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Robots in 2026  the rise of Terminator this is not

Date:
Mon, 29 Dec 2025 15:30:00 +0000

Description:
2026 should be a big year in robotics with humanoid robots in the home and in
factories, but it also won't be as transformative as some think.

FULL STORY

Like a DJ wrapping up a particularly tight set, the Tesla Optimus robot
reached to its ears and removed an invisible pair of headphones...and then
keeled over , revealing, it seems, its teleoperation and, perhaps, peeling
back the curtain on the fiction of many cutting-edge humanoid robotics. It
also makes clear what the immediate future of robotics holds, and it's 
neither as awesome nor as bad as you were expecting. 

That incident, caught on video when numerous Tesla Optimus robots were set up
as engaging bartenders who served drinks and chatted you up, but were all
likely controlled by headset-wearing teleoperators, demonstrated what many
people think about most of the current bleeding-edge humanoid robots like
Optimus , 1X Neo Bot, and Figure 03 from Figure AI: the coolest stuff they do
is mere fiction. 

This potentially uncomfortable truth weighed on my mind as I considered
robotics in 2026. Few tech categories are as intensely-watched nor are pumped
so full of expectations and still unrealized promise.

Entering the uncanny valley

Broadly speaking, I don't expect 2026 to be the year of humanoid robots. They
won't be ready for the home, in part because they'll still lack the requisite
skill to match or surpass what we can do on our own. 

However, while I've seen robot expectations pumped up to unrealistic levels,
others think we got some dose of reality, 

"In many ways, 2025 was the year that expectations about humanoid robots
started coming down to Earth," Brian Heater, Managing Editor for A3
(Association for Advancing Automation), told me via text. 

A longtime colleague and friend, Heater has been covering robotics for 
decades and is now part of the industry (he also has a newsletter and a
podcast on the topic). So he's developing an insider's view on the future and
development of consumer and manufacturing robots. There are still companies
that are, he told me, "bullish about the [humanoid] form factor, but
conversations have taken a more pragmatic shape with regard to efficacy and
timelines."

Heater is not the first to tell me that many robot companies are considering
swapping wheels for legs. Obviously, it's harder to teach a robot to walk (
and not run into mirrors ) than it is for them to wheel around. Over the
years, I've seen many smaller consumer bots that balance on two wheels (the
original Segway is one). 

So the first prediction for 2026 is that while we'll see more development on
the humanoid robot side, there may be other companies that move faster,
especially in the manufacturing space with robots that feature humanoid or at
least dual-arm bodies on top and wheels on the bottom. 

Humanoid robots will creep slowly into homes (Heater sees the deployment "at
very limited scales"), but as I've written before, few consumers will be 
ready to shell out $20,000, even for a glimpse of our humanoid robot future.

If anything, 2026 will mark the year of the home-teleoperated robot. Early
reports on the 1X Neo Betas indicate that most of what it can currently do is
heavily reliant on teleoperation. Tesla Optimus robots, which do not have a
clear timeline for home deployment, are also, it seems, more Christian than
Cyrano, requiring remote control to keep the fiction of ability going. 

The question for 2026 humanoid robot customers is how comfortable they are
with a slow-moving, incredibly expensive product that requires almost 
constant remote access by a third-party company to perform even the most 
basic tasks. 

Heater explained that one of the chief obstacles standing between these 
robots and wider adoption is mobile manipulation/dexterity. 

"Theres not nearly enough data to train these systems," wrote Heater, "UC
Berkeleys Ken Goldberg calls this the '100,000 year data gap,' referring to
the millennia of information that have been used to train LLMs, versus what
physical AI currently has to go off of."

Heading into 2026, we've been fed a steady diet of incredible robot 
capability videos, showing them running, dancing, flipping, and even
performing Karate moves . It set unrealistic expectations for our near robot
future. 

Heater even has a term for this: "This is due, in part, to a phenomenon known
as Moravecs Paradox . Boiled down, it holds that some things that are
relatively simple for humans are complex for AI and robots, and vice
versa...Just because you see a robot do a backflip doesnt mean it possesses
the motor skills to tie a tie (it likely doesnt)." 

1X, Tesla, and Figure AI will continue making promises and videos depicting
humanoid robots doing amazing things, but few consumers will buy them in 
2026. Those that can afford them will very quickly escort them to a closet
where they will sit, untouched in the darkness until archaeologists unearth
them a millennium from now. 

One company I do not expect to disappoint is Boston Dynamics. The humanoid
robot pioneer has never sought to sell its bots to consumers and is far more
transparent about its work; a recent video about why the all-electric robot
stands up the way it does is especially illuminating. As they explain the
video: "Humans kind of stand up without thinking about it, but robots really
need to think."

In 2026, Boston Dynamics will unveil even more incredible robot athletic 
feats that will surely inspire robot fans and the industry, but it will be
years before it sells Atlas to anyone except researchers. 

Obviously, Boston Dynamics will also continue to update its Spot robot , 
which has shown up in factories and municipalities. That robot faces
increasing competition from companies like Unitree . 

2026 will see far greater use of robots of all kinds in manufacturing, 
fueled, in part, by improvements in safety. Heater told me, "Top firms in the
space (and my current employers at A3) have been working on a new standard 
for these systems to allow them to more safely work alongside humans outside
of a fenced-in environment." 

This means that instead of more videos of humanoid robots quietly working in
closed-off spaces on repetitive tasks, we might finally see some robots
working safely alongside humans who have no fear of harm,  accidental or
otherwise.

The kind of robots we will get in 2026

Leaving aside humanoids and factory bots, there will be a whole range of 
home, entertainment, and work robots, mostly building upon previous work, but
with AI energizing innovation and capability. 

Training simpler robots in a small set of tasks is easier than ever thanks to
AI-supported visualization, which can help robots prepare for the unknown and
even learn on the fly based on previous training and on-board models. 

So, yes, robots in 2026 will not be as wild and exciting as you hoped, but it
should set the stage for an important decade in robotics development. 

As for that Tesla Optimus robot lying on its back, don't worry. As soon as 
its operator put his headset back on, I'm sure Optimus returned to serving
drinks, making small talk, and inspiring the next generation of roboticists. 

======================================================================
Link to news story:
https://www.techradar.com/ai-platforms-assistants/robots-in-2026-the-rise-of-t
erminator-this-is-not

$$
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