XPost: dc.urban-planning, wa.politics   
   From: rbeck3@yahoo.com   
      
   Don't put illiterate Mexicans in public office.  They can't do   
   the job.   
      
   Whoever is elected will have to decide whether to seek new   
   revenues, new employee concessions or new ways to run vital   
   programs.   
      
   By David Zahniser, Jessica Garrison and Ralph Vartabedian, Los   
   Angeles Times   
      
   February 24, 2013   
      
   Brad Smith used to consider himself a Los Angeles booster. But   
   lately, the 48-year-old grows melancholy when he drives around   
   the San Fernando Valley where he grew up.   
      
   The parks look worn-out. The sidewalks are broken. Street trees   
   go untended. And don't even get him started on the sorry state   
   of the Granada Hills pool.   
      
   "Every place I used to go as a kid, it's tired, it's old, it's   
   beaten up," said Smith, a project manager at an engineering firm   
   who made a losing run for City Council two years ago out of   
   frustration. "Other cities manage to maintain older facilities.   
   I'm not really certain why Los Angeles can't do a better job."   
      
   As Los Angeles voters head to the polls to pick a successor to   
   Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Smith's question, or some version of   
   it, is being asked over and over again in neighborhoods across   
   the city.   
      
   Here's the short answer: To stay afloat financially, the city   
   cut hundreds of millions of dollars out of everyday services and   
   ongoing maintenance.   
      
   But the deeper causes are more complex, and include costly, ill-   
   timed spending commitments at City Hall and a failure to adjust   
   to the region's weakening economic foundation.   
      
   A Times review of the city's finances found:   
      
   • Just before the recession hit, city leaders agreed to add   
   hundreds of police officers to the payroll and give much of the   
   city's civilian workforce 25% raises over five years. The twin   
   decisions — supported by mayoral candidates Eric Garcetti, Jan   
   Perry and Wendy Greuel — added major stress to the budget as the   
   downturn began.   
      
   • Over the next five years, officials slashed 5,300 positions,   
   or nearly 15% of the city workforce, and scaled back services   
   ranging from sidewalk repairs to 911 rescue units. Despite the   
   cuts and additional concessions by employee unions, the city's   
   salary costs remain the same as when the economic crisis began:   
   $2.7 billion a year.   
      
   • The city faces even more service cuts if it fails to achieve   
   what critics say are optimistic predictions of pension   
   investment returns in coming years.   
      
   The next mayor will have to confront how and whether to restore   
   services and keep police staffing at a historic high. Paying for   
   it all will require either new revenues, or new concessions from   
   city employees, or new approaches to running vital city programs.   
      
   The top mayoral candidates tend to sidestep specifics on these   
   questions, describing "growing the economy" as their primary   
   solution. Other city leaders are hoping for passage a half-cent   
   sales tax increase. That tax is warranted after so many tough   
   decisions, said Miguel Santana, the top budget official at City   
   Hall.   
      
   "We can see the light at the end of the tunnel," he said.   
      
   Community activists say the next mayor needs to break the cycle   
   of decreasing services and raising fees, fines and taxes to   
   offset rising personnel costs. "What the city has done for the   
   last five years is ... tread water," said San Pedro resident   
   Doug Epperhart, a city commissioner overseeing Los Angeles'   
   network of neighborhood councils.   
      
   ::   
      
   Underlying Los Angeles' current troubles, according to many   
   economists, are well-documented, long-term shifts in the   
   region's economy.   
      
   After half a century as one of the nation's wealthiest and most   
   technologically important cities, the Los Angeles area began to   
   falter after the end of the Cold War. Since 1990, the nation's   
   total employment has grown 23%, while the number of local jobs   
   has shrunk 7%, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, which   
   tracks economic trends.   
      
   The situation appears to have worsened recently, UCLA economist   
   William Yu said. The great recession hit Los Angeles especially   
   hard and since then, its recovery has been weaker. "The economy   
   is not healthy at all," Yu added.   
      
   Over the past two decades, Los Angeles lost almost every sector   
   that mattered to the middle class: automobiles, steel,   
   shipbuilding and, of course, aerospace. In all, 56% of   
   manufacturing jobs, or nearly half a million positions, have   
   disappeared.   
      
   The change is reflected in income statistics for that period.   
   Nationally, personal income has increased by 2.4% per year,   
   adjusted for inflation. Locally, it grew at half that rate.   
      
   As long as the city's economy was growing strongly, it was a lot   
   easier for City Hall to stay in the black. From 1980 to 1990,   
   the city's budget, adjusted for inflation, rose 4.8% on a   
   compounded annual basis, according to figures compiled by The   
   Times. But between 1990 and 2010, the budget was increasing by   
   1.2% annually.   
      
   Some city officials and municipal union leaders continue to   
   believe the economy is fundamentally strong. Villaraigosa   
   spokesman Peter Sanders said the decrease in manufacturing in   
   Los Angeles has coincided with similar declines nationwide. One   
   strong spot, he said, is Los Angeles' fashion and apparel   
   industries. "We've focused on developing a diverse economy that   
   will be able to withstand the ebbs and flow of economy," Sanders   
   added.   
      
      
   But with lower income growth, Angelenos are generating   
   comparatively less tax revenue for the city, said Madeline   
   Janis, national policy director for the Los Angeles Alliance for   
   a New Economy, an advocacy group that focuses on the city's   
   economy and environment.   
      
   There were plenty of signals that leaner times were coming. In   
   1992, an aerospace task force warned that the region would   
   experience an unprecedented economic blow, undercutting the   
   housing market and starving governments of tax revenue, recalled   
   Daniel Flaming, a key author of the report and president of the   
   Economic Roundtable.   
      
   Janis said city leaders did too little to address that long-term   
   transformation. "We've had ... an enormous loss of good-paying   
   jobs. Without a substantive program to take us on another path,   
   we're going to continue on a spiral downward."   
      
   ::   
      
   The structural economic problems were in some ways masked by the   
   region's booming real estate market, and Los Angeles leaders   
   focused on other policy priorities.   
      
   Shortly after he became mayor, Villaraigosa announced plans to   
   hire 1,000 officers, a key promise of his 2005 campaign. He   
   vowed to achieve that goal by hiking the fee for trash   
   collection charged on homes and small apartment buildings. After   
   council members tripled the fee, Villaraigosa pledged not to   
   roll back LAPD staffing in the future.   
      
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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