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|  Message 13218  |
|  Sean Dennis to All  |
|  3 Day Space Weather Forecast  |
|  16 Dec 25 00:19:01  |
 MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 66953d77 PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64) CHRS: CP437 2 TZUTC: -0500 TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64) :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Dec 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 16-Dec 18 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 16-Dec 18 2025 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 00-03UT 1.67 1.67 5.00 (G1) 03-06UT 3.00 2.00 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 2.67 2.00 4.00 09-12UT 2.00 2.00 3.67 12-15UT 2.00 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 1.33 3.33 3.00 18-21UT 0.67 4.00 2.67 21-00UT 1.67 4.33 3.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on Dec 18 due to the passage of a coronal hole high speed stream. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 16-Dec 18 2025 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 16-Dec 18 2025 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 R1-R2 20% 20% 20% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. --- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64) * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200) SEEN-BY: 1/110 18/200 105/81 106/201 128/187 129/14 305 153/7715 154/110 SEEN-BY: 218/700 226/30 227/114 229/110 112 134 200 206 300 307 312 SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512 291/111 292/854 SEEN-BY: 320/219 322/757 342/200 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 SEEN-BY: 5020/400 5075/35 PATH: 18/200 229/426 |
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