From: januarybaybee@gmail.com   
      
   6 questions about Trump’s economy you were too embarrassed to ask   
      
      
   Over the past few months, President Trump has painted a portrait of a   
   resurgence: After tanking under President Barack Obama, the economy 'has   
   finally been Made Great Again.'   
      
   Based on recent polls and my own reader email, much of the public believes   
   this narrative.  The word “boomingâ€� gets thrown around a lot.   
      
   But how has the economy actually performed under Trump?  There is plenty of   
   data to help us answer this question.  So I bring you: Six questions about   
   Trump and the economy you may have been too embarrassed to ask.   
      
      
   1. What’s the big picture? Have we seen a change under Trump?   
      
   Generally speaking, the economy today is virtually indistinguishable from the   
   economy in the several years before Trump took office, as measured by economic   
   growth.   
      
   Gross domestic product continues to increase at a modest but steady rate,   
   according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter of this   
   year, it grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent ; last year it also grew at 2.3   
   percent.  That’s roughly    
   what growth averaged during Obama’s second term.   
      
      
   2. What about hiring? Haven’t we seen a big boom there?   
      
   Nope.  The pace of hiring has been decent, but again, not better than it was   
   under Obama.   
      
   Since Trump took office, non-farm payrolls have expanded by an average of   
   186,000 jobs per month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Over   
   Obama’s second term, it averaged nearly 216,000 per month.  In Obama’s   
   final year, it was 195,000.   
      
   The unemployment rate has been falling, but that decline also began early in   
   Obama’s presidency and has more recently leveled off.  Which makes sense,   
   given that we’re nine years into one of the longest recoveries on record. At   
   some point, there isn†  
   ™t much further it can fall.   
      
      
   3. Wages have been going up though, right?   
      
   Wage growth has disappointed under Trump, as it did under Obama.  Adjusted for   
   inflation, hourly earnings grew little over the past year, up just 0.4 percent   
   in March compared to a year earlier.  Obama oversaw a few stretches of   
   year-over-year real wage    
   growth above 2 percent, but mostly his record was lousy too.   
      
   After the GOP tax cut passed, a bunch of companies announced plans to use some   
   of their windfall to boost worker pay.  So far, we haven’t seen that in the   
   overall data.  Many of these firms were probably planning to raise pay anyway   
   â€” just as they    
   had in years past — and credited Trump’s tax cut to curry favor with the   
   White House.   
      
      
   4. What about federal deficits and debt?  Surely Trump compares favorably to   
   red-ink-guzzling Obama.   
      
   Federal deficits as a share of the economy did grow a lot under Obama, at   
   first. That was largely because we had a major financial crisis.  Tax revenue   
   fell dramatically.  Meanwhile, federal spending rose, thanks both to automatic   
   outlays (e.g., more    
   people became eligible for unemployment benefits) and deliberate stimulus   
   measures.  Additionally, boomers began aging into entitlement eligibility, and   
   Obama extended the Bush tax cuts.   
      
   As the economy improved, those deficits shrank but did not go away.  In fiscal   
   2016 (so still under Obama) they began expanding again, and now under Trump,   
   they have exploded, despite there being neither a recession nor a major war.    
   That is thanks to    
   both tax cuts and spending increases.   
      
   The Congressional Budget Office projects that, in a few years, our debt-to-GDP   
   ratio will be at its highest level since 1946.     <<====   
      
      
   5. Tax cuts just passed. Isn’t it unfair to judge Trump’s economic track   
   record until those have been factored into the economy?   
      
   That’s true: We haven’t seen the impact of the tax cuts yet.  But their   
   salutary effects are likely to be modest and short-lived, for a few reasons.   
      
   So far, consumers mostly haven’t noticed them.  The biggest beneficiaries   
   are also the wealthiest Americans, who are less likely to spend their tax   
   savings.  The best hope for GDP, jobs and wage growth comes from the   
   corporate-side cuts, which could    
   increase investment over time.   
      
   Even so, the effects are expected to be small.  The respected Penn Wharton   
   Budget Model, for instance, projects that the tax cuts will raise annual GDP   
   growth by 0.06 to 0.12 percentage points over the next decade.  Meanwhile, an   
   aging population, rising    
   federal debt and Trump’s threats of a trade war present significant head   
   winds.   
      
   All of which is to say: Don’t hold your breath for that 4 percent to 6   
   percent GDP growth that Trump promised.   
      
      
   6. So, uhh, how much influence do presidents have over the economy, anyway?    
   It sounds like not very much.   
      
   Bingo.  Presidents get too much blame when the economy sours and too much   
   credit when it improves.  Not that you’d know this from Trump’s boasts   
   whenever some good news — even news that’s not actually that good —   
   rolls in.   
      
   https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/6-questions-about-trumps   
   economy-you-were-too-embarrassed-to-ask/2018/04/30/663a3a1a-4cb6   
   11e8-af46-b1d6dc0d9bfe_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f4ce649c692c   
      
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