XPost: comp.os.linux.advocacy   
   From: recscuba_google@huntzinger.com   
      
   On 1/14/26 17:46, Lawrence D’Oliveiro wrote:   
   > On Wed, 14 Jan 2026 17:11:07 -0500, -hh wrote:   
   >   
   >> On 1/13/26 17:29, Lawrence D’Oliveiro wrote:   
   >>>   
   >>> Given how minuscule Adobe’s market share is, I would say that is an   
   >>> even less useful proxy for overall market share.   
   >>   
   >> Adobe had over 40M paid subscribers in 2025.  That alone is already   
   >> 55%-70% of the estimates for the total Linux PC user base ...   
   >   
   > I was going to say, that’s not a very large number. Half of those   
   > would be Mac users. So basically Adobe is an irrelevance to about 99%   
   > of the Windows installed base. And 100% of the Linux installed base.   
      
   That's why I also noted that Adobe also distributes free products, but   
   you snipped that part out ... hmmm.   
      
   FYI, Adobe also still sells some non-subscription software that's not   
   included in the above (eg, Elements), plus there's also 'market share'   
   from pirated software which gets added in too.   
      
   > Like I said, it’s not a very useful proxy for overall market share of   
   > any of those platforms.   
      
   Oh, and using Steam is a more useful proxy?  How?   
      
   That would require that the customer demographics of each OS are   
   effectively identical, which they aren't...and gosh, you snipped out   
   this point too.  I'm seeing a pattern here.   
      
      
   > Unlike Steam, which seems to be much more platform-agnostic. They’re   
   > not picky like Adobe: they’ll take anybody’s money.   
      
   That doesn't change the customer demographics and the business   
   opportunities thereof.   
      
   FWIW, my fuzzy recollection on Steam & Linux was that there were a lot   
   of concerns/resistance because they suspected a high piracy rate from   
   Linux.  I don't know if that concern was real, or got fixed, or if   
   they're simply tolerating some rate of piracy, etc.   
      
      
   >> ... plus there's also Adobe's free reader products that many   
   >> additional PC users will have installed. Its therefore reasonable to   
   >> conclude that there's more Adobe users (paid+free) than there are   
   >> total Linux PC users.   
   >   
   > Is that saying much? Are you saying that the desktop Linux installed   
   > base is actually large enough to be taken seriously?   
   >   
   >>>> With reportedly ~100M active Mac users ...   
   >>>   
   >>> That’s pretty unlikely. That could only happen if Mac users are   
   >>> keeping their machines in use for, say, an average of a decade.   
   >>   
   >> Nowhere close to a decade, because Apple reports quarterly sales in   
   >> the 6-7M range, which is ~25M/yr, so 100M units took just four (4)   
   >> years of sales.   
   >   
   > Interesting, because another Mac fan has been trying to claim,   
   > elsewhere in this group, that Mac users do indeed keep their machines   
   > for quite a long while -- he specifically said 5-7 years.   
      
   That's been my personal experience too, both for privately owned Mac   
   hardware and employer-owned hardware.  On the very direct Mac vs PC   
   laptop business travel endurance test, I found Apple to be more robust.   
      
      
   >> Similarly, even if one adjusts sales down to 5M/quarter for 20M/yr to   
   >> claim that it requires five years of sales, that's been achieved too,   
   >> because Apple hasn't had a quarter where they reported less than 5M in   
   >> sales since June 2018...and seven years at 5M/Q = 140M units.   
   >   
   > Apple stopped publicly reporting unit sales many years ago. So you’re not   
   > going to find evidence to back up any such figures.   
      
   There's ways to do fiscal forensics on SEC filings on the dollars to   
   work it out.   
      
   >> MacOS marketshare on Steam, sure, but there's data sources other than   
   >> Steam ...   
   >   
   > Certainly not Adobe, as you tried to suggest. Or Apple, even. So where   
   > else are you getting your supposed figures from?   
      
   See above ... its all better than Larry's postings on USENET.   
      
      
   -hh   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
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