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   comp.ai      Awaiting the gospel from Sarah Connor      1,954 messages   

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   Message 1,041 of 1,954   
   rhooker123@hotmail.com to All   
   Re: Uncertainty/Expected utility represe   
   15 May 06 23:48:32   
   
   When I wrote a paper on agent modelling in consumer behaviour, which no   
   one read many years ago, we modelled uncertainty as a random percentage   
   assigned to any outcome.  Fuzzy logic stuff.   
      
   >From my post graduate life in business, ick, I find that uncertainty is   
   assigned to an outcome as a simple process of subtraction.  People feel   
   that they can make X for investment Y but they have uncertainty of T,   
   so they may make X+T to X-T, it is my experience that people manage   
   this in reality by taking the likely benefits to be X-T when they take   
   uncertainty as a factor, and only go higher when they ignore risk.   
      
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