XPost: can.politics, ab.politics, edm.general   
   From: puela@nyet.ca   
      
   CBC News Posted: Jan 08, 2015   
      
      
   Oil price slide: Alberta should look at carbon tax, economist says   
   Jeff Rubin says province should decrease economic dependence on oilsands to   
   deal with low oil prices   
      
      
   A prominent economist who once predicted the price of oil would exceed $200 a   
   barrel says the current low price is a chance for Alberta to take a fresh look   
   at how it gets its revenue.   
      
   In 2008, Jeff Rubin, then chief economist at CIBC World Markets, predicted the   
   price of oil would hit $225 a barrel by 2012.      <<====   ^ω^   
      
   But since then, there has been a flood of new supply from Texas and the   
   Dakotas, flattening prices, Rubin said.   
      
   The sooner Alberta decreases its economic dependence on the oilsands, the   
   better off the province will be, he said.   
      
   “Maybe it’s a time instead of relying on bitumen royalties to start taxing   
   carbon for a change,” he said.   
      
   “I mean, you know, B.C. has a lower personal income tax rate than Alberta.   
   Now   
   true, you pay a lot more at the pump, but the whole idea of a carbon tax is to   
   discourage you from using as much at the pump.”   
      
   Alberta already has one emissions-reduction levy — the Specified Gas Emitters   
   Regulation (SGER) — which was introduced in 2007.   
      
   It requires facilities that emit more than 100,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases   
   per year to cap their emissions intensity at 12 per cent below the average for   
     2003-2005, or pay a penalty for exceeding their targets of $15 for every   
   tonne over the limit.   
      
      
   Growth forecast gloomy   
      
   Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter predicts Alberta's growth rate   
   will be chopped in half in 2015 because of low oil prices, knocking the   
   province off the podium as Canada's fastest growing economy.   
      
   “Alberta has by far and away led the country in growth rates in the last 10   
   years,” he said.   
      
   “But we see its growth rate going from about three and a half to maybe one   
   and   
   a half per cent in the year ahead, depending on where oil prices settle out.”   
      
   Porter says B.C, and Ontario will benefit because of the lower costs for the   
   manufacturing sectors.   
      
      
   Just a blip?   
      
   However in his 2015 Alberta economic outlook released on Wednesday, ATB   
   Financial chief economist Todd Hirsch predicts the price of oil to bounce back   
   to about $75 a barrel by the end of the year.   
      
   He said a recession is unlikely and that this downturn is probably just a blip.   
      
   “Nonetheless, we are going to be in for a few months here, maybe the first   
   half   
   of the year, where it is going to feel a little bit rocky.   I do think we are   
   in for some layoffs in the province, already we've been seeing signs of   
   that.”   
      
   Hirsch said smaller oil and gas producers will bear the brunt of the low   
   prices.   
      
   If the price of oil is still below $50 in six months, there would be more   
   reason for concern, he said.   
      
   In the meantime, Hirsch says low prices will help other industries, including   
   forestry, tourism and agriculture.   
      
   He added that he does not expect any major changes in house prices.   
      
      
      
      
   ==================================================================   
     It is horrifying that we have to fight our own government to save the   
   environment   
      
                                ~  Ansel Adams   
   ==================================================================   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)