XPost: soc.culture.canada, can.atlantic.general, can.general   
   XPost: can.politics, soc.culture.quebec   
   From: abc@a123.ca   
      
   Tories hit 43% support: poll   
      
    Tuesday, Mar. 1, 2011   
      
   OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have opened up a   
   wide lead against their political rivals in public favour and would be   
   close to winning a majority if an election occurred now, a new poll has   
   found.   
      
   The national survey, conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global   
   National, found that the Tories are now supported by 43% of decided   
   voters — up by four points from early February.   
      
   That finding by pollster Ipsos Reid is significant, as the level of   
   support is near the threshold that experts believe the Tories need to win   
   their long-coveted majority.   
      
   The Conservatives haven’t been this popular since they enjoyed a brief   
   spike in the polls in December 2008 when Canadians were opposed to the   
   opposition parties’ efforts to create a coalition government.   
      
   The new survey shows the Tories have a 16-point lead over the Liberals,   
   led by Michael Ignatieff. The Grits, who have been trying to stoke voter   
   anger over the government’s performance, have the support of 27% of   
   voters, up by two points.   
      
   Jack Layton’s NDP appears to be in political decline as it makes demands   
   to the government over what should be in the budget. The New Democrats   
   would receive 13% of the vote, down by five points.   
      
   Similarly, the Green party, led by Elizabeth May, is in trouble. It would   
   receive five per cent of the vote, down by five points.   
      
   Gilles Duceppe’s Bloc Quebecois has 10%of the vote nationally and still   
   has a commanding lead in Quebec.   
      
   “What you’re seeing in the numbers is a continuation of a trend that   
   started over the past two months,” said Ipsos Reid president Darrell   
   Bricker on Tuesday.   
      
   “And one could say that with these types of numbers, the Tories are well   
   poised to potentially form a majority.”   
      
   Bricker said that two major factors are at work: Canadians are generally   
   optimistic about the economy and are giving credit to the Harper   
   government, and the negative Conservative TV ads which take aim at   
   Ignatieff’s political ambitions and patriotism are working.   
      
   “The Tories have been uncontested on television screens in this country,”   
   said Bricker.   
      
   “The only thing that people know about Michael Ignatieff is what the   
   Conservatives have told them.”   
      
   Bricker said another trend is occurring which works in the Tories’   
   favour: They are increasingly attracting support beyond their traditional   
   base.   
      
   The new poll finds the Tories receiving more support from middle-income   
   Canadians, women, university-educated voters and foreign-born Canadians.   
      
   “They’re flattening out those demographic differences and becoming more   
   mainstream,” said Bricker.   
      
   The poll finds strong support throughout the West for the Tories,   
   including in British Columbia, where there are some key seats up for   
   grabs in the next election.   
      
   Most importantly, said Bricker, the Conservatives remain well ahead in   
   vote-rich Ontario. That province has tended to be volatile in recent   
   months, with voters changing their voting intentions almost by the week.   
      
   But this is the second straight poll where the Tories are strongly in   
   first place in Ontario, suggesting that the vote there is solidifying.   
      
   The federal political parties are preparing for the possibility of an   
   election that could be precipitated by a budget in late March.   
      
   The odds of an election occurring hinge on whether Harper decides to   
   avert one by including enough concessions in the budget to secure the   
   support of the NDP.   
      
   In every region but Quebec, the Tories are leading in public opinion.   
      
   In Ontario, the Tories stand at 45%, compared to 33% for the Liberals,   
   14% for the NDP, and 4% for the Green party.   
      
   In Quebec, the Bloc is supported by 41% of decided voters, with the   
   Liberals at 27%, the Tories at 19%, the NDP at 6%, and the Green party at   
   4%.   
      
   In B.C., the Tories have 48% of the vote, compared to 22% for the NDP,   
   21% for the Liberals and 8% for the Green party.   
      
   In Alberta, the Tories stand at 68% support, while the Liberals have 17%,   
   the NDP have 10% and the Green party has 4%.   
      
   In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Tories are ahead at 59%, while the Liberals   
   and NDP both have 17% and the Green party has 7%.   
      
   In the Atlantic region, the Tories are at 52%, followed by the Liberals   
   at 33%, the NDP at 12% and the Green party at 4%.   
      
   The poll was a telephone survey of 1,001 adult Canadians taken Feb. 23-27   
   and its national results have a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points,   
   19 times out of 20.   
      
   The margin of error for the regional results are: B.C. (9%); Alberta   
   (9.8%); Manitoba/Saskatchewan (12.1%); Ontario (4.9%); Quebec (6.2%);   
   Atlantic Canada (12.1%).   
      
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