XPost: ba.politics, dc.media, soc.penpals   
   XPost: alt.burningman   
   From: cruikshanke@yahoo.com   
      
   Voters’ unhappiness with President Obama’s response to global   
   threats could drag down state and congressional Democrats this   
   November—and give the GOP some big wins.   
      
   Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that Russian   
   troops could take Kiev in two weeks. The bloodthirsty militants   
   of ISIS have beheaded another American journalist and control   
   territory from Syria to the gates of Baghdad. And although the   
   upcoming midterm elections may appear to be focused on domestic   
   policy concerns like health care and the economy, the growing   
   anxiety over President Obama’s handling of global events seems   
   to be weighing down his job approval rating—and, by extension,   
   Democratic chances in the fall.   
      
   Between the bad optics of ill-timed golf rounds and a too-candid   
   admission that we “don’t have a strategy yet” to deal with ISIS   
   in Syria, Obama’s underwhelming leadership on international   
   affairs has attracted a lot of criticism in recent weeks. And   
   while he says he’ll lay out more details of his plan to deal   
   with global threats on Wednesday, voters are growing less and   
   less convinced that Obama is up to the task of leading us   
   through uncertain times in a dangerous world.   
      
   Obama’s second term has been largely characterized by gridlock   
   and disappointment on the domestic policy front. Still, voters   
   don’t hold him entirely responsible for this fact—Congress   
   averages a job approval rating that’s barely above 10 percent,   
   and Republicans shoulder more blame for last year’s government   
   shutdown than do Obama and the Democrats. And while voters have   
   long been unimpressed with the president’s handling of issues   
   like the economy and health care, they seem no more upset with   
   him over these things than they were in his first term. His   
   health care law is roughly as unpopular today as it was in   
   September 2010, and his 40 percent approval rating on the health   
   care issue is essentially unchanged from where it was four years   
   ago (PDF).   
      
   The key difference between 2010 and today is that, back then,   
   about half of Americans still approved of the job Obama was   
   doing overall (PDF). That’s because, despite whatever qualms   
   they had about Obamacare and a lackluster recovery, four years   
   ago many voters still thought Obama was dealing with the rest of   
   the world in the right way and keeping us safe, and gave him   
   credit for that.   
      
   Now Obama’s overall job approval sags in the low 40s.   
   Disapproval is regularly 10 or more points higher than approval,   
   and a likely reason for this is plunge in popularity among   
   voters is the president’s foreign policy. What was once the   
   bright spot in the president’s otherwise lackluster polling   
   numbers is now the anchor pulling him down. In fact, a recent   
   poll shows only 31 percent of American voters saying they   
   approve of the job the president is doing on foreign policy, a   
   number that lags behind his overall approval rating—and his   
   approval rating on the economy and health care, his two primary   
   weak spots throughout his presidency.   
      
   It would appear foreign policy is not going to be the deciding   
   issue in the 2014 midterms. Fewer than 4 out of 10 voters say   
   that foreign policy is a “very important” issue in determining   
   how they vote this year (PDF). And of course international   
   relations and national security fall much more squarely in the   
   executive branch, making congressional and statewide elections a   
   poor venue for hashing out debates about the right approach to   
   taking on ISIS or Vladimir Putin.   
      
   But if Americans are increasingly upset with how the president   
   is handling foreign policy, and it continues to weigh down his   
   overall job approval, it not only makes him a less effective   
   advocate on the campaign trail—it makes voters less likely to   
   want to vote to give him a friendlier Congress. The argument   
   that voters ought to get rid of the Republicans so that Obama   
   can have his way is a lot more potent when Obama is at 50   
   percent job approval than when he’s below 40. A president with   
   job approval in the low 40s is a much less appealing campaign   
   trail sidekick than one who is in the 50s.   
      
   What Obama’s response ought to be to the likes to Putin or ISIS   
   isn’t something that can be divined from polling, nor should it   
   be. It’s not clear exactly what actions he could take that would   
   improve his foreign policy job approval rating and, in turn, his   
   overall job approval, though fewer rounds of golf might be a   
   start.   
      
   Voters simultaneously express war-weariness and growing concern   
   about the spectre of radical Islam that is haunting the Middle   
   East. They think it’s good that we got out of Iraq, but don’t   
   think we should just keep to ourselves while ISIS expands its   
   reach. Moreover, they aren’t sure how we should deal with a   
   bellicose Russian government that is advancing westward and   
   backs rebel groups that shot down a civilian passenger aircraft,   
   or how to stop a savage group of rapists and murderers that are   
   trying to establish a caliphate, or how to handle a brutal   
   dictator who has used chemical weapons on civilians. But they do   
   know that a president saying “We don’t have a strategy” isn’t   
   comforting, and doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence.   
      
   Despite global unrest, the 2014 election may not be a “foreign   
   policy election” in the strictest sense. But deepening fear   
   about growing bad news abroad is diminishing Americans’ views of   
   the president at home, and that’s bad news for Democrats this   
   November.   
      
   http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/09/will-world-   
   chaos-sink-the-dems.html   
      
       
      
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