XPost: can.politics, ab.politics, ont.politics   
   XPost: sk.politics, man.politics, mtl.general   
   From: puela@nyet.ca   
      
   The simply lie about skilled worker shortages.  Full stop.   
   __________________________________________   
   CBC News Posted: Jan 11, 2015   
      
      
   Apprenticeship ad's claim of skilled trades shortfall open to question   
      
   Lack of labour market data casts doubt on forecast of jobs needed over next   
   decade   
      
      
   A government ad to promote the new Canada apprentice loan program claims the   
   Canadian economy will need "one million skilled tradesmen and women" over the   
   next decade.   
      
   But independent forecasts and even the government's own projections tell a   
   different story.   
      
   The government pointed CBC News to "a combination of industry estimates,"   
   several of which were written by Rick Miner, the president of Miner & Miner   
   Ltd., a management consulting firm specializing in labour market issues.   
      
   Miner concluded that Canada will face a "major problem" with skilled worker   
   shortages if nothing changes over the next 16 years.   
      
   But he told CBC News his projections are for overall labour and for skilled   
   labour, not specific to the trades.   
      
   "I think you'd have a tough time finding somebody who is going to back that   
   unless they have a real broad definition of both the trades and a broad   
   definition of what they define as shortage," Miner said.   
      
   "If somebody said … right now there's a shortage of a million workers in the   
   trades in Canada, I'd say that's an inflated number.   That's not true."   
      
   Asked if he could point to labour data showing Canada would face a shortage of   
   "one million skilled trades" workers over the next decade, Miner said he could   
   not.   
      
   The government also pointed to a 2013 estimate by the Canadian Chamber of   
   Commerce.  But Sarah Anson-Cartwright, the chamber's director of skills policy,   
   told CBC News those forecasts originated from Miner's older reports, which are   
   not specific to the trades and have since been reviewed.   
      
   "The Canadian chamber does not cite the forecasts from Miner's 2010 and 2012   
   reports since they are out-dated now."   
      
      
   Skilled workers vs. trades   
      
   The government also pointed to a 14-year-old Conference Board of Canada report   
   that found the labour shortfall could reach nearly a million workers by 2020.   
      
   But the non-profit think-tank revisited the report a little over a year ago and   
   publicly said the so-called "million worker shortfall" was "not possible" and   
   widely "misunderstood."   
      
   "In that same report, we explained that a worker shortfall is 'logically   
   impossible,'" wrote Pedro Antunes, the deputy chief economist at the Conference   
   Board of Canada, in a commentary published on Nov. 11, 2013.   
      
   "Essentially, the economy has to operate with the workers that are available   
   —   
   by substituting labour for capital and reducing production," he wrote.   
      
   Antunes told CBC News the Conference Board of Canada saw fit to revisit the   
   2000 report because "we were seeing the number bandied about and it was an old   
   forecast that was done over a decade ago."   
      
   He also said the decade-old report was about overall employment and not just   
   about the trades.   
      
   "Trades is absolutely part of it but when we talked about skilled workers, it   
   was in general … it was not specific to trades."​   
      
      
   Shortages in 'high-skilled' jobs   
      
   In announcing the new loan in B.C. this week, Prime Minister Stephen Harper was   
   more careful, citing "one million additional skilled workers" — not a   
   shortfall   
   of "trades" workers.   
      
   Even the government's most recent projections, by Employment and Social   
   Development Canada, show that labour shortages over the period of 2013-22 are   
   projected "mostly in high-skilled occupations."   
      
   According to the government's outlook, 47 occupations are expected to face   
   shortages by 2022, with the majority of those in the health sector.   
   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^   
   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^   
      
   Only six of the 47 occupations facing labour shortages are in what the   
   government calls "trades, transport and equipment," which includes electrical   
   trades, heavy construction equipment crews and welders, among others.   
      
   The government does not give a projection for workers in the trades, but it   
   does provide a forecast by different skill levels.   
      
   Occupations with significant health and safety responsibilities, such as   
   firefighters, police officers and nurses, are assigned to skill level B, a   
   category that also includes chefs, electricians and plumbers.   
      
   The report shows that while jobs in this wide-ranging category are "overall ...   
   projected to be in balance" over the period of 2013-22, 18 occupations in this   
   category are projected to face a shortage of 846,000 workers.   
      
   Other estimates in the mining, oil and gas, and construction sectors predict   
   labour shortages ranging from 116,800 to as many as 300,000 workers over the   
   next decade, depending on the industry.   
   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^      (and Saudi Arabia  ^_^   )   
      
   Miner said part of the reason there is no national data specific to labour   
   shortages in the trades is because there is an absence of good labour market   
   data overall.   
      
   Even Employment Minister Jason Kenney has acknowledged a weakness in Canada's   
   labour data and promised to take action, beginning with two new labour market   
   studies at a cost of $14 million.   
   	   
      
   Apprenticeship loans   
      
   The new government ad also claims students registered in a Red Seal trade   
   apprenticeship will be able to apply for "interest free" loans of up to $4,000   
   per period of technical training, but the terms of repayment make it clear the   
   loan will have to be paid back with interest once the training is completed.   
      
   The government said ESDC consulted Advertising Standards Canada before airing   
   the ads and verified that "requirements under the Canadian Code of Advertising   
   Standards were met."   
      
   The department would not say how much it was spending on the 30-second   
   television ad.   
      
   Watch the ad from Employment and Social Development Canada  (and note the   
   "interest-free" BS in it)   
      
   		https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Y_3dpdC_Rr4   
      
      
        		   
        	   
        		   
        	   
        		   
        	   
        		   
        	   
        		   
        	   
        		   
      
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        2511 Comments   
      
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        rubblepile   
      
   jason kenny would spend 14 million on getting a report about weakness on   
   "labour data" ?   
   Well Kenny what have you exactly been doing up to this point? You are proving   
   the point that you and your leader have no clue about what you speak of. Now   
      
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