XPost: bc.politics, van.general, vic.general   
   XPost: nanaimo.general   
   From: "@nyet.ca   
      
   Big time.   
   ___________________________________________________   
      
   CBC News Posted: Jun 16, 2014   
      
      
   On the controversial B.C. pipeline, PM can say yes, no or not yet, but   
   all answers come with a cost   
      
   The Northern Gateway pipeline would travel through pristine B.C.   
   wilderness, crossing two major mountain ranges and ending at Kitimat.   
   Opposition to the project in B.C. is high.   
      
      
   The federal government must announce a decision on whether to allow   
   Enbridge's Northern Gateway pipeline to proceed by the end of day   
   Tuesday, and all three possible options have big political price tags   
   attached to them.   
      
   "It is a no-win politically. If they back off Northern Gateway it's a   
   significant loss to their resource development. If they push forward,   
   it's at great political risk to the future of the Harper Conservatives,"   
   says University of British Columbia political scientist George Hoberg   
   about the pipeline that is supposed to carry oilsands crude from Alberta   
   to waiting tankers on British Columbia‛s remote north coast.   
      
   The decision on Tuesday, which The Canadian Press reported will come   
   after the close of markets, could be the final step in a regulatory   
   process that began in May 2010, when Enbridge submitted its application   
   to the National Energy Board. There was a Joint Review Panel that heard   
   from communities along the proposed route. It ended with the NEB‛s   
   approval of the project but with 209 conditions.   
      
   Now the federal cabinet must make one of three decisions:   
      
        Reject the pipeline.   
        Allow the pipeline to proceed along the NEB's lines.   
        Delay a decision and send it back to the NEB for more consideration.   
      
   Reject or approve?   
      
   The first and most unlikely option — an outright rejection — would   
   be unexpected to say the least. The Conservative government has made no   
   secret of its support for resource development in general and the   
   oilsands in particular.   
      
   "The Canadian economy has been bolstered by resource revenue, and it's   
   important that we continue to see that revenue sustained and grow," said   
   Finance Minister Joe Oliver after meeting with private sector economists   
   on Monday in Ottawa.   
      
   To do that, the Conservative argument goes, Canada needs to diversify   
   its markets beyond the United States by exporting oil to Asia. The most   
   direct route is through B.C. to the Pacific coast, and the safest and   
   cheapest way to do that is by increasing pipeline capacity.   
      
   Rejecting Northern Gateway at this stage would signal an inconceivable   
   break with Conservative policy. It would cut the feet out from under the   
   oil industry and enrage the party base in Alberta.   
      
   Next on the options list would be to accept the NEB's recommendations   
   and allow the pipeline to proceed, which would keep the Conservative   
   base and the oil industry happy, but fuel a raging political fire in B.C.   
      
   Hoberg sees a province where almost two-thirds of the people are against   
   the project or want to delay it. He compares Prime Minister Stephen   
   Harper's predicament with that of Pierre Trudeau and the National Energy   
   Program in 1980, when a federal Liberal government imposed its plan for   
   energy on Alberta.   
      
   "Federal Conservatives know very well what happens if a federal   
   government tries to force its will against a reluctant or opposed   
   province," said Hoberg.   
      
   The big problems for the project on the West Coast are a non-committal   
   provincial government in Victoria and motivated environmentalists. But   
   there is also major First Nations opposition to the project, and that   
   seems to worry Ottawa the most.   
      
   B.C. Premier Christy Clark is opposed to the pipeline as it currently   
   exists and she has her own five conditions for getting her government   
   onside with Ottawa. One of them is a "fair share of the fiscal and   
   economic benefits." Recently, though, the B.C. government has been quiet   
   on the subject.   
      
   On the environmental front, advocacy group the Dogwood Initiative is   
   pushing for a referendum on the pipeline, while a coalition of   
   anti-Northern Gateway groups called Enbridge21 is aiming a   
   letter-writing campaign at the Conservatives' 21 MPs in B.C. A green   
   light from Ottawa on the project could add support to both campaigns and   
   threaten the election prospects of federal Tory candidates in B.C. in 2015.   
      
   B.C. environmentalists also have two cases related to Northern Gateway   
   before the courts, and at least two B.C. First Nations are challenging   
   the pipeline in court.   
      
      
   First Nations challenge   
      
   First Nations opposition to the project is a major preoccupation for   
   Ottawa. It also poses the greatest political threat. B.C. is largely   
   unceded territory. Most First Nations in the province have never   
   negotiated treaties with the Crown, meaning rights to the land the   
   pipeline would traverse are unclear.   
      
   First Nations support is a major concern for the Tory plan of   
   "responsible resource development." A recent report for Ottawa by   
   special representative Doug Eyford suggested numerous ways of getting   
   B.C.'s natives on board with its plan and also said that it is "never   
   too late to engage."   
      
      
   Pollster Nik Nanos thinks it would be more politically savvy for the   
   prime minister to delay the decision.   
      
   "If he decides to say he supports the project wholeheartedly but that he   
   would like to slow things down a bit, that would probably give him   
   enough political cover to send the signal he supports the Northern   
   Gateway pipeline but would like British Columbians to sort through a   
   solution," he told CBC News earlier this month.   
      
   But even that option has political costs.   
      
   After demanding for years that U.S. President Barack Obama quit delaying   
   and make a decision on Keystone XL, the irony of Harper delaying a   
   decision on the Northern Gateway pipeline would be hard for his critics   
   to overlook.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)