XPost: can.politics, ab.politics, ont.politics   
   XPost: sk.politics, man.politics, mtl.general   
   From: Paula@nyet.ca   
      
   CBC News Posted: Dec 23, 2014   
      
   What should be on the federal leaders' polling wish list?   
      
   The leaders are nestled all snug in their beds, with visions of seat gains   
   dancing in their heads   
      
      
   The leaders of Canada's political parties have undoubtedly already written   
   their Christmas wish lists — a pair of sandals, a beard trimmer, maybe even a   
   fuzzy sweater.   
      
   But if they could receive a gift from the pollsters, what might they wish for?   
   . . . . .   
      
   Blue Christmas (in Ontario)   
      
   Topping Stephen Harper's polling wish list should be for his party to regain   
   the lead in seat-rich Ontario.  It was the province that gave the prime   
   minister a majority government in 2011, and it is the only province that can   
   give him another one in 2015.  Moreover, for Harper, a majority government may   
   be the only means of staying in office.   
      
   The Conservatives are still competitive in Ontario, having trimmed the margin   
   that separated them from the Liberals earlier this year.  But they have yet to   
   consistently move ahead in the polls.  The province is where every vote taken   
   away from the Liberals gives the Conservatives the highest return in seats.  A   
   return to 40 per cent or higher would certainly bode well for the Conservative   
   Party's re-election odds next year.   
      
   As a stocking-stuffer, Harper might also wish for some strong numbers in the   
   Quebec City region.  The New Democrats took the city in the last election, but   
   have lost some of their support to the Liberals.  If the Tories can bounce back   
   in the provincial capital, they may be able to squeeze between the two and win   
   some new seats.   
      
      
   Do they know it's Mulcair?   
      
   ​What Tom Mulcair would be glad to see from the polls would be a drop in the   
   number of Canadians outside Quebec who say they have no opinion of the NDP   
   leader.  In some polls, this still represents as much as one in three   
   Canadians, compared to half that number for Justin Trudeau and a third of it   
   for Harper.  Mulcair needs his numbers to improve outside of Quebec if the NDP   
   is to have any hope of being in the running to form the government in 2015.   
   And considering that those who do have an opinion of Mulcair tend to have a   
   positive one, particularly in important provinces for the NDP like British   
   Columbia, he stands to gain by becoming better known.   
      
   A smaller present Mulcair might like to get from the pollsters would be   
   stronger numbers in the Prairies.  With the boundary changes in Saskatchewan,   
   an opportunity for new seat gains there has opened up for the New Democrats.   
   But the party is struggling in the region in the polls. An uptick here could   
   pay some serious seat dividends.   
      
      
   N'oublie pas mon petit Trudeau   
      
   Trudeau might want to write his wish list in French.  His party would benefit   
   greatly from an improvement in their polling numbers among francophones in   
   Quebec.  While the Liberals lead provincewide, they trail the NDP among   
   francophones and that could have real implications in the number of seats each   
   party could win in Quebec.   By making some inroads among francophones, Trudeau   
   would close the seat gap in the province with the NDP, as well as decrease some   
   of the imbalance that exists between the Conservatives' strength in the West   
   and the Liberals' strength in the East.   
      
   In his stocking, though, he could use some more growth in Alberta and the   
   Prairies as well, in order to capitalize on the party's good byelection results   
   in the region and turn those close contests into seat wins in 2015.   
      
      
   Green Christmas (for B.C.)   
      
   For Elizabeth May, she should wish for another breakthrough for her party in   
   British Columbia.  The Greens' polling numbers in the province are respectable,   
   and make May's re-election a good bet.  But she would like to be joined by a   
   second elected Green MP, and it is B.C. that could deliver one.  Moving from   
   around eight to 11 per cent to closer to 15 per cent may go a long way towards   
   securing that second B.C. seat.   
      
      
   Jingle Bell Bloc   
      
   It doesn't look like it will be a happy holiday season for the Bloc   
   Québécois,   
   which remains mired in the polls well below even its disastrous showing of   
   2011.   Mario Beaulieu, who was named leader in the summer, needs his own   
   personal numbers to improve.  His approval ratings are dismal, with three   
   times, even four times as many Quebecers saying their disapprove of Beaulieu   
   than approve of him.  At this stage, it doesn't look like the sovereignty issue   
   will carry the Bloc to its old stature in the province.   Having a likeable   
   leader would help.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)