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|    can.politics    |    Libs bitching about what they voted for    |    997,123 messages    |
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|    Message 995,906 of 997,123    |
|    AlleyCat to All    |
|    Another Instance Of Correlation Vs..Caus    |
|    12 Jan 26 23:46:09    |
      XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.politics.democrats       From: katt@gmail.com              This is another great example of the Post Hoc Fallacy (assuming because one       thing happened after another, the first thing caused the second).              When a troll, like Lee, throws a list like this at you, he's hoping you won't       check the specific "why" behind each closure. Most of these events were set in       motion long before 2025 or were caused by internal corporate restructuring       that has nothing to do with current tariffs.              Here is the breakdown of the logic for these specific cases.              1. The "Why" Behind the Layoffs              I have looked into the specific reasons for several of the examples you       provided. Notice how they aren't about tariffs:              BlueOval SK (Kentucky/Tennessee): This is a restructuring by Ford. They are       pivoting away from electric vehicles (EVs) because consumer demand was lower       than they projected back in 2021-2022. They are actually planning to rehire       2,100 people later after they retool the plant for battery storage-a long-term       corporate pivot.              Alabama Plant (Renfro Brands): The Fort Payne plant that shut down after 60       years was actually announced in October 2024. The company (Renfro) stated they       were moving production to Tennessee and offshore to "adjust their supply       chain." This was a decision made before the 2024 election even happened.              Missouri Food Companies (General Mills): These closures were part of a 'multi-       year supply chain restructuring" announced in late 2024/early 2025. They are       closing older facilities to consolidate into newer, more efficient ones to       save $100 million.              Kansas City Transportation (Railcrew Xpress): This was triggered by contract       cancellations and mergers in the rail industry (like the Union Pacific and       Norfolk Southern merger), not import taxes.              2. Identifying the "Idiotic Logic"              The troll is using a Gish Gallop. This is a tactic where someone overwhelms       you with a 'mountain" of examples so you don't have time to debunk each one.              Their logic is: "Look at all this bad news! It's happening now, so it must be       the President's fault."              The Rebuttal Logic:              Lag Time: Major plant closures take 12-24 months of planning. A company       doesn't decide to shut a 60-year-old plant on Jan 1st because of a tariff that       started in January.              Specific Causality: If tariffs were the cause, the companies would state that       in their SEC filings or WARN notices to protect their stock price. Instead,       they are citing "EV demand," 'mergers," and "restructuring."              One Baby Step at a Time              Since we are following the muffin rule:              Step 1: Would you like me to give you a "Counter-List" that explains the       actual reason for each of those specific layoffs so you can post them one by       one?              =============================================================================              "Trump Derangement Syndrome" Is a Real Mental Condition              All you need to know about "Trump Derangement Syndrome," or TDS.              "Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) is a mental condition in which a person has       been driven effectively insane due to their dislike of Donald Trump, to the       point at which they will abandon all logic and reason."              Justin Raimondo, the editorial director of Antiwar.com, wrote a piece in the       Los Angeles Times in 2016 that broke TDS down into three distinct phases or       stages:              "In the first stage of the disease, victims lose all sense of proportion. The       president-elect's every tweet provokes a firestorm, as if 140 characters were       all it took to change the world."              "The mid-level stages of TDS have a profound effect on the victim's       vocabulary: Sufferers speak a distinctive language consisting solely of       hyperbole."              "As TDS progresses, the afflicted lose the ability to distinguish fantasy from       reality."              The Point here is simple: TDS is, in the eyes of its adherents, the knee-jerk       opposition from liberals to anything and everything Trump does. If Trump       announced he was donating every dollar he's ever made, TDS sufferers would       suggest he was up to something nefarious, according to the logic of TDS.       There's nothing - not. one. thing. - that Trump could do or say that would be       received positively by TDSers.              The history of Trump Derangement Syndrome actually goes back to the early       2000s - a time when the idea of Trump as president was a punch line for late-       night comics and nothing more.              Wikipedia traces its roots to "Bush Derangement Syndrome" - a term first       coined by the late conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer back in 2003.       The condition, as Krauthammer defined it, was "the acute onset of paranoia in       otherwise normal people in reaction to the policies, the presidency - nay -       the very existence of George W. Bush."              --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05        * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)    |
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