XPost: alt.politics.elections, alt.politics.usa.republican, alt.politics.trump   
   XPost: talk.politics.guns, sac.politics   
   From: yourdime@outlook.com   
      
   Arizona is a swing state. So why is former President Donald Trump   
   handily beating Vice President Kamala Harris in recent polls of Arizona   
   voters?   
      
   After decades as a perennial red state, consistently voting for   
   Republicans, Arizona turned purple in 2018, electing Kyrsten Sinema as   
   its first Democratic U.S. senator in 30 years. Then in 2020, the state   
   elected Democrat Mark Kelly to the Senate and went for Joe Biden over   
   Trump by just over 10,000 votes — the first time a majority of   
   Arizonans voted for a Democrat for president since Bill Clinton in 1996   
   (Harry Truman was the last Democrat to win Arizona before Clinton, back   
   in 1948). Most recently, in 2022, Democrats took the majority of   
   statewide offices, including governor, secretary of state and attorney   
   general.   
      
   But a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll conducted   
   this month showed the former president up by a full 6 percentage points   
   (with a margin of error of 4 points). Is the state swinging back to   
   deep red? Probably not, but it’s complicated.   
      
   Arizona’s Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters, dropping from 1.38   
   million in 2020 to 1.19 million in 2024. Republicans dropped, too, from   
   1.5 million to 1.45 million in 2024, but the much larger drop in   
   Democratic voters is glaring, especially in a state now led by   
   Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.   
      
   Arizona’s unaffiliated voters have always been a large voting bloc, but   
   that group is growing. In Maricopa County — the most populous county in   
   the state and the fourth-largest in the country — Democrats voters fell   
   from 814,000 to 692,000 in 2024. Biden won Republican-heavy Maricopa   
   County in 2020, but Republicans’ voter advantage is much larger today.   
      
   Arizona is also missing strong statewide leadership despite having a   
   Democratic governor. Hobbs is missing in action when it comes to the   
   presidential and Senate races. She has not publicly appeared with   
   Harris or her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz — despite numerous   
   Arizona visits. Other swing-state governors, like Josh Shapiro in   
   Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Roy Cooper in North   
   Carolina, are pulling out all the stops for the Democratic ticket, but   
   Hobbs and her team are fumbling what should be a tactical advantage for   
   Harris in Arizona.   
      
   Arizona has the fourth-largest Hispanic population in the country,   
   making up one-third of the state’s population. Polls show Harris   
   receiving much less support from this vital voting bloc than Biden did   
   four years ago.   
      
   Border security and illegal immigration are top issues nationwide, but   
   Arizona is the only swing state where they are truly front and center.   
   The recent one-hour Senate debate between Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake   
   included no less than 30 minutes on immigration and border security   
   issues.   
      
   Arizona also has an initiative on the ballot this year that purports to   
   give law enforcement expanded powers to arrest immigrants who entered   
   the country illegally. The latest polls show that ballot initiative   
   favored by about 60% of Arizonans. The Biden/Harris administration is   
   seen by most Arizonans, including Democratic politicians, as failing   
   Arizona border towns and counties that are often overwhelmed with   
   asylum-seekers and those who crossed the border illegally. These issues   
   are personal to many Arizonans.   
      
   Arizona has a strong MAGA contingent, including some of the most   
   extreme members of Congress in Reps. Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and Eli   
   Crane. It is the home of the money-raising MAGA activist group Turning   
   Point USA. And yet, despite this loud minority contingent, every Trump-   
   endorsed Republican candidate for statewide office lost in 2022, while   
   Republicans who did not go all in on Trump won their races for   
   treasurer, superintendent of public instruction and Corporation   
   Commission. Lake lost the governor’s race in 2020 (although she still   
   calls herself Arizona’s rightful governor and has pending election   
   lawsuits to this day) and is greatly underperforming Trump in her   
   Senate race.   
      
   That’s why all hope is not lost for Harris’ winning Arizona in 2024 —   
   the state is truly purple. But she must overcome these significant   
   headwinds if she wants to be only the fourth Democrat to win Arizona’s   
   presidential vote in the last 76 years.   
      
   https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-lead-arizona-polls-   
   harris-purple-state-rcna175465   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)