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|    comp.ai.fuzzy    |    Fuzzy logic... all warm and fuzzy-like    |    1,275 messages    |
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|    Message 129 of 1,275    |
|    EarlCox to Bartosz Bien    |
|    Re: multiple consequents?    |
|    05 Jan 04 18:40:32    |
      From: earlcox@earlcoxreports.com              Well that's not totally true. In a fuzzy expert system (mine for instance)       you could       write something like,               if costs(t-1) are very high        and income(t) is somewhat low then do;        risk is elevated;        if reserves(t+1) are low then        cashflow is reduced;        end do;              the value of the outcome fuzzy set "risk" is correlated with the truth of       the two antecedent propositions. The second consequent if-then statement       uses this antecedent truth as a weighting or scaling factor for the truth of       its premise. Thus the outcome fuzzy set "cashflows" is correlated with the       truth of the nested rule statement as well as the truth of the controlling       rule statement (which makes sense, the nested rule cannot be truer than the       truth of the fuzzy proposition that caused the nested rule to be executed.       And the outcome of the nested rule cannot be truer than the truth of the       premise that contributed to its under-generation fuzzy set.)              At the same time, it is well to bear in mind that maintainability of a large       and complex fuzzy system is important. The ability to specify several       outcomes that are correlated by the same predicate almost always means that       the rule set is smaller and easier to understand, debug, and extend. This is       particularly true if the common predicate contains a number of propositions       with, perhaps, complex expressions or lead/lag time relationships. In a       financial system, as an example, a rise in the debit to equity or debt to       income ratio in a set of previous periods, compounded with a rise in the       projected cost of capital in the next quarter compounded by a reduction in       available inventories might produce several outcomes: a reduction in the       client's credit worthiness, an acceleration of a loan repayment schedule,       the postponement of investment opportunities, and so forth. It would be       extremely awkward not to mention difficult to maintain and understand if       each complex premise had to be repeated in the rule base for each of the       outcomes.              Assertions that multiple outcomes are simply an AND condition and can be       handled by repeating the rule arise from individuals who work only in small       control systems (such as academic exercises) or who have never actually       built and delivered operational fuzzy models for the business world.              Enough said.       Earl              "Bartosz Bien" |
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