XPost: bc.politics, ab.politics, van.general   
   XPost: vic.general, can.politics   
   From: Çons@minority#s   
      
   Pipeline polling should be easy to understand   
   Posted on August 2, 2012 by Ian   
      
   Deliberate misunderstanding or ideologically blinkered coverage that distorts   
   and lies?   
      
   I'm opting for the latter because there's no other way to explain the   
   distortions found in   
   National Post's piece on the latest Forum poll on BC voting trends conducted   
   Tuesday   
   on-line.   
      
   Here's the lead:   
      
   "B.C. Premier Christy Clark's confrontation with Alberta over a planned oil   
   pipeline hasn't   
   produced the hoped-for boost in her popularity, according to a poll."   
      
   That much is true.  Forum's results came in almost exactly as their last poll   
   - before   
   Clark's apparently biblical revelation on Enbridge's Gateway project.   
      
   "The poll, by Forum Research, shows the NDP would still win 79 of the 85 seats   
   in the   
   provincial legislature if an election were held today. Clark's Liberals, who   
   rank barely   
   ahead of the moribund provincial Conservative party, would be reduced to four   
   seats.   
      
   "It's a pretty startling number, especially given that another poll shows   
   almost 60% of   
   voters agree with Clark's opposition to the Northern Gateway pipeline, which   
   is at the   
   heart of the dispute with Alberta. The survey by Angus Reid found that 35% of   
   respondents   
   were dead set against the pipeline under any conditions, while 24% could be   
   swayed - i.e.   
   bought off - if Clark succeeded in extorting billions of dollars from Alberta   
   for dropping   
   her opposition."   
      
   I call BS.   
      
   Clark's numbers are not startling for anyone remotely informed on BC politics   
   or Enbridge.   
   And Angus Reid showed nothing even close to what the reporter claimed.   
      
   Let me dissemble.   
      
   Reid's on-line poll found that 59% of BCers opposed the pipeline - close to   
   Forum's   
   result.   Of those 35% were dead against and 24% said they could (not will)   
   change their   
   opposition depending upon environmental and economic gains.  And contrary to   
   what the   
   reporter claimed it's not "economic gains" that matter most.  The strongest   
   reasons for   
   changing opposition to support are environmental guarantees.  Money ain't   
   enough.   
      
   Worse for Clark, the Post reporter fails to mention that her own meagre share   
   of voters is   
   at risk with her gamble.  Only 7% of British Columbians support the pipeline   
   unconditionally.  Another 21% are leaning towards supporting it depending upon   
   the   
   economic and environmental benefits on the table in Clark's mind.  If she   
   doesn't come   
   through they're not necessarily there.   
      
   But the basic mistake in the National Post piece and Clark's strategy in   
   general is this:   
   BC voters aren't making up their mind on issues like this.  Clark's numbers   
   aren't in the   
   tank because of Enbridge.  They're in the tank because the average voter   
   doesn't trust   
   Clark and her BC Liberal government one bit.   
      
   And who can blame voters?  The BC Liberals lied about BC Rail.  They lied   
   about the   
   deficit in 2009.  They lied about the HST.  Isn't it common sense to assume   
   they're lying   
   about Enbridge and that the day after the election a re-elected BC Liberal   
   government   
   would sit down with Enbridge and start laying pipe?   
      
   A commentator who finds it "startling" that Clark hasn't changed that with a   
   staged   
   performance piece at a Premier's meeting shouldn't be reporting on BC politics.   
      
      
   ================================================================   
               We hang the petty thieves and appoint the greater ones to public   
   office   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)