XPost: bc.politics, van.general, vic.general   
      
   One lie too many, Mr Campbell.  You need to be shown the door - along with your   
   ex-Ministers and ex-aides.   
   ____________________________________   
      
   New poll's findings signal a wipeout of the governing B.C. Liberals   
   Special to the SunMay 31, 2010   
      
   A new Mustel Group poll shows support for the B.C. Liberals has sunk to a new   
   low of 32   
   per cent. The poll indicates the NDP is enjoying a 12-point lead over the   
   governing   
   Liberals -with 44 per cent indicating they would vote for the NDP. With the   
   Green party   
   hovering around 13 per ent support and small parties at three per cent, the   
   biggest   
   surprise in the poll is the rise of the B.C. Conservative party that has   
   support from   
   seven per cent of the B.C. adult population.   
      
   While these support levels give us some sense of who is ahead in the horse   
   race, what, of   
   course, really matters is the number of seats parties can be expected to win.   
      
   This is not easy to determine as our first-past-the-post (single member   
   plurality) system   
   so badly distorts how votes are translated into seats.   
      
   So I have constructed a statistical model by which to estimate party seat   
   totals from   
   polling results. This model suggests that with 32 per cent of the vote, the   
   B.C. Liberals   
   would win only 14 legislative seats.   
      
   On the other hand, with support levels of 44 per cent, the NDP could expect to   
   win 71 of   
   85 seats. While my statistical modelling has proven true in the past, I think   
   we need to   
   be careful in how we look at the Mustel polling numbers. While I believe the   
   poll   
   accurately reflects the extent to which people support the various parties,   
   translating   
   this support to voting is not automatic as, for one, all parties do not have   
   the same   
   ability to get their supporters to the polls.   
      
   With this in mind, I doubt a fringe party like the B.C. Conservatives can   
   raise the   
   resources needed to pull its voters on election day with the same efficiency   
   as the B.C.   
   Liberals or NDP. This is indeed what just happened to the Liberal Democrats in   
   the recent   
   British general election, in which the party's final levels of support were   
   much lower   
   than the polls indicated they would be.   
      
   As such, I suspect if a B.C. election were indeed held today votes cast for   
   the B.C.   
   Liberal party would be closer to 36 per cent which, according to my model,   
   gives the   
   Liberals 25 seats and the NDP around 60. Still a Liberal wipeout, but perhaps   
   not as bad   
   as what the poll first indicates.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)