XPost: can.general, can.politics, ott.generalThei   
   From: Canuck57@nospam.com   
      
   On 18/09/2011 6:33 PM, John Fleming wrote:   
      
   >> $Agreed, but if return is too low, why invest?  All the risk for 1%?  Not   
   >> $worth the effort nor the risk.   
   >   
   > Absolutely!!   
   >   
   > The US economy is in pretty rough shape right now, and all   
   > this quantitative easing notwithstanding, is likely to stay   
   > that way for some time to come.   
      
   Agreed, it took Russia 2 decades.  It took a decade in 1929/32.  There   
   are no short term easy fixes for this.   
      
   >> $The term "jobless recovery" is inflation at work.  GDP is dollars, not   
   >> $jobs with goods shipped or consumption, it is a pure dollar measurement.   
   >> $  GDP goes up, actually goods shipped is reduced or remains the same is   
   >> $jobless recovery and inflation.  Only with more goods shipped and   
   >> $consumed can you have job recovery and GDP is irrelevant here.  It is   
   >> $also possible for deflation to cause GDP to shrink, meaning people can   
   >> $buy and employ more.   
   >   
   > The reason governments are so scared of deflaition is   
   > because they are up to their eyeballs in debt.  The last   
   > thing you want is to owe a lot of money when prices (and by   
   > extension, revenue) are declining.   
      
   That is what they would have you believe bit it is BS.  Just liberal   
   economics BS.  If prices go down (deflation) people can aquire more   
   goods requiring more taxable labor and GST.   
      
   The things fleabagger economists forget is if you generate inflation by   
   excessive money print (electronic counterfeiting) to feed government   
   debt is that it causes consumption and spending to stall even though the   
   GDP might go up.  Canada saw less of this because of the strong dollar,   
   but the USD has lost 40% on the Yuan since the introduction of Bernanke   
   Doctrine some 5 to 6 years ago.   
      
   If last month you could buy 20 units of production, but then 5%   
   inflation hits.  You then only consume 19 units but GDP is the same.  1   
   in 20 get laid off as consumption of goods is down.  Two hits, less   
   standard of living for thos 19/20 still emloyed, and a job loss on EI.   
      
   GDP is a dollar measure, not a goods consumption measure and neither is   
   it a job effort measure.   
      
   Fact is government far over reacted to the small deflation seen and   
   crashed the economy with low interest rates.   
      
   Low rates was a double whammy.  Retirees income dries up, less tax and   
   spending adding to the problem.  More OAS as the lower incomes.  Less   
   GST.  Have $2M in USD in a retiment generating all of $20K interest   
   isn't much taxes.  But at 5% fair rates, that is $100K and taxable.   
   Businesses too, lower earnings as where else do you go?  Lower earning   
   bars.  That means less taxes.  Shoots government revenue right in the head.   
      
   Liberal Keynes worshiping fleabagger economists screwed up huge.   
      
   I must have some sense to this, in Nov 2008 I was 60% cash waiting for   
   the crash.  I read right through the government liquidity BS.  There was   
   never a shortage of lenders, the shortage of debtors paying their bills   
   and the risk was up, unwilling to pay fair rates.  Ponzi fraud scheme   
   first hit was 2007 so lots of notice to get the hell out for   
   conservative realism economists.   
      
   > Oh will they ever whine.  Instead of using this low interest   
   > rate window to reduce debt and build up savings and   
   > investment, they are using it to go deeper into debt.   
      
   Yep, and why like Japan, we are now locked into a Japan lost decades   
   scenario.  A long period of steady deterioration of wage value and an   
   up-tick in inflation.  Some prices might go down if the purcases are   
   optional and have the elasticity, but over all most costs of life are   
   going to go up.   
      
   >> $Been debt free since the early 90's.  I directed the monthly payments of   
   >> $the former mortgage to the retire early investment fund.  And why I   
   >> $retired at 54.   
   >   
   > Well done.   
      
   Thanks.   
      
   >> $>>  $USA, it is likely permanent.  Home markets might bounce back a bit,   
   but   
   >> $>>  $may take some time before they even come close to getting back to   
   where   
   >> $>>  $they were.   
   >> $>   
   >> $>  Of course, hyper inflation might change that.   
   >> $   
   >> $USA will recover, but like Russia, it could be a couple of decades.   
   >> $They have such a deep hole and moral corruption with debt, it could be   
   >> $longer but not shorter.  Bu yes, they will see inflation but not jobs   
   >> $worth having.   
   >> $   
   >> $The USA bubble has burst.   
   >   
   > If the story in this past weekend's Globe and Mail is any   
   > indication, the USA is in the middle of its own Japanese   
   > style "lost decade".  Median real income has been declining   
   > for close to a quarter century, and many people south of the   
   > border are struggling to stay gainfully employed.   
      
   Yep.  No quick fix.  And why Obama is insane if he thinks revenues are   
   going to improve soon.  The same olicies he has put in place and the   
   Bernanke Doctrine have fallen into the zero rate economy trap.   
      
   It will take a politician with guts to get out.  As government has to   
   balance the budget without a tax grab, and at this point it may not be   
   possible.  Pretty certain the US apex of economic security and viability   
   was 2006 or before that.  Democrat congress print money for debt sent   
   USA into the hole of hell.   
      
   Many millions, perhaps 50M+ good middle class Americans and Canadians   
   getting screwed for ponzi fraud bank/government debt.  I am surprised   
   there isn't an wide open riot.  But there have been dozens of little   
   ones, often not widely reported.   
      
   >> $As you get older, you should strive for safety.  It is easy to take   
   >> $risks like buying a stock at $3.50, watch it sink to $3, then pop to $36   
   >> $when you start selling off.  But the older you get post retirement the   
   >> $less risk you can take.  You might not be able to wait 5 years for a   
   >> $recovery.   
   >   
   > Definitely not.  When you are younger and still working, and   
   > your investment income isn't needed to meet day to day   
   > expenses, you have a lot more wiggle room.   
   >   
   > When you need that investment income to help put food on the   
   > table, you don't have the wiggle room.   
      
   Yep.  And a lot of seniors don't have any wiggle room, some haven't   
   planed.  I wonder how they live on about $1056 CPP?  Better off to say   
   "refugee"...literally and it even includes dental.   
      
   >> $But I am a few years off of that.  I plan on not using banks/lending   
   >> $until the debt-ponzi fraud has ceased.  I am too used to some of the   
   >> $6-8% private funds I am in that are relatively safe.   
   >> $   
   >> $And as safe, I also include the metric of value.  Depreciating money   
   >> $lent out at below real inflation is value lost risk.  Lend at 2% in real   
   >> $inflation of 5% is a 3% plus taxes value loss.   
   >   
   > Agreed.  With inflation, a return of lass the 2% (the CPI   
   > rate of inflation) is a loss in real terms.   
      
      
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