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   From: progress@progressives.com   
      
   Small outbreaks of the plague still occur in the western United   
   States, and now new research shows these clusters don't happen   
   at random. Instead, they tend to pop up in areas that have   
   certain mix of climates, animals and elevation, a new study   
   finds.   
      
   Every year, an average of seven people in the western United   
   States are infected with the bacteria that cause plague   
   (Yersinia pestis). The bacteria — infamous for killing millions   
   of people in Europe during the Middle Ages — typically live in   
   rodents and fleas.   
      
   In the new study, researchers wanted "to identify and map those   
   areas with the greatest potential for human exposure to this   
   infection," Michael Walsh, an assistant professor in the   
   Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics in the School of   
   Public Health at the SUNY Downstate Medical Center in New York,   
   said in a statement. The researchers used surveillance data of   
   plague in wild and domestic animals from all over the American   
   West. [Pictures of a Killer: A Plague Gallery]   
      
   The researchers determined that plague cases in the United   
   States tend to happen in areas that have large populations of   
   deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), rainy weather, moderate   
   elevations and ground largely covered with man-made surfaces,   
   such as roads and buildings.   
      
   Plague first came to the United States in 1900, when steamships   
   carrying infected rats docked at U.S. port cities, according to   
   the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The bacteria   
   then spread from urban rats to rural rodents, eventually   
   becoming endemic (or constantly present) in animals in the rural   
   American West.   
      
   These days, most human cases of plague in the United States   
   happen in two regions: one area stretches across southern   
   Colorado and the northern parts of New Mexico and Arizona, while   
   the other region includes California, southern Oregon and   
   western Nevada, the researchers said.   
      
   But little is known about what specific factors — such as   
   climate, land type and elevation — lead to small clusters of   
   plague cases within these broad areas. To investigate, the   
   researchers mapped 66 confirmed cases of plague in wild animals   
   and pets that officials had documented between 2000 and 2015.   
   Then, the researchers zeroed in on several conditions to   
   determine what had contributed to outbreaks.   
      
   Plague risk factors   
      
   The resulting models showed that the presence of deer mice was   
   the most influential factor contributing to plague cases,   
   followed by elevation, the distance between the place where an   
   infected animal was found and a man-made surface, and the   
   average rainfall during the area's wettest and driest seasons.   
      
   Areas at higher elevations were associated with increased risk   
   of plague in animals, but only among elevations lower than 1.2   
   miles (2 kilometers), the researchers found.   
      
   "The reason for such a threshold is not entirely clear," but   
   might have to do with habitat availability, the researchers   
   wrote in the study. For instance, deer mice prefer living around   
   pinyon and juniper pines, trees that grow at moderate but not   
   high elevations, the researchers said.   
      
   Moreover, rainfall influenced plague risk. Places that had wet   
   weather during the rainy season had a higher plague risk, but   
   only up to 4 inches (100 millimeters) of rain in a three-month   
   period. Beyond that threshold, plague risk declined, the   
   researchers found.   
      
   Likewise, increased rainfall during the dry season also   
   corresponded to increased plague risk, but only up to a   
   threshold of 2 inches (50 mm) of rain, after which plague risk   
   dropped to zero. It's likely that some (but not too much) rain   
   leads to better food availability for rodents, the researchers   
   said, which would explain this threshold. [10 Deadly Diseases   
   That Hopped Across Species]   
      
   Finally, areas of animal habitat that were close to man-made   
   surfaces also had an increased plague risk.   
      
   "To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study   
   to demonstrate an influence of developed land on animal plague   
   occurrence in the U.S.," the researchers said. It's likely that   
   developed areas bring wild animals closer together to people and   
   domestic animals, increasing the risk of spreading plague, the   
   researchers said.   
      
   The findings may help public health officials monitor areas in   
   the American West that are at high risk of plague infection,   
   Walsh said.   
      
   The study was published online Dec. 14 in the journal PeerJ.   
      
   http://www.livescience.com/53224-plague-risk-   
   factors.html?google_editors_picks=true   
        
      
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