The following is a very insightful article regarding how what is currently
happening in Egypt could eventually have a profound effect on the entire
Middle Eastern situation, particularly as it concerns Israel.

For example, if Hosni Mubarak falls -- as he should -- and the Muslim
Brotherhood comes to power in one form or another, Israel will once again be
surrounded by her Muslim enemies on all sides, as has not happened in thirty
years since Egypt signed a peace accord with Israel, followed by Jordan some
years later. I discuss these issues somewhere in my articles concerning the
Middle East.

However, I don't fully trust what the mass media is currently saying. I have
this suspicion that Hosni Mubarak may yet have some very dirty tactics up
his sleeve, in order to preserve his power. I hope that I am wrong, and that
the Egyptian Army really is siding with the protesters, and that they will
drive Mubarak and his ilk out of the country, and not replace the thug
Mubarak with another thug from within the military ranks.

Time will certainly tell.


Israel Shaken as Turbulence Rocks an Ally

By ETHAN BRONNER - NYT

January 30, 2011


JERUSALEM -- The street revolt in Egypt has thrown the Israeli government
and military into turmoil, with top officials closeted in round-the-clock
strategy sessions aimed at rethinking their most significant regional
relationship.

Israel's military planning relies on peace with Egypt; nearly half the
natural gas it uses is imported from Egypt; and the principle of trading
conquered land for diplomatic ties began with its 1979 peace treaty with
Egypt. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has met with President Hosni
Mubarak of Egypt more than with any other foreign leader, except President
Obama. If Mr. Mubarak were driven from power, the effect on Israel could be
profound.

"For the United States, Egypt is the keystone of its Middle East policy," a
senior official said. "For Israel, it's the whole arch."

The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because Mr. Netanyahu has
ordered his ministers and their officials to stay publicly silent on Egypt
while events there play out.

Many analysts here said that even if Mr. Mubarak were forced to leave
office, those who replaced him could maintain Egypt's peace treaty with
Israel, since it is the basis for more than $1 billion in annual aid to
Cairo from Washington and much foreign investment.

But others noted that the best-organized political force in Egypt is the
Muslim Brotherhood, which is hostile to Israel and close to Hamas, the
Palestinian rulers in Gaza whose weapons-smuggling the Egyptian government
works to block.

As the government evacuated the families of envoys from Egypt over the
weekend, public affairs broadcasts and newspapers in Israel focused on the
unfolding events there. Most of the predictions were dire. Two of three
newspapers with the largest circulations, Yediot Aharonot and Maariv, had
identical front-page headlines: "A New Middle East."

It was an ironic reference to the phrase used frequently in the 1990s by
President Shimon Peres and other advocates of coexistence who argued that if
Israel made peace with its neighbors, a more prosperous and enlightened
region would bloom. Events of the past five years -- the takeover of Gaza by
Hamas, the rise of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran's influence in Iraq and the
shift by Turkey toward Iran and Syria -- have turned many Israelis
rightward, fearing that the more time passes the more the region is against
them.

Israelis worry that Jordan is in a precarious state and a successful
overthrow in Egypt could spread there. And if the Muslim Brotherhood were to
gain power in Egypt, that would probably mean not only a stronger Islamist
force in Gaza but also in the West Bank, currently run by the
Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority, as well as in Jordan, meaning Israel
would feel surrounded in a way it has not in decades.

If Egypt also turned unfriendly, that would quite likely stop in its tracks
any further Israeli talk of peace negotiations with the Palestinians,
officials and analysts said. A peace treaty with the West Bank would involve
yielding territory and military control to a relatively weak Palestinian
Authority. Trading land for peace with autocrats like Mr. Mubarak, some
analysts say, is not a sound basis for enduring treaties.

There has long been concern that popular sentiment in Egypt is anti-Israel.
Eli Shaked, a former Israeli ambassador to Cairo, wrote in the Yediot
Aharonot newspaper, "The only people in Egypt who are committed to peace are
the people in Mubarak's inner circle, and if the next president is not one
of them, we are going to be in trouble."

Mr. Mubarak has just named Omar Suleiman, his right-hand man and the
country's intelligence chief, as his vice president; Israelis would be
reassured if he were to inherit power. Other establishment figures, while
less friendly to Israel, would most likely maintain some kind of continuity.
But Israelis feared that nothing was certain.

They noted that if Mr. Mubarak were to go, Mr. Netanyahu could be left
without an ally in the region. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey
has been highly critical of Israel since the Gaza war two years ago and even
more so after Israeli commandos killed nine Turks aboard a flotilla trying
to break Israel's blockade of Gaza last May. King Abdullah II of Jordan,
while honoring his country's peaceful relations with Israel, has been
critical of Mr. Netanyahu since he took office two years ago and has
declined to meet with him as well.

For the military here, a serious change in Egypt means a strategic shift in
planning. Giora Eiland, a former national security adviser and a senior
fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv
University, said even if Egypt did not cancel its peace treaty with Israel
tomorrow or in five years, a government dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood
would mean "you can't exclude the possibility of a war with Egypt."

"During the last 30 years," he said, "when we had any military
confrontation, whether in the first or second Lebanon wars, the intifadas,
in all those events we could be confident that Egypt would not try to
intervene militarily."

Dan Schueftan, director of the National Security Studies Center at the
University of Haifa, said thanks to its treaty with Egypt, Israel had
reduced its defense expenditure from 23 percent of its gross national
product in the 1970s to 9 percent today and made serious cuts in its army.
The relationship with Egypt also allowed Israel to withdraw from Gaza in
2005, since Egypt covered Gaza from the south.

Despite Mr. Mubarak's supportive relations with Israel, many Israelis on
both the left and right are sympathetic to the Egyptians' desire to rid
themselves of his autocracy and build a democracy. But they fear what will
follow if things move too quickly.

"We know this has to do with the desire for freedom, prosperity and
opportunity, and we support people who don't want to live under tyranny, but
who will take advantage of what is happening in its wake?" a top official
said. "The prevailing sense here is that you need a certain stability
followed by reform. Snap elections are likely to bring a very different
outcome."

Israeli analysts also noted that Egypt had worked hard to oppose Iranian
ambitions, and the loss of Egypt as a counterweight would have consequences.

Mr. Schueftan of the University of Haifa made this point, saying, "If this
cornerstone is removed or even in doubt, the overall picture for Israel
changes and the threats become much more realistic than before."



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