From: arne@vajhoej.dk   
      
   On 9/7/2025 8:42 AM, John Dallman wrote:   
   > In article <109fa1s$2hamk$2@dont-email.me>, arne@vajhoej.dk (Arne Vajhøj)   
   > wrote:   
   >> I consider it a reasonable assumption that attrition rate   
   >> on a platform with a future is equal to or less than attrition   
   >> rate on a doomed platform.   
   >   
   > That is a reasonable assumption, but not an absolutely solid one. There   
   > are plausible reasons why it could be otherwise:   
   >   
   > One is simply management turnover. If a company has been continuing to   
   > use VMS (but not expanding its use, while it seemed doomed), a new   
   > manager, wanting to make their mark, might decide it's time to migrate   
   > off VMS, irrespective of its future.   
      
   That may very well be how the attrition happen.   
      
   But it does not indicate that it would accelerate.   
      
   > Also, now that VMS is not intrinsically doomed, management become willing   
   > to think about it, rather than ignoring the problem for their own peace   
   > of mind. At that point, they may decide it's time for a migration.   
      
   That seem a little far fetched for individual companies and   
   very far fetched as an industry trend.   
      
   > One-year commercial licenses, perversely, make that more likely. A year   
   > is not enough time to migrate a complex system, starting from zero. If   
   > there's a perceived risk of VSI going broke, then a migration plan needs   
   > to be made and periodically updated. Once someone gets emotionally   
   > invested in that plan, it's likely to get executed to remove a risk.   
      
   One year is way too little for a migration project.   
      
   My understanding (mostly based on what VSI has told the french when   
   getting grilled over licenses) is that companies have options:   
   * buy 1 year license   
   * buy 5 year license   
   * buy 5 year license and extend with 1 year every year   
   * buy a permanent license if they can argue that their business is   
      "nuclear power plant" critical   
      
   There has been a lot of talk about the new license model, but   
   it seems like there are options and if the customer talk to their   
   friendly VSI sales person, then they can find a suitable solution.   
      
   > To maintain a niche in the industry, VMS needs to be demonstrably   
   > superior to Linux in some way that matters to a reasonably large number   
   > of potential customers. I don't know what that might be, but supporting   
   > legacy customers doesn't last forever.   
      
   Attrition among existing customers will always be greater than   
   zero, so long term they need new customers to stay in business.   
      
   Arne   
      
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