XPost: can.politics, sk.politics, ab.politics   
   XPost: edmonton.general   
   From: {~_~}@nyet.ca   
      
   . . . . Than just keeping on electing Tories.  They're learning the hard   
   way that their wheat board, their social programs and their resources   
   can be under better stewardship.   
   ________________________________________   
   National Post - | March 28, 2014   
      
   The Prairies may be Tory heartland, but pieces of it seem increasingly   
   up for grabs   
      
      
   For almost a decade, the Conservatives have been able to count on   
   sweeping Canada’s prairie heartland, and in 2011 only more so: In   
   Alberta and Saskatchewan, only two ridings managed to evade the big blue   
   wave that gave Stephen Harper a majority.   
      
   The prairies are so safe that many Alberta Conservative MPs, including   
   the Prime Minister, don’t bother to campaign in their ridings after the   
   writ drops. The Conservative party has only increased its vote share in   
   several successive elections.   
      
   There will be no revolution in the next election, set for Oct. 19, 2015.   
   But there are signs of an evolution, with several factors at play; both   
   NDP leader Thomas Mulcair and Liberal Justin Trudeau think enough of   
   their prospects in Alberta (34 seats in 2015) and Saskatchewan (14   
   seats) that they are making regular stops in Tory territory.   
      
   A redrawn electoral map, a national Liberal resurgence in the polls and   
   shifting demographics have begat speculation that between five and nine   
   federal ridings in Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatchewan could be   
   vulnerable to Liberal or NDP gains.   
      
   “We know we have a long way to come back from,” says Saskatchewan MP   
   Ralph Goodale, the lone Liberal on the Prairies. (The other non-Tory,   
   the NDP’s Linda Duncan, represents Edmonton-Strathcona.)   
      
   For now, the opposition parties are taking baby steps, taking moral   
   victories even if they can’t gain actual seats.   
      
   For the Liberals, it was the 2012 by-election in Calgary Centre:   
   Conservative Joan Crockatt won by fewer than 1,200 votes, with a steep   
   decline in Tory vote share from 58% just a year earlier to 37%.   
      
   Liberals hope the seat may be made more vulnerable in 2015 by   
   re-distributing and the expected candidacy of Chima Nkemdirim, chief of   
   staff to Mayor Naheed Nenshi.   
      
   “There’s a lot of talk after the last election that if you run the right   
   Liberal candidate, there’s a chance to coalesce,” said Brian Thiessen, a   
   Calgary lawyer and political activist who helped found the provincial   
   Alberta Party, who said he hopes to be Mr. Nkendirim’s campaign manager   
   should he choose to run.   
      
   “If you look at the part of the riding that was shaved off between 37th   
   Street and Sarcee Trail, the very west end of the riding, those were all   
   the polls that went to the Conservatives. Those have all been shaved off.”   
      
   The riding was once held by Red Tory Joe Clark. Ms. Crockatt replaced   
   Lee Richardson, another Red Tory who quit to join then-premier Alison   
   Redford’s staff.   
      
   The newly formed nearby riding of Calgary Confederation could also prove   
   difficult for the Conservatives; it includes the University of Calgary   
   and several downtown communities filled with younger Calgarians, who   
   tend to vote less, but not vote Conservative when they do.   
      
   Similarly, in Edmonton longtime Tory MP Laurie Hawn is retiring in   
   Edmonton-Centre, which is next door to Ms. Duncan’s Edmonton-Strathcona   
   riding.   
      
   Edmonton-Centre once belonged to Liberal Anne McLellan — nicknamed   
   “Landslide Annie” for her narrow victories — and is something of a   
   bellwether; over the past few elections the poll-by-poll results have   
   mirrored political trends across the country.   
      
   When broken down by poll, maps of Edmonton Centre have traditionally   
   reflected a quilt of blue and red. Since 2004, Liberal support rapidly   
   dwindled in the riding.  Then, in 2011, when Conservative blue swamped   
   the dying Liberal vote, the centre-left vote gravitated NDP.   
      
   “Whenever there is no incumbent, that throws it a little more open than   
   it normally would be. We basically doubled the vote count over the   
   Liberals and the NDP last time,” Mr. Hawn said. “But the Liberals will   
   be picking a new candidate and I’m sure they’ll be quality folks. The   
   unknown factor is the Justin [Trudeau] factor. With the lack of Jack   
   [Layton] it will probably be more competitive. But we built up a very   
   strong plurality.”   
      
   Harold Robinson, one of three people seeking the Liberal nomination in   
   the riding, said the city is the type of place that would tend to lean   
   left if it were in any other province.  The neighbourhoods are mature   
   and diverse, with a mix of artisans, blue and white collar workers.   
      
   “Here’s my theory. There was always that possibility of Edmonton Centre   
   voting left.  My theory is that Harper is focusing so hard on trade and   
   the military and being tough on crime and not necessarily doing a great   
   job on any of those fronts, that folks who voted Conservative and made a   
   clear choice last time — I’m thinking they may stay home in numbers,” he   
   said.   
      
   In Saskatchewan, a comprehensive rethink of ridings around Saskatoon and   
   Regina is also expected to put several seats in play.   
      
   Constituencies in those cities used to be sliced like a pie, tying urban   
   centres to rural ones. In the next election, those ridings will be   
   re-drawn to create more city-focused seats — which usually gives   
   centre-left parties an edge.   
      
   “There are no incumbents left, either,” said David McGrane, political   
   science professor at the university of Saskatchewan. “Because of the   
   no-incumbent effect for the Conservatives, there are two that are going   
   to be a really tough fight in Saskatoon.”   
      
   Mr. McGrane said he would be watching Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, where   
   NDP candidate Nettie Wiebe, a women’s studies professor, lost to the   
   reigning Conservative Kelly Block by about 500 votes in 2011.   
      
   Most of her support came from urban centres, Mr. McGrane said. With the   
   re-positioning of rural regions on the electoral map, Ms. Wiebe may take   
   that seat handily.   
      
   “The NDP are in striking distance of three seats. [They’re] looking to   
   knock off as many as five Conservatives in the province, three in   
   Saskatoon, one in Regina and in a really large northern riding, too,   
   there’s some vulnerability there.”   
      
   Mr. Goodale is certainly counting on Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s   
   popularity to bring Liberal gains across the region, and he also points   
   to changing demographics. Newcomers are arriving in the Prairies at a   
   startling rate, and they skew young.   
      
   “The ground is shifting, as it is generally across Western Canada,” Mr.   
   Goodale said.   
      
   He, and people like him across the political spectrum, are waiting to   
   see just how much.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)