen will be deployed on short and
medium distances from 2035. In the other case, such aircraft are not deployed,
and instead additional flights are flown with aircraft at SAF.
 
Other climate effects such as the influence of water vapor and soot have not
been studied. According to the researchers, this should also be investigated
in order to make a more complete estimate of the possible contribution of
hydrogen-powered aircraft and SAF to climate neutral aviation.

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