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|  Message 12829  |
|  Sean Dennis to All  |
|  3 Day Space Weather Forecast  |
|  06 Mar 25 00:19:01  |
 
MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 668f3c6e
PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
CHRS: CP437 2
TZUTC: -0500
TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 06-Mar 08 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 06-Mar 08 2025
Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08
00-03UT 3.00 1.33 2.00
03-06UT 2.67 1.33 1.67
06-09UT 2.33 1.67 2.00
09-12UT 2.33 1.67 2.33
12-15UT 1.67 1.67 2.33
15-18UT 2.00 1.33 2.67
18-21UT 2.33 1.33 3.00
21-00UT 2.33 1.33 4.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 06-Mar 08 2025
Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 05 2025 1150 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 06-Mar 08 2025
Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 08 Mar.
--- MBSE BBS v1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)
SEEN-BY: 1/110 18/200 105/81 106/201 128/187 129/305 153/7715 154/110
SEEN-BY: 218/700 226/30 227/114 229/110 111 114 200 206 300 307 312
SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512 291/111 292/854
SEEN-BY: 320/219 322/757 342/200 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26
SEEN-BY: 5020/400 5075/35
PATH: 18/200 229/426
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